Brazil

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:34 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 20:45:22 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

The New Beef Powerhouse? As Brazil Overtakes the U.S., Here’s What It Means

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 21:54:26 GMT

The global beef landscape is witnessing a historic changing of the guard. According to recent reporting from Reuters , Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading beef producer.

While the U.S. industry grapples with a significant herd contraction, Brazil’s production has defied earlier bearish forecasts to take the top spot on the global stage.

In 2025, U.S. beef production fell by 3.9%, dropping to 11.8 million tons. In stark contrast, Brazil’s production, which analysts at Rabobank previously expected to decline, surged by 0.5% to reach 12.5 million tons in carcass weight equivalent.

And as Mike North of Ever.ag and Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, told “U.S. Farm Report,” Brazil’s growth isn’t a shock, but it is something that is changing the global dynamics of the beef industry.

The Feed Engine: Why Brazil’s Growth Isn’t a Shock

For many in the industry, Brazil’s ascent is the result of years of aggressive agricultural expansion. Mike North, of Ever.ag, notes the foundation of Brazil’s livestock success is its massive grain production capacity.

“Livestock industries depend on the availability of feed, and let’s look at the track record,” North explains. “They’re continuing to grow bigger and bigger crops each year. As we look at their exports, yes, they’ve become a growing partner to China, especially in our absence, but they have enough there to also feed a growing livestock industry.”

North points out Brazil’s “double-crop” system, planting soybeans followed immediately by a second crop of corn (safrinha), has created a consistent, high-volume feed supply that the U.S. is finding harder to compete with.

“The writing’s kind of been on the wall as they grow more and more soybeans and then backfill that during the second crop with more and more corn,” North says. “The gates are open, and they walk through them. This doesn’t come as a shock.”

However, North warns that volume isn’t everything. Brazil still faces hurdles in global perception.

“It’ll be an interesting thing to see what they do as those cattle leave the feedlot, go to processing, and whether or not they can meet all the phytosanitary concerns that the world demands as that meat leaves the country,” he explains.

A Shift in Market Sentiment: From Bullish to Neutral

For the past several years, Basse has been one of the most vocal bulls in the cattle market. However, the combination of Brazil’s dominance and shifting domestic factors has caused him to re-evaluate his position.

“I’ve been bullish for about the last four years,” Basse admits, “but I’m starting to see where there’s some solutions to the tightness in the beef market in particular. My outlook is starting to be a little more neutral, or let’s say, in a wide-swinging market.”

Basse notes international beef is increasingly filling the void left by the shrinking U.S. herd. Imports from Brazil and Australia are becoming a “solution” to high domestic prices, potentially capping the market’s upside.

“As you look at Australian and Brazilian imports of beef, it is going to be something that will keep this market under the high that we scored last October,” Basse says. “I’d be a little careful here on feeders, because while people are still optimistic, I’m becoming less bullish of cattle just based on imports.”

The “Ozempic” Factor and the Dairy Influence on Supply

Beyond international trade, Basse says internal shifts in the U.S. protein market are also underway. Interestingly, he says that while general protein demand remains high, partially influenced by health trends and weight-loss medications like Ozempic, the U.S. is finding new ways to supplement beef supplies.

“As we look at the dairy herd, we’re keeping back numbers,” Basse says. “We’re seeing more cross-calves being produced by the dairy industry. Between that and the expansion of imports into the United States, the supply picture is changing.”

Looking Toward the Horizon

While Brazil’s production numbers are the headline, several wild cards remain for 2025. Basse points to the upcoming USDA inventory report as a critical data point that will determine the next leg of the market. Additionally, biological threats remain a concern for the coming year.

“Screwworm is something we’ll have to deal with as we turn the page to April or May of next year,” Basse cautions.

For now, the U.S. cattle industry finds itself in a period of transition, watching a southern competitor take the lead while navigating a domestic market that might have already seen its historical highs. Yet, as the U.S. cattle herd remains tight, Brazil could continue to outproduce the U.S., just based on the fact it will take years for the U.S. to rebuild the cattle herd. And some economists think the herd might never get back to cattle numbers the U.S. saw at its highs.

Brazil Surpassing U.S. As Top Beef Producer, Easing Global Supply Squeeze

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 15:53:01 GMT

Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer last year, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices.

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4% for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7% drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, Rising Carcass Weight Drive Output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9% to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28% of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22% in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

A drone image shows cattle entering a feedlot at CMA Farm in Barretos, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

(Joel Silva/Reuters)

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate - the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season - to rise to 54% in 2027 from an expected 50% in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90% proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40%.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66%, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96%, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just 4% between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24%, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5% and cattle numbers will grow 5% over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil Key As Top Producers Scale Down

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4% - the biggest annual drop in decades - after rising 0.4% in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2%.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano in Barretos and Peter Hobson in Canberra; Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio)

Cattle Break to Near Term Highs With Cash, NWS: Soybeans Grind to Fresh Lows

Fri, 02 Jan 2026 21:07:55 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended lower on Friday with a big rally in cattle futures.

Soybeans Make Fresh Lows
Soybeans made new lows for the move on Friday and ended the week losing another 27 cents on the March contract. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the soybean market saw technical selling but fundamental pressure came from the favorable weather in South America. Brazil has been getting rains and is on pace to have a record crop he says.

Weak Exports Also Plague Soybeans
Soybeans are also seeing liquidation by long traders as the export pace is running at a 14 year low with year to date sales at 986 million bu. and down 32% from last year. Varilek says this will be difficult to make up even with China fulfilling their entire purchase commitment. “I think the market got caught up in these trade deals and the idea we were going to get them done and we’re going to move some beans and then to hear those kind of low numbers. It’s it’s a little bit depressing. And now it’s like, okay, what else can come out of these trade deals,” he says.

Will the October Lows Be Tested in Soybeans?
The March soybean contract is on its way to testing the October lows which for the March contract set at $10.28 but Varilek says that is possible. “We broke out of the bottom side of the charts and so now we have the October lows kind of in sight. You know they’re not too far away. We’re through all the retracement levels, so I could see a little bit of a magnet effect for for that.”

Corn Sideways Until the WASDE
Corn futures were lower in tandem with lower soybeans and wheat futures and ended 12 cents lower for the week. While the March contact took out $4.40 support the bigger support area is at $4.35 which coincides with the bottom end of the trading range corn has been chopping in. Varilek expects this area to hold through the January WASDE. “We just don’t have enough positive momentum to get through the top of the charts even with strong exports and the lower yields expected in the January report. That’s because we continue to linger around the 2.0 billion bu. mark on ending stocks,” he explains.

New Year Fund Reallocation?
Could corn or the rest of the grain complex see some new money at the beginning of a new year on portfolio reallocation by the funds? Could they move money out of over extended precious metals into low valued grain markets? Varilek says it is possible but the evidence of that won’t be seen until after the first full trading week of the new year which volume is re-established.

Cattle Futures Break Out to New Highs
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move on Friday and had higher weekly closes. Feb. live cattle were up $6.35 and March feeder cattle futures gained $12.53 for the week. This came on the heels of stronger fed cash trade with mostly $232 live sales, up $2 to $3 from last week, in both the North and South. Northern dressed deals were also at mostly $360 to $362, up $4 from last week’s weighted average.

However, he is looking to the cash market for feeders as the real leader. “This cash market is is the lead dog for me right now. I mean cash feeders first that’s what really led this market, to where we got to this last year and that’s where we’re going to be looking again as we get into next week and start to get some more numbers,” he adds.

NWS Case Sparks Rally
New World Screwworm cases in a newborn calf 197 miles from the Mexican border and a case detected in a goat also helped to spur some buying interest in the feeder cattle futures with ideas it will slow the reopening of trade. “Just the fact that there’s still some cases down there maybe this reopening of the border doesn’t happen right away, you know, we were kind of thinking we were probably pretty close. Maybe you just kind of kicked that can down the road. And it could tell some guys, let’s get back into the sale barn and,get some feeders bought,” he adds.

How High Can Futures Rally?
Feeder cattle futures filled the gap area already on Wednesday and closed above that area which attracted some technical buying on Friday. The rally in feeders also finally pulled live cattle above chart resistance areas, including the 100-day moving average, which had kept the market sideways the last couple of weeks. So can the market continue to rally and maybe even retest the record highs from October? Varilek says technically feeders may try to fill the last gap area on the charts and if that is accomplished the highs will be in sight.

“It has the setup for it but just some of the worries that come along with it. Are we going to see some negative packer margins that are really going to affect this? You know, we’ve got Lexington closing. We’ve got Amarillo’s already gotten rid of their B shift. There there is some of that that you have to worry about yet, but it’s going to have to be the cash feeders that are going to have to do it,” he explains.

If feeders make new highs the question is do live cattle follow? Varilek says the cattle market could be getting into it’s tightest numbers. However, he’s not sure how much higher live cattle can run especially as cattle weights are heavy and he is seeing some signs of mild heifer retention.

Will the Funds Push the Market?
So if the market is going to return to the record highs it will take some help from the funds. “So there’s some of your hedge money, some of your fund money that’s available to look at that chart and say, hey, this thing still, has some potential to get back to some of those highs. So, uh, I think that there is a good room.” But he says January is a tough month for cash cattle to trend higher and it’s too early to talk about a spring rally.

Lean Hogs Stay Sideways?
Lean hog futures were lower on Friday seeing some follow through technical selling but still in a sideways range. Varilek says he thinks the market could stay range bound as it tries to absorb the increase in supplies the next six weeks. However, after that there may be some buying with ideas that disease will curb production.

Is the Slide in Grains All About South America? What Rallied Livestock Tuesday

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:26:18 GMT

Grains ended slightly lower on Tuesday with cattle and hogs higher.

Grains Slide Further on Year End Positioning
Grain markets all closed lower for a second day this week on follow through technical selling. Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders. “So we’ve got two weeks of holidays here. We’re at end of the quarter end of the year. A lot of reasons to take off risk for these markets in general. Along with that we also have some light fundamental news changes.” he says.

South American Weather Favorable
As especially the case for corn and soybeans the markets are also drifting says Nelson due to the lack of weather concerns in South America. Brazil has seen favorable weather and even the dryness in Argentina is starting to ease. Nelson says, “One of the news stories which has been removed, which have been lightly supportive, was this Argentine dryness story. Three weeks in a row, Argentina has seen normal to slightly above normal rain.”

Brazil’s production estimates, at least on soybeans, continue to creep higher and are now are even above 180 MMT. “USDA is not that much lower than everybody else. They are a little bit on the corn side. But for the most part, this market is not finding a rally story from South America. And typically, January and February are the two big months for yield determination for corn and soybean yields down there for sure,” he adds.

Soybean Exports Lagging
Despite more flash exports sales on Tuesday soybeans continued fall. USDA reported daily flash sales of 5.0 million of soybeans to China and 8.5 million bu. to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 marketing year on Tuesday morning. However, soybean exports are still lagging compared to a year ago. “As we head toward this coming USDA report the agency could lower yields but will probably lower exports a little bit here for soybeans and raise domestic crush,” he says.
Currently, he says soybean exports are down 94 million bushels verses USDA’s current projection. Nelson says Allendale project exports down only 30 to 40 million bu. in the January WASDE. He says it’s not because of China but because of other buyers with Brazil soybeans priced below the U.S.

Still, Nelson doesn’t think U.S. soybean prices have to fall much further. “However, on the quite positive side, we feel that these prices have moved quite a bit lower than economic value. And even with our ninety four million bushel cut to exports lately offset by lower yields and also raised domestic crush, we actually would argue like the higher prices are still due in these months ahead for soybeans as well. “

Corn Falls After Testing Resistance
Corn futures were also lower on Tuesday with soybeans and wheat and a higher dollar. However, Nelson says the market went up atnd tested the top side of the trading range on the charts and failed and is now retracing. “We had that attempt here in recent days at trying to break out of of prior highs. We’re not able to do it. We came within just within a nickel of those prior highs.”

Argentina Corn Crop Risk Fading
Nelson says the market may have a difficult time retesting those highs in the short term with the removal of risk with the improved Argentine weather. “It’s actually more important for corn than soybeans, considering the fact that, Brazil’s first crop of corn is relatively small. So I think we can argue that corn probably took the Argentine weather change a little worse than soybeans.”

Corn Yield Lower in WASDE
Nelson says they do find some reasons for higher prices starting with the January WASDE mainly due to a yield cut. “Yes, we’re looking at a yield cut. Maybe exports unchanged or maybe slightly higher on this specific report. So we do look like we do look for this general discussion on ending stocks to drop from roughly2 billion bu. will be down into the high 1.8 billion bu. or low 1.9 billion mark in a month or two,” he explains. That should push prices back to the $4.60 level for March and May.

Wheat Follows Corn and Soybeans Lower
Wheat futures were lower again Tuesday following corn and soybeans and with a higher U.S. dollar index. Nelson says the bearish market mentality is also coming from Russia’s higher wheat export forecast in coming months. He says, “Keep in mind here they were relatively weak exporter in recent months. So we do have that looming bearish issue.”

Plus he says there is a lot of focus on the feed value of wheat in relationship to corn. “As it stands right now, it’s going to take probably higher corn prices to justify a higher wheat prices.”

The wheat market is also numb to the Black Sea tensions. “Whether we have a war the market is still getting Russia and Ukraine exports, and with no war. The market’s still getting, Russia, Ukraine exports,” he adds. This comes even as Russia stepped up attacks on the Odesa port complex.

Live Cattle Futures Stuck, Feeders Breaking Out?
Live and feeder cattle futures were both higher on Tuesday. Still, the live cattle have been unable to take out key resistance on the charts while Nelson says March feeder cattle futures filled the gap area. As a result he thinks the market will stay sideways.

His concern regarding live cattle futures is the drop in wholesale beef prices again last week against the back drop of slightly higher cash prices and negative packer margins. “So far,we do have adequate supplies. Keep in mind here right now, weights finishing weights are running about 3% over last year. This comes on top of the fact that slaughter levels are only down 2% to 4% versus last year, so actual beef production has really not been hit in recent weeks specifically.”

Cash Cattle Trend This Week?
Cash trade averaged $229.33 last week, up $1.36, but on very light volume. Will that trend continue as packers buy for a full kill week next week? Nelson says he’s expecting a mixed trade and packers aren’t likely to be too aggressive. “Maybe light support here for the South. Maybe, lightly negative for the North,” he says.

Lean Hogs Rally Despite Drop in Cash and Cutouts
Lean hog futures were higher Tuesday despite a sharp drop of $1.40 in the lean hog index and lower cutout values. Nelson says it was an impressive move considering the expansion indicated in the Hogs and Pigs Report. “Slaughter rates for the month of December overall, they are holding USDA’s view of a revision for higher supply. So the bear argument has some legs right now.” Yet, futures had the second best close of the uptrend, which Nelson says is positive.

Cattle Futures Pop Despite Weak Cash: Grains Slide

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 16:01:05 GMT

Cattle futures are higher early Friday, with hogs lower. Grains are quietly mixed.

Cattle Futures Higher Despite Lower Cash
Cattle futures are higher early Friday after seeing some profit taking the last couple of days unable to take out chart resistance, which in live cattle coincides with the 100-day moving average. As a result the market is trading more sideways says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. However, futures are higher despite lower Northern cash trade on Thursday.

Lower Cash Cattle
Fed cash trade developed at $228 live, which is down $2 from last week but on limited volume says Varilek. The dressed prices were mostly $358, which is up $4 but that is equivalent to $225.50 on a live sale basis. He says the drop in the cash market is not unexpected considering packers were buying for a short holiday week. And that may be the case again next week.

Boxed Beef Not Rallying
Boxed beef values are still subdued which is a disappointment since they normally see a seasonal rally around the holidays. The Choice values are still under $360 at $357.28. Varilek thinks the poor performance is somewhat politically motivated. “Packers have been unwilling to push the beef values higher because of the target on their back regarding their role in higher beef prices,” he explains. He doesn’t think it is tied to poor consumer demand.

Cattle on Feed Positioning
The market has also been positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report due out at 2 pm on Friday. Early estimates put the on feed totals at 98.4% of a year ago and placements at 92%, which if confirmed would be bullish. Varilek says it just backs up the tight herd numbers. However, he thinks there is some slight heifer retention that is starting to take place.

Lean Hogs See Profit Taking
Lean hog futures were lower early Friday on pre-weekend profit taking and some spread action with cattle. However, the market is still in a short term uptrend which has attracted fund buying and that should continue. Disease problems are also growing in major production areas which should be supportive as well as the seasonal bottoming of the cash market.

Are Soybeans Done Going Down?
Soybeans are narrowly mixed early Friday after another week where futures lost over 25 cents. Varilek says the market is now trading below the price levels it was at before the China trade truce and purchase framework was announced. “We filled the chart gap areas and then closed below those levels which is bearish,” he points out. China bought another 4. 9 million bu. of soybeans Friday morning, but he thinks the soybean market has failed to respond to these sales because it’s not enough to hit USDA’s export target. Plus, Brazil and Argentina have been receiving good rains this week and so there is no problem with the South American crop.

Corn Hits Resistance
Corn has been resilient with the selloff in soybeans and tried to rally this week after holding the 100-day moving average. However, it failed at resistance on the charts at the 200-day moving average. Varilek thinks that keeps corn range bound through the end of the year or until the January WASDE.

Cattle Futures Soar on Sharply Higher Cash but Can They Keep Rallying? Grains Drift

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 15:56:49 GMT

Cattle and hog futures are higher early Friday, with grains quietly mixed.

Cattle Futures Soar With Sharply Higher Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher Thursday and are seeing continued buying Friday morning pushed by sharply higher cash trade in the North. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa. Dressed deals had a range of $340 to $345, $11 to $16 higher than the prior week’s weighted averages, The South remained at a standstill.

“So that felt great. We’ve got guys cleaning up a lot of cattle at $220. And then after the close, we were yesterday, we were even able to get some $222 sales that happened. And it had a good feeling because you had some regionals. You had some majors out there. But when you have those certain two majors pushing up here in the North, you can get a lot of traction. So Cash news, lead story feels good. That’s what’s really pushing us higher here,” he says.

Cash Feeders Lead with Record Prices
Varilek says the cash feeder market helped lead the higher fed cash trade with some record prices paid at livestock auction barns including Bassett, Neb. “I mean, that was thefirst sign, okay, a lot of big corporates got out in the yards and you’re thinking, okay, we’re moving higher fast, starting to hear some prices that are dropping my jaw again. And that just continued through the week with cash feeders just going higher, moving higher. And, yeah, Bassett sets the record for the highest price, six weights ever sold going over the $5 mark.” He says its a testament to how tight supply is. And we have heard a lot about fear

He says breakevens are from $240 to $260 which makes him a bit nervous, especially with the heavy weights but he says producers are able to make some money and they are anxious to refill yards. “And feeders are the leaders. That’s the story that got us to these record highs in the first place. And that’s what’s leading us back again.”

The headline of another case of New World Screwworm 120 miles from the Mexican border also helped to support the rally although Varilek says its not producing the limit up moves like it was before. However, the ideas is that most of the bearish news has already been factored into the market.

How High Can Prices Go?
Live and feeder cattle futures have had a great week and have moved past the 38% retracement levels but are now eyeing 50% retracements and key moving averages as resistance areas that need to be taken out to keep the rally going. Plus, will the market go up and fill the chart gap areas that were left when the market tumbled? “Yeah, those gaps, that bloody trail that we left. I mean, those were feeling like they are a long ways away. And now suddenly we’re getting in range here. So we’re looking at a, you know, just over $230 for a Feb gap that one of the gaps that it has there. Is it guaranteed to go fill them? Yeah, absolutely not. You never know. But I think the more confidence we get and we keep grinding us higher, those are now possible to do just that,” Varilek adds.

Where Are Packer Margins?
Varilek says feeders have regained their leverage in the cash market which is the good news but with $220 cash trade what does that do to packer margins? Packers had been running back in the black with the correction in the cash market recently. Varilek says, “That’s good question. I think we’re going to have to kind of dial that in because we had retailers making money. We had packers making money. We had producers making money. It felt really good that all sectors were doing okay at this level. I mean, all we heard about in the last couple months was beef’s too high and need to get beef down. That’s frustrating for us beef producers, you know, look at the price of everything else,” he says.

Hogs Rally in Bottoming Action
Lean hog futures have been higher this week on short covering and with spillover from the rally in cattle. The lean hog index has also been moving back higher which is supportive and that may be providing proof of a seasonal low. Varilek says there are some other factors at work too. “I think actually hogs themselves have, you know, a decent story. I mean, we had its grinding downtrend. We finally were able to stop that train lower. and now in and when you start throwing the disease into the hog market, that that’s a friendly story. So I think that’s probably one of my major factors is,” he says. yep, we

Corn and Soybeans Sideways Even With China Business
Corn and soybeans are quietly mixed on Friday as both margins are range bound. Soybeans seem to be fading the 17 million bu. flash sale of soybeans to China but that is because its been talked about all week and the market is still disappointed with Secretary Bessent’s comments about the 12 MMT buys being done through the end of February, not December. “I feel like when I want to talk about the grains, I’m just kind of rehashing the same stories that we’ve talked about. So just trying to look past. What story is there that’s going to break it out of a top side or a bottom side? And I feel like we’ve got firm floors in for the year. We’ve kind of got through that. So the hopes is for upside. We’re getting some of this, you know, China business. We’re seeing it show up that the market had to do that. We know we’ve got a tight
Right now, rains maybe just a little bit disappointing down there. We know it’s always going to be too dry somewhere or too wet somewhere. There’s going to be a problem and it’s going to make the market news. So that’s what it’s going to take to try to break anything out of the top side.”

However, he admits the South American weather story won’t get real market attention until January. “Yeah, it’s too early but in a market that this boring, We’re looking for something.”

U.S. Drops 40% Tariff on Brazilian Beef in New White House Executive Order

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 01:31:41 GMT

A White House Executive Order issued Thursday modifies the scope of earlier tariffs placed on products from Brazil, effectively removing the additional 40% duty applied to Brazilian beef. The change reverses part of a July trade action that had imposed elevated import duties on multiple categories of Brazilian goods. It’s the latest effort by the Trump administration to bring food prices down for Americans.

Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter, and its product plays a key role in filling U.S. demand, especially in processing beef and manufacturing trim. The tariff increase earlier this year had raised costs for processors and food manufacturers, tightening supply availability and contributing to price pressure.

This latest move follows an Executive Order signed on Friday that modified the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2, 2025. The Friday EO exempted several agricultural products from tariffs , including fruit, coffee and fertilizer.

What Thursday’s Executive Order Does

According to the new order, certain agricultural imports from Brazil are now exempt from the extra ad valorem tariff that had been layered on top of existing duties. Beef is among the commodities specifically impacted — meaning importers will no longer pay the higher tariff rate that had been in effect since mid-summer.

A complete list of the products that will no longer face the 40% tariff was posted online. That list includes the following beef products:

Fresh or chilled beef
Frozen beef
Edible bovine offal, fresh or chilled
Edible bovine offal, frozen
Salted, dried, smoked or brined beef

Read More: What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?

Why the White House Lifted the Tariff

In the Executive Order, President Donald Trump specifically referenced the call he had with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Oct. 6, which he said addressed concerns in the previous Executive Order that added the additional tariffs.

“These negotiations are ongoing. I also have received additional information and recommendations from various officials who, pursuant to my direction, have been monitoring the circumstances involving the emergency declared in Executive Order 14323,” said Trump in the Executive Order. “For example, in their opinion, certain agricultural imports from Brazil should no longer be subject to the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed under Executive Order 14323 because, among other relevant considerations, there has been initial progress in negotiations with the Government of Brazil.”

The Executive Order went on to say: “after considering the information and recommendations these officials have provided to me and the status of negotiations with the Government of Brazil, among other things, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to modify the scope of products subject to the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed under Executive Order 14323. Specifically, I have determined that certain agricultural products shall not be subject to the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed under Executive Order 14323.”

Accordingly, an updated version of Annex I to Executive Order 14323 is attached to this order, which shall be effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on Nov. 13, 2025. In my judgment, these modifications are necessary and appropriate to deal with the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14323.

Background on Tariffs on Brazilian Beef

The Trump administration issued an executive order on July 30, 2025, instituting an additional ad valorem duty of 40 % on many products of Brazilian origin. That 40% duty was in addition to an existing 10% tariff under a separate “reciprocal tariff” measure —bringing the total effective tariff to about 50% on most affected Brazilian goods.

Fear of Trump Dumping Tariffs Caused Selloff in Cattle Earlier This Week

Even the fear of Trump removing the steep tariff on Brazilin beef caused cattle prices to tank earlier this week.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek told Michelle Rook on Monday that concerns of the tariff being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week and why the market started off lower Monday.

Kooima said futures stabilized after it was confirmed the 50% tariff on Brazil beef was only lowered 10%.

Looking ahead, Rook reports the other major issue hanging over the cattle market is when the Trump administration will reopen the Mexican border to live cattle import. Some reports say the Trump administration is pushing for that to happen in January.

Read More: Did the Administration’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?

Did the Administration's Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 20:02:31 GMT

2025 has been a historic year in the cattle market. The tightest cattle numbers in 70 years laid the ground work for cash and futures prices to push to record and all-time highs.

From All-Time High to Crash
The peak in the cattle futures market was hit on Oct. 16. However, by Nov. 6, live cattle saw a $30 correction from the highs and feeder cattle futures set back nearly $70. The cattle market chaos wasn’t tied to fundamentals but liquidation by speculative traders on fear of policy changes by the administration as President Donald Trump announced a plan to lower beef prices for consumers.

Fundamentals Have Not Changed
Don Close, senior animal protein analyst with Terrain, says the market fundamentals that started the bull run in the cattle market are still intact.

“Certainly with domestic supplies, they have not changed in any fashion when you’re looking at the tightest cattle numbers that we’ve had in 70 years,” he says.

With high retail beef prices, there is no evidence of consumer sticker shock or trading down to other lower-priced proteins. Close says the beef industry has not seen any erosion in demand.

So, what changed? Analysts say it was the shift in market psychology in reaction to President Trump’s announced plan to lower beef prices for consumers on Oct. 16.

While the President’s announcement lacked details, the goal seemed to be to mimic the success the administration had in bringing down egg prices. With the prospect of government intervention, the live and feeder cattle futures touched limit down the following day as speculative traders who had been long in the cattle futures market for many weeks took profits and liquidated.

Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says the managed money fund traders did not want to bet against the government.

“If you’re a hedge fund manager, you look at this cattle thing and say ‘Yeah it’s gone up an awful lot. We’ve made a lot of money,’” he says. “‘Now the administration’s going to be fighting against me. I think I’ll go find something else to do’, and you move your money elsewhere.”

Trump Administration Quadruples Argentina Beef Imports
Just days later, President Trump made an announcement to quadruple the Tariff Rate Quota for Argentina beef imports . That triggered additional selling in cattle futures despite the insignificant impact it has on U.S. beef supplies.

Patrick Linnell, director of market research with CattleFax, explains: “That change from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons would represent around 132 million lb. And really, that comes down to about three-tenths of a lb. per capita to net beef supplies.”

(Allendale )

The move drew immediate fire from the nation’s cattle groups, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

Colin Woodall, NCBA chief executive officer, explains that with the current trade imbalance with Argentina, the administration needed to push for more market access in Argentina instead of importing more of its beef.

“Over the past five years, Argentina has sent over $800 million worth of their beef into the U.S. market, and they’ve only accepted $7 million of our beef into their market,” Woodall explains.

Justin Tupper president of the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, adds that increasing beef imports was a slap in the face to U.S. cattle producers, and they opposed the move because countries like Brazil and Argentina have lower food safety standards and other practices that put the U.S. at a disadvantage.

“I think we want to be able to play on the same level playing field,” he says. “And I don’t think that happens with Argentina and Brazil. And again, I really don’t think it’s going to lower prices.”

Tupper adds neither producers or consumers stood to gain from increasing beef imports.

For more about Tupper’s thoughts:
South Dakota Producer Speaks Out About Beef Imports and “Product of USA” Push

Cattle Groups Tell Trump to Stay out of the Cattle Business
As a result, cattle groups and outraged producers warned the president to stay out of their business.

Woodall says: “We have worked really hard through the free market to be able to achieve the prices that we’re seeing. We don’t want government intervention coming in and messing with that and taking away these great opportunities we’re seeing.”

Tupper agrees: “It’s an industry that wants to work on competition and merit based, and we can do that if we make sure we don’t get to many outside interests — the government being one.”

Government Policy Pushes Prices Higher
However, two government policies pushed live cattle from $210 to $250 from July through September.

1. Increased Tariffs on Brazil. The U.S. increased tariffs on Brazil an additional 50% in mid-August, which nearly halted imports of beef trim coming into the U.S. Linnell explains, prior to that time, Brazil was a top importer of trim used to blend in ground beef.

“As of July on a 12-month basis, we’d imported just shy of 1.1 billion lb. from Brazil,” he says.

2. Closing the Mexican Border. The biggest policy change that tightened cattle numbers came from the U.S. closing the border to feeder cattle imports . Linnell says prior to closure, the U.S. imported more than 1.2 million feeder cattle annually. So, dropping the ban would have an immediate supply shock.

“We won’t see all 1.2 million head coming across at once but approaching that 25,000 head a week isn’t out of the question,” he adds.

(CattleFax )

While USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has confirmed there’s no date for resuming trade, speculative traders are headline driven. Every time USDA hosts a news conference on New World screwworm, it tanks the market — especially feeder cattle futures.

The market has also been sensitive to rumors of the border reopening, says Scott Varilek, of Kooima Kooima Varilek.

“There’s this large supply in Mexico. That would be the one thing that would probably affect this market the most,” Varilek says. “So, we’re penciling that in.”

Trump Calls for DOJ Investigation
The latest attempt to curb beef inflation came Nov. 7, as the president announced on his Truth Social site the Department of Justice was launching an investigation of the nation’s meat packers .

The president’s announcement says he vows to “ensure these corporations aren’t criminally profiting at the expense of the American people.”

Packer concentration has long been a hot button issue for cattle producers and is at the root of R-CALF’s six-year lawsuit, explains Bill Bullard, chief executive officer.

“We have alleged that the meat packers had unlawfully colluded in order to artificially depress cattle prices, while at the same time raising or inflating the price of beef to the consumers,” he says.

Currently 85% of the U.S. beef packing industry is owned by four entities, and Bullard says this monopoly violates antitrust law.

“Both the producers on the beginning of the supply chain and consumers at the end of the supply chain were exploited as a result of this monopolistic marketing structure,” he says.

Read more about Bullard’s thoughts regarding the DOJ investigation: Is the Beef Market Broken? One Cattleman Says Yes

But according to Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, past DOJ price fixing probes and research have disputed that.

“While there’s a very small level of negative price impact due to the concentration of market power, if you will, it’s far outweighed by the by the benefits in terms of cost efficiencies that the large firms bring to the industry,” he summarizes.

Read more about Peel’s comments regarding the industry chaos today: Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Cattle Producers Say Trump’s Beef Plan Topped the Market
Some of the other aspects of the President’s plan to rebuild the cattle herd were met with favor, such as opening more public land to grazing. However, in the end, the president’s beef plan has wreaked havoc in the cattle market and outraged producers, according to Varilek.

“They’re mad,” he summarizes. “That’s all it took was just kind of the government shoving in there and wrecking [the] market. I think the biggest thing was that there were some claims that the tariffs were the reason that we got this high, and that is not at all the case.”

Linnell agrees the negative headlines have hurt the market, adding: “There is no doubt that these policy decisions are making a big impact on the marketplace. They also just increase a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the industry.”

Cattle Market Chaos Further Slows Herd Rebuilding
The loss in value of females just over the last three weeks has also hurt producer confidence, and according to Close, that could further slow heifer retention and herd rebuilding efforts .

“We’re seeing one more round where we’re going to kick that can down the road instead of actually retaining the females needed,” he explains.

Market analysts, including Peel, say the reality is lowering beef prices is like turning the Titanic — and the president’s plan is unlikely to affect much change.

“It took several years of of drought and other impacts to get us here,” Peel explains. “It’s going to take several years for us to grow our way out of this situation.”

Close says once the market refocuses on fundamentals, cattle could retest the highs.

“As crazy as it sounds today, I’m not yet convinced we’ve seen the high of the cash market, and I would readily argue that we get into next spring, next summer to see a cash market back in that $240 to $245 plus level. I think is entirely possible,” he predicts.

Cattle Signal Bottom as DOJ Packer Probe Launched: Grains Eye Govt Reopening

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 16:10:12 GMT

Cattle futures are mostly higher early Monday morning as well as the grain complex, hogs are mostly lower.

Cattle Show Signs of Bottoming?
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets. The reason is the support areas that held on the charts last week. While the bears point to another week of lower closes, he says the breakout point in July when both markets took another leg higher is holding technically.

“If you look at February live cattle the low last week was $215.02 and the breakout point on the July 4th weekend was around $215 which is promising and for January feeder cattle the low was $311.40 last week which also coincides with the breakout point of $310.” he explains.

Cash Market Showing Bullish Signs
The fed cash market is also showing some bullish signs according to Kooima with cattle trading on Friday at $225 in the North and those cattle being shipped to other packing plants outside of the region. Dressed prices in the North were mostly $360, up $2 from the weighted average in Nebraska the previous week. Meanwhile, the South traded mostly $232, down $3 to $4.

DOJ Investigation Launched
The rally comes on the heels of and maybe even in reaction to President Trump and the Department of Justice announcing on Friday they were launching an investigation possible price fixing by the nation’s meat packers. This is part of the President’s plan to lower beef prices at the store for consumers.

However, Kooima says he’s skeptical of the investigation uncovering collusion because of the past history of those investigations. He points to the probe launched after the Holcomb fire in Kansas and the disconnect between record boxed beef prices and record low cattle prices during the height of COVID. “Those studies never uncovered anything abnormal to prosecute the packers on even though Three Blind Mice could have detected price fixing in those circumstances. I am all for the producers but I am not very hopeful this time around,” he says.

Kooima says if the big four packers that control 80% of the beef packing industry were broken up it could have positive long term implications for the market but short term the disruption could be a nightmare. Still he says if the investigation leads to improved price transparency he’s all for it.

Lean Hogs Struggle
Lean hog futures are mostly lower except for the December contract which has to align with the Lean Hog Index which is currently at $89.73. However, Kooima says the back months are making new lows for the move and technically the charts are beat up. Additionally, he says the slaughter numbers have rebounded with less disease problems. “You just don’t have good enough demand for the increase in supply we are currently seeing. When the only good thing you can say about the futures is they are oversold, you’re in trouble,” he points out.

Grains Mostly Higher on Hopes for Government Reopening
Grains are mostly higher Monday morning on hopes the government will soon be reopened after news reports Sunday night the Senate had enough votes to move the Continuing Resolution. The key will be if the House can do the same.

However, Kooima says that is holding up the grain markets with ideas we may soon get some bullish USDA data to help support the futures. That would include lower yields in the upcoming USDA crop production report and flash sales showing China purchases. Corn was trading two-sided as the December contract was running up into chart resistance he adds.

Cattle Recovering But Is a Bottom In? Soybeans Make Fresh Highs, Corn Fails

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 16:12:25 GMT

Live and feeder cattle futures are higher to start Monday with hogs lower. Soybeans are extending gains, but corn is lower.

Cattle Recovering But is the Low In?
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday still trying to recover after the recent $60 correction in feeder cattle futures and $25 correction in live cattle futures.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet.

The fear of the border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle imports is still in question and Kooima says USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is in Mexico today meeting with her counterparts to discuss the New World Screwworm eradication and prevention efforts.

He says the additional 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports look like they will be suspended as both countries leaders have indicated as much, but there is nothing official on it yet. Those news items continue to loom large in the market according to Kooima.

What Do the Charts Say?
Long term uptrend lines are still intact in the live and feeder cattle futures but both posted lower weekly and monthly closes. Plus, there is a bearish flag formation on the December live cattle and January feeder cattle charts.

So, Kooima says that is also a concern for the fund traders and could cause more liquidation with a technical breakout.

Cash Could be Higher This Week?
Very little negotiated fed cash trade took place in the North last week according to Kooima. There were some sales early in the week at lower money in what looked like panic selling at $228 to $230 live and mostly $360 dressed. However, in the South the market tarted at $235 later in the week and by Saturday Kooima says there was some $237 traded in Texas. So, the trend continued to improve as the week progressed. As a result, Kooima is calling the fed cash market steady to possibly higher this week.

Meanwhile, the cash feeder market has softened in the country and the cash index is expected to be $3.50 lower today a $343.70.

Hogs Fail Despite Lower China Tariffs
Lean hog futures continued to see pressure early Monday and were barely holding support in the December contract at $80.00 despite the futures discount to the cash index at $91.19. However, cash has continued to fall and weigh on the futures.

The White House released details of the China trade framework over the weekend which included China lowering retaliatory tariffs established on March 4 which would be positive for pork exports. However, even that failed to move the market higher and Kooima says it may be because China is unlikely to buy pork with the glut of supplies in their own country.

Soybeans Make Fresh Highs
Meanwhile, soybeans are making new highs for the move as the White House clarified the lower Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans and that the 12 MMT China has agreed to buy is for the last two months of 2025, which is bullish.

Corn Fails
Corn failed to follow the strength in the soybean market as the last of the U.S. harvest is coming to market and looking for storage so there is some hedge pressure. Plus, Kooima says the corn market is running into stiff chart resistance in the December contract.

Cattle Further Crash on Fear of Brazil Tariffs Easing: China Deal Hopes Rally Grains

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 15:06:21 GMT

Cattle futures are sharply lower with hogs mixed, grains all sharply higher.

Cattle Futures Crash, Feeders Limit Down on Fears of Brazil Tariffs Easing

Live cattle futures are sharply lower with feeder cattle hitting limit down the expanded limits of $13.75 in early trading.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says Friday many of the live and feeder cattle futures contracts ended limit down on fear of the southern border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle imports as Mexico’s Ag Minister has a meeting scheduled this week with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to try to resume trade.

However, Kooima says there was another reported case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Nuevo Leon over the weekend which is 70 miles from the U.S. border which failed to support the feeder cattle futures.

So, he says the market is now focused its attention on weekend comments from the Trump Administration that a meeting was schedule with Brazil’s president to talk about easing tariffs, which would include the 50% additional levies on beef imports.

“They seem to act like it’s all but a done deal that we’re going to see the president sign a rollback of the tariffs. I don’t know if it’s the 50 % or if it’s more than that, but the extra was, of course, the 50% that put them at 86%. And, you know, that seems to be part of the story,” Kooima explains.

Higher corn prices are also adding to the pressure in the feeder cattle futures.

Fear and Chart Damage Have Funds Liquidating

Kooima says funds are liquidating their long positions and as a result have taken out key long term support areas leaving technical damage on the charts.

December live cattle took out long term support at $229, near the 100 day moving average. “I think, you know, today’s low is very close to 38% retracement of the whole move up from the April low to the high we just made a couple weeks ago. To me, the next level then would be this basically $219 level, which is halfway back of the whole leg up.”

The next support area that needs to hold in November feeder cattle futures is $335 he warns. “Feeder cattle have changed what, nearly $40 a hundred. Yeah, we were at $380 a drop to $334, more than $40. And it didn’t take us long.” he adds.

Cash Cattle Trade Still Holding

The cash trade is still holding up on feeder cattle and the cash index is calculated at $367.45, up $.47, leaving the nearby futures at a nearly $19 discount.

Meanwhile, fed cash trade last week was only slightly lower in the North at $370 dressed, down $2 and $238 to $240 live. Southern business developed at mostly $238, down $2.

Hogs Fail to Rally on China News

The lean hog futures opened just slightly higher after news of a possible deal with China but quickly sold off with spillover from the lower cattle futures.

Kooima says, “There used to be a day when just the whisper of China business would send lean hog futures limit up, so clearly China is not a big factor anymore for the market,” he explains.

Grains Rally on Possible China Deal

Grains were higher early with a gap higher opening in soybeans on news of a positive meeting between the U.S. and China over the weekend.

Secretary Scott Bessent says the ground work has been laid to drop the 100% tariffs on China, a one-year plan on rare earths and importantly substantial agricultural purchases.

However, the amount of soybeans China will buy and when are the big questions says Kooima.

Plus, soybeans, corn and even wheat are into resistance areas on the charts at the summer highs and will need confirmation from Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi to take out those levels.

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:24 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Cattle Crash on Fear of MX Border Reopening: Grains See Profit Taking as CA Talks Off

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 14:52:05 GMT

Cattle are sharply lower Friday, with hogs trying to bounce. Grains are slightly lower.

Cattle Gap Lower on Fears of Mexican Border Reopening

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and deferred feeder contracts quickly pushed to limit down status.

The market has been on shaky ground all week with Trump’s plan to lower beef prices but the latest pressure is coming from news the Mexican Ag Minister is coming to the U.S. early next week to discuss the reopening of the U.S. border to feeder cattle imports.

Varilek says that overrides this week’s news on the Trump administration’s plan to lower beef prices.

He says buying 80,000 metric tons of Argentina beef is not a big deal because its only 176 million pounds total and Argentina only slaughters 5,500 head of cattle a day.

Lowering the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef would also be negative as they are the top exporter of beef in the world and accounted for 30,000 MT of trim per day before the tariffs were raised.

However, Varilek says the event that would have the biggest bearish impact on the cattle markets is opening the border to Mexican imports of feeder cattle and that is why the funds are taking profits and liquidating.

“There’s this large supply in Mexico. That would be the one thing that would probably affect this market the most. So we’re penciling that in. I mean, that’s part of this now. We’re going to meet with them next week. We see Trump is serious about bringing beef down. And that would be one surefire way to do so, you know, bringing in those cattle,” he adds.

Will the Funds Liquidate Cattle Positions?

With the chart damage that has been done on the daily charts funds could continue to exit their long position according to Varilek.

“All of these short -term trend lines are getting broke. We have not had to, you know, fight that along this long rally higher. There hasn’t been, you know, many times where we are saying trend lines were broke and we’re breaking some, you know, on all of the short -term charts, they’re looking rough. That would definitely be a signal that’s going to tell funds, hey, let’s start unwinding out of here,” he explains.

However, he’s hopeful the futures can find support at the longer term uptrend lines on the charts.

“The long -term trends, they’re still way down there. We had a pretty steep climb here towards the end of this rally. So you’ve got a long -term, you know, monthly chart trend lined on there around $2. We’re still up here at $2.36. That’s a long ways to go.”

Can Cash Trade Bring the Cattle Market Back to Reality?

In the past the cattle market has been able to fight back after corrections due to the strong cash prices for fed and especially feeder cattle and calves.

So far the cash news this week in the fed market has been light with some Northern trade at $240 and dressed prices at $368 to $370.

However, Varilek is not sure this week if higher money is in the cards as the futures melt down will hurt the resolve of the feed yards.

Hogs Try to Bounce

Nearby lean hog futures are trying to bounce despite the sell off in cattle supported by some short covering and spread unwinding.

The December contract hit two month lows again on Thursday and dipped below the $82.00 support area.

However, Varilek thinks that market has fallen far enough it doesn’t have much more downside, especially with its discount to the cash index.

Grains See Profit Taking as Canada Talks are Off

Grains futures are mostly lower early Friday seeing some profit taking after a strong week and with corn and soybean contracts hitting some technical resistance areas on the charts again.

There may be some light harvest pressure in corn heading into the weekend as well.

Varilek says the news that President Trump has called off talks with Canada due to an anti-tariff ad they sponsored are also weighing on futures.

Soybeans Lead Grains Higher Betting on China Deal: Cattle Digest Trump Beef Plan

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:24:09 GMT

Grains ended higher on Thursday with livestock mostly lower except nearby live cattle futures.

Soybeans Hit New Highs for the Move

Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.

President Trump sounds more confident of a deal at the APEC Summit next week and Treasury Secretary Bessent is meeting with Chinese officials in Malaysia on Friday as well.

How Much Could China Buy?

The export window for selling U.S. soybeans to China has been closing and trade sources indicate they need soybeans for the December -January period before Brazil’s next crop is available.

That leaves about six weeks for the U.S. to make those sales and get product shipped.

McBride says China bought over 800 million bushels of soybeans last year and with what they bought from Brazil and Argentina the U.S. may only be able to sell them 100 to 250 million bushels of soybeans.

Ballooning Soybean Ending Stocks

He doesn’t think other countries can back fill the 500 million bushel plus gap that will be left with a smaller China soybean program.

“So if we’re still deficient on that by 500 million bushels the USDA is going to have to recognize that and start to incorporate that into their export number on the on the balance sheets obviously we don’t have the government working uh at this time to put those numbers out but that is something that you would expect them to make an adjustment on when we do when they do get back to work,” he explains.

He says soybeans yields can offset some of that but he doesn’t think the yield loss is enough to be significant so that means ballooning ending stocks.

“I think if you’re talking about maybe lowering the yield and lowering your overall production, well, you’ve already seen acres come down a couple of times. We’re roughly around 80, 81 million acres, whatever it is, but the yield is probably still going to be stuck somewhere around 50 or 51 bushels to the acre, which is, yeah, it’s down a couple of bushels, but that’s not going to offset 500 million bushels that you might lose from China.”

Soybeans Hitting Next Resistance Areas

McBride says Thursday’s close in soybeans was strong but soybeans have had a 50-cent move and running up into chart resistance.

“If you’re using the November contract, it’s about $10.65, $10.70, go out to the January, put it up to about $10.75 to $10.85. That’s the upper end of the range,” he explains.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move But is a Follower

Corn also had gains on the day and made new highs for the move closing the December at $4.28 and above resistance but McBride says it was a reluctant follower of soybeans, wheat and even the rally in crude oil on Thursday.

He says the futures are running up into stiff chart resistance again and that is limiting upside.

“We keep hitting that $4.30 resistance. There’s a gap above us at $4.32 3/4. The resistance above that kind of comes in at some old lows right around $4.40.”

To get above those levels he thinks it will take proof of strong demand or lower yields, or both.

“We know the export demand is really good, but we have a huge crop out there. And you can tell me that the yields are coming down, I believe you. It’s probably closer to 182 or something like that. It’ll still be a record yield.”

Plus corn is still trying to digest the extra 200 million bushels in the quarterly stocks.

“So now all of a sudden, instead of talking about a 1.9 or a 2.0 billion carryout, we’re talking somewhere between 2.15 and maybe 2.35 billion on the carryout,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Short Covering a Second Day: Head Fake?

Wheat ended higher in all three classes for a second day but McBride attributes that mostly to short covering.

He says the bulls will want to make a case that a bottom is in and the market is going to run but he is concerned about the lack of follow through.

Cattle Struggle to Recover With the Headwind of Trump’s Beef Plan

Feeder cattle futures ended lower with live cattle seeing gains in at least the nearby contracts.

McBride says feeder cattle futures saw follow through selling after limit down closes on Wednesday.

Pressure this week has come from President Trump’s plan to lower beef prices and buy Argentina beef with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S. would be raising their annual beef quote.

McBride says increasing Argentina’s beef quota from 20,000 MT to 80,000 MT would have a very insignificant impact on beef supplies, accounting for less than 1% of consumptions.

“80 ,000 metric tons is 176 million pounds. So they bought from us last year 99 million pounds. We’re talking about an additional 77 million pounds.”

The bigger impact could come from lifting Brazil’s additional 50% tariffs on beef imports.

Cattle Top In?

So is the top in the cattle futures? McBride isn’t so sure because he says the fundamentals are still strong in the cattle market including cash.

He chalks this up to profit taking and says the feeder cattle have had a history of correcting and then making new highs as well.

“I certainly think that we’ve got some, maybe some bottom picking that’ll happen over the next few days or a couple of weeks, and then we’ll start to see this market come back. The thing that you have to remember in the supply side of things is the supply tightens in the fourth quarter for this cattle market. So we could be looking at a market that’s just kind of priming itself for the next run up,” he adds.

Cattle Recover as Trump Floats Argentina Beef Buys: Soybeans Rally on China Hopes

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 15:04:21 GMT

Cattle futures are mixed early, with hogs higher. Soybeans rally, while corn and wheat ease.

Cattle Futures Try to Recover

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts and resulted in expanded limits on Monday.

The selloff was triggered by President Trump’s comments at the White House that he had a plan to immediately lower beef prices, but gave no details.

U.S. to Buy Argentina Beef?

Sunday President Trump said the administration was looking at purchasing Argentina beef to help with beef inflation.

Kooima says buying Argentina beef would not be a huge game changer for the beef or cattle market.

“The imports of beef from Argentina are insignificant,” he says.

With some fear alleviated that at least the Southern border was not reopening to Mexican feeder cattle imports or the U.S. wasn’t dropping the additional 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef the market is trying to stabilize.

USDA over the weekend announced a detailed action plan of how they will be responding when New World Screwworm (NWS) gets into the U.S.

Kooima says there are plenty of protocols in place to allow Mexican feeder cattle to enter the U.S. and the cold weather season will also slow the possible spread.

Cattle Producers Balk at Government Plan

Meanwhile, Kooima says the cattle industry is opposed to any government intervention to try to fix the market.

Cattle Futures Ignore Higher Cash

The cattle futures totally ignored the higher fed cash trade development on Friday.

The North traded fed cash at $240, few at $241, up $5 and dressed at mostly $372, up $9 from last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals were at $240, $5 higher (basis Kansas) than the previous week.

“The fact that a major packer was willing to come out and pay $5 more for cattle on Friday as the futures board was melting down is bullish to me and indicates that cash is still king,” he says.

Lean Hogs Try to Recover

Lean hog futures were lower on Friday and December made a two month low, while also posting a lower weekly close for a second week.

The futures are trying to recover early Monday as Kooima says the market is oversold and due for a bounce and is likely finding some chart support.

Soybeans Rally on China Hopes

Soybeans are extending gains Monday after a higher weekly close last week and easing tensions between the U.S. and China.

President Trump said over the weekend he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi in two week and would be asking Beijing to buy the same amount of soybeans they did last year. He also reiterated that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and tariffs would be dropped if China shares rare earths.

Corn Trying to Follow Soybeans

Corn tried to follow soybeans early in the session but is struggling as it is running into chart resistance and with harvest pressure continuing.

Hopes For China Deal Fuel Grain Market Rally: Will Trump's Beef Plan Top Cattle?

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 12:28:39 GMT

Grains end higher on Friday and for the week, cattle and hogs were lower.

Grains See Technical Buying
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying on Friday and had higher weekly closes after bouncing off key support on the charts.

He says with the government shutdown the void of information is allowing the technicals to have a bigger influence on the markets.

“I think it was largely technical in nature that may have spurred a little bit of short covering with the government shut down. There’s not a whole lot of new weekly data for traders to digest. So you are getting just broad technical momentum here in these markets,” he says.

Corn Closes Strong
Corn futures closed higher for a 4th session which is impressive considering the headwind of a massive corn harvest.

“If you remember on Monday, we were skating on really thin ice in that December corn contract, $4.10. That was the low from October 1st. If we would have closed below there, I think you could make the case that could have snowballed additional technical pressure down near four bucks. But not only were we able to defend it, but we were able to close positive on that day. And that brought us towards the 50 -day moving average in the following session, which then propelled us to the 20 and 100 -day moving averages. So a lot of constructive price action cleared some big technical hurdles,” he says.

However, the next technical objectives for the market include the $4.32 1/4 gap area left on July 7 that served as overhead resistance on the last rally.

“So if we can hold this strength into next week, I think you could make the case that we could tack on another dime or so, getting out above there with some conviction, probably going to need a new fundamental catalyst to do so,” he adds.

What is the Catalyst That Helps Corn Break Above Resistance?
Sloup says corn needs soybeans to continue to rally to get above these chart levels but confirmation of stronger demand or lower yields will help.

Soybeans Trade China Hopes, Stronger Brazil Soybean Basis
Soybean futures got some help this week from easing tensions between the U.S. and China.

Support Friday came from trade optimism linked to President Trump’s comments that current tariffs on China aren’t sustainable and his statement that “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”

However, the market was also trading the rising basis levels for soybeans in Brazil which has made China halt their purchases.

U.S. soybeans are now cheaper than Brazil and while that may not attract China buying yet, Sloup says it will stimulate demand from other customers around the world.

“A lot of people, I think, are so focused on the debate between the two countries that they forget that this demand doesn’t just disappear, just gets displaced and moved around. So eventually, high prices, urge people to look for lower prices. And right now that seems to be in the United States,” he says.

That helped to firm up U.S. soybean basis this week and Sloup is hopeful this is what continues to keep soybeans above the $10 mark on the futures but for a sustained rally the U.S. will need China.

“To get this market to really run away back towards the upper end of the year’s range, which is closer to $10.75. You’d probably need to get some sort of deal done with China. And I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

Lack of Farmer Selling and Lower Yields Support Market
He says the lack of farmer selling in the soybean market now that harvest is wrapping up is also part of the strength.

Many producers are storing beans this year and waiting for better prices and processors and the like are having to increase their bids to procure inventory.

However, Sloup says the market is also digesting lower yields. “The fact that corn is trading 40 cents off its lows and soybeans have also seen similar action is proof that yields are not living up to early expectations.”

Wheat Signaling a Bottom Technically?
The two classes of winter wheat bounced off contract and five year lows this week to finally post a higher weekly close.

While some of that was tied to short covering, Sloup thinks the charts may be signaling some type of bottom.

Cattle Futures Melt Down on Trump Plan to Lower Beef Prices
Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open and several of the feeder cattle contracts were locked limit down most of the session and will see expanded limits on Monday.

Sloup says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines but he thinks the selling could continue on Monday.

While there have been several key reversals in the cattle futures that have been negated, Sloup thinks this time is different.

“The government is working against the market now in their fight against beef inflation and managed money traders will likely see that as a trigger to take profits and get out of their long positions because they don’t want to fight against the government,” he says.

Cattle Futures Ignore Higher Cash
Cattle futures totally ignored the higher fed cash trade on Friday.

In the North live sales developed at $240, up $5 and dressed mostly $372, up $9 from last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals were at $240, $5 higher (basis Kansas).

When Will Lean Hog Futures Quit Going Down?
Lean hog futures have had a wicked correction from the contract highs and hit new lows for the move again on Friday.

Funds have been liquidating a record long position and Sloup thinks the correction may continue with support on the charts $2 below the current market.

Will Gold Hit $5000?
The precious metal market has also been on fire recently with talk of gold hitting $5,000 yet in 2025 and Sloup says technically it looks like it is possible.

However, he says the global race to this safe haven commodity is also driving the buying interest and that will likely continue under the current geopolitical climate.

Cattle Crash on Trump's Plan to Lower Beef Prices: Row Crops Rally

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 15:13:47 GMT

Cattle are sharply lower, hogs mixed with corn and soybeans higher early Friday.

Cattle Crash on Trump’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday with some feeder cattle contracts touching limit down $9.25 as panic selling hit the complex.

Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices . Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.

“We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef,” Trump told reporters at the White House. The price of beef is “higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” Trump added, without elaborating.

What Could the Plan Entail?

Kooima says there is a great deal of speculation about what the plan could include.

One idea that is being floated is the possibility of the U.S. buying Argentina beef or at least lowering the quote and tariffs to allow more product to move into the U.S. This comes after a meeting between leaders of the two countries this week and Treasury Secretary Bessent remarking that the U.S. was considering another $20 billion bail out plan.

The trade has also been nervous about President Trump lifting the additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products including beef which is currently keeping their beef out of the U.S. or at least limited. They were a top beef importer prior to the tariffs.

While the border may stay closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports Kooima says increasing beef supplies in Mexico may also be another source of beef the U.S. could consider purchasing.

So far there has been nothing official except that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said they were not considering any cash payments for herd rebuilding.

Cash Cattle Higher in the North

Meanwhile the market is ignoring the news of higher fed cash trade in the North yesterday at $239 to mostly $240, up $5 from last week. Dressed prices at $372 to $373 were up $9 to $10.

Kooima says Southern bids had also been raised to $240 Friday morning.

Yearlings and calves at the sale barns were also continuing their trend of record prices on Thursday.

Are Hogs Close to Bottoming?

Lean hog futures were mixed early Friday with nearby contracts lower as fund liquidation has continued.

Kooima says he’s been watching the $85.00 level on February as an area of support but it was being flirted with on Friday morning.

Since the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report he says funds have been liquidating as the numbers were positive near term but bearish longer term and indicate increasing numbers.

Those are already being seen in daily slaughter totals and Kooima says that has been weighing on futures.

However, with the discount the futures are holding to the cash index he hopes the market will soon find some footing.

Corn, Soybeans Extend Gains

Corn and soybean futures were higher early Monday.

Corn was up for a fourth session and Koomia says it is seeing technical buying after December corn bounced off support earlier this week and then closed above key moving averages Thursday, including the 100 day.

However, he thinks lower than expected corn yield reports are also fueling some of the support.

Soybean futures were also higher as President Trump had more positive comments regarding China trade.

What Finally Stops the Cattle Rally? Grains Fall on China Trade Tensions

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 14:53:55 GMT

Cattle opened higher but turned lower with the rest of the livestock and grain complex early Friday morning.

Cattle Correct but Project to $388 on Feeders, $264 on Fats

Cattle futures opened higher Friday and feeders made all time highs once again before seeing some profit taking.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $25 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388 on the November contract, while live cattle could move to $264 on the December charts.

He says feeders have continued to be the leaders on the tight numbers and feedlots scrambling to buy inventory at any price.

The border being closed to Mexican feeder cattle has tightened supplies even further.

What Stops the Cattle Rally?

Varilek says the cattle market will continue to see this type of frothy action until the Mexican border is reopened and trade resumes, to which the timing is still unknown.

Brazilian beef imports have also seen an additional 50% tariff and that has also curtailed supply and so when that levy is lifted he says it could also have a chilling effect on the market.

Fed Cash Market Quiet

Meanwhile, the fed cash market has been very quiet as packers have been drawing inventory from cattle they had bought under delayed delivery arrangements a few weeks ago.

Varilek says there was some light business at $230 in the North early in the week and a few head were reported at $358 dressed on USDA’s mandatory report on Thursday, but otherwise it has been a thin market.

As a result, he says producers are holding cattle and feeding them to heavier weights.

Hogs See Further Fund Liquidation

Lean hog futures closed below major support on Thursday and are seeing some follow through selling on Friday.

Varilek says that market has seen a steep correction since the bullish news in the Hogs and Pigs Report and he predicts more downside pressure as fund continue to shed more of their record long position.

They are also hearing from customers that hog barns are full indicating disease problems have lessened and supplies are growing.

Grains Fall on Harvest Pressure, China Trade News

Grain futures are all lower on Friday as corn and soybeans see more harvest pressure ahead of a fairly open weekend for weather.

The other big news item is China overnight put levies on U.S. ships coming into their ports and has also reportedly purchased six cargoes of South American soybeans for Nov-Dec delivery. This follows China announcing they were putting additional restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and sanctions on a U.S. chip maker.

This is weighing on especially the soybean market, despite President Trump reiterating on Thursday that he was going to talk to President Xi about purchasing U.S. soybeans.

Varilek says the market is starting to want some proof of that business before moving higher.

Brazil Sets Monthly Records for Pork and Beef Exports in September

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 11:43:48 GMT

Brazil posted record monthly shipments of pork and beef in September, driven by strong global demand and market diversification, according to industry and government data released this week.

Brazil, the world’s top beef exporter and among the largest pork exporters, is increasing business with China and Mexico after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on shipments of several Brazilian goods, including beef, in August.

The U.S. used to be the second biggest market for Brazilian beef, but is not a significant destination for pork.

Pork exports totaled 151,600 tonnes, up 25.9% from a year earlier, with revenue reaching a record $368.4 million, a 29.9% increase, data from pork and chicken lobby ABPA showed.

ABPA expects the trend to continue, projecting pork exports will reach up to 1.45 million tonnes in 2025, up from 1.35 million tonnes in 2024.

Brazil also exported a record 314,700 tonnes of fresh beef in September, up 25.1% year-on-year, according to government trade data.

Exports surged despite steep tariffs imposed by the United States in August, as increased shipments to China, Brazil’s top beef importer, and to Mexico, helped offset lower U.S. demand, according to beef industry group Abiec.

Chicken exports showed signs of recovery after bird flu disruptions earlier this year, with September volumes reaching 482,300 tonnes, the highest monthly figure in 11 months, trade data showed.

Industry leaders expect continued momentum for Brazilian meat exports through year-end, supported by resilient demand and expanding access to strategic markets.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora and editing by Ana Mano; Writing by Isabel Teles; Editing by Richard Chang)

1,500-lb. Carcasses the New Normal, Not the Exception

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 17:01:26 GMT

Today the entire beef industry — from producers to processors — is economically incentivized to produce heavier animals. Ty Lawrence, West Texas A&M University animal science professor and director of the BCRC, predicts that carcass weights will continue to increase, potentially reaching 1,500 lb. in the near future.

Lawrence was a keynote speaker during the 2025 Beef Improvement Federation (BIF) Symposium in Amarillo last week. He says the industry has already seen harvests of cattle approaching that weight, with some producers currently feeding cattle up to 2,300 lb.

“We can feed cattle today to much bigger weights and be more profitable than you’ve ever considered,” Lawrence says.

BIF attendee and Kansas beef producer Joe Epperly from Wamego, Kan., summarizes, “The most hard-hitting comment at BIF was Lawrence’s 1,500-lb. carcass prediction by the end of his career. The implications of that to genetic selection, cost of production and cow size are far ranging. It will be a challenge for producers in every segment to meet.”

More than 400 beef producers, breed association leaders and industry professionals participated in two and a half days of educational programming focused on beef industry profitability and sustainability.

Tuesday, June 10, the event kicked off with the Young Producer Symposium. Wednesday’s general session focused on “Beef Industry Profitability: Conflicting market signals and profit drivers in the beef value chain.” Thursday’s general session theme was “Sustainability: Improving our product through selection, applications of technology and data integration.”

Wednesday and Thursday afternoon technical breakout sessions focused on a range of beef-production and genetic-improvement topics.

Bradley Wolter, a symposium attendee from Aviston, Ill., says, “Larger carcasses will be a critical part of bridging the supply gap in the near term. Identifying genetic association with late-term mortality and morbidity requires further research and coordination on the part of breeding entities.”

He says the chasm remains between exponentially larger finished carcasses that optimize fixed packer costs verses a target of smaller cows for biological optimum on the ranch.

“More collaborative, holistic data analysis with integrated research is needed to avoid industry sub-optimization and ensure competitiveness on the world stage,” Wolter summarizes.

Scott Greiner, Virginia Tech professor and Extension animal scientist, agrees with Epperly and Walter saying the message that resonated with many in attendance was the continued emphasis on increasing carcass weights by the feedlot and packing sectors, and the impact it will have at the cow-calf sector as it relates to cow size and production costs.

“This trend is not new, but I think the way things were conveyed by several speakers in terms of the economics and market signals, sure seems like bigger is what will continue to be a primary emphasis,” Greiner says.

Ken Odde, 2025/26 BIF vice president from South Dakota, says: “Two of the real questions about feeding cattle this long [to 1500-lb carcass weight] is what happens to the carcass traits as you do that? What happens to feed efficiency?”

One of the sessions that stood out to Odde during the symposium was a presentation on a project at South Dakota State University in the Advancements in End Product Improvement breakout session — “Extended days on feed: Influences on growth performance, efficiency and carcass characteristics of steers and heifers of different proportions of Angus and Limousin genetics.”

Is the U.S. Behind?

“From conversations in the hallway, I learned that the U.S. beef industry is behind on methane research, and if we are going to compete in the global marketplace, we need to get a move on,” Epperly says. “Australian Angus will release a methane research EPD in 2025, and we have barely enough data in the U.S. to see differences. That Australian data includes a lot of American bulls, so we will have data whether some American breeders like it or not. The optics for some are unfavorable, but whatever we can do to keep the doors open for our product the better off we will be.”

Likewise, symposium speakers referenced the Brazilian beef industry and how it is poised for continued success and rapid growth given its bountiful resources, not the least of which is its people.

“You see it not only in its scaled adoption of AI, but through the numerous young geneticists who make up the audience,” Walter says. “The U.S. industry needs to continue to invest in its genetic improvement through both public and private partnerships to maintain a position of world leadership.”

Young Producer Focus

“The Young Producer Symposium opened with a message about ‘Standing on the shoulders of giants,’” says Elizabeth Dressler, a graduate student who attended the symposium. “This resonated with me as I thought about all the research and progress the beef industry has made over the years. I thought it was a great way to open the conference by paying respect to the work that has been done in the past, as we look into the future the rest of the conference.”

Wolter adds there’s an excitement among young people in the beef industry.

“These young leaders are creatively engaged with our consumers unlike the previous generation,” he says. “I believe that will only create more demand and opportunities for an industry despite some questions and uncertainties with how cattle interact with their environment.”

Economists Fear Trade War Will Push Agriculture Deeper Into a Recession

Fri, 02 May 2025 17:19:12 GMT

Agricultural economists are growing even more pessimistic as the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the majority are concerned President Donald Trump’s tough stance on trade could push agriculture deeper into a recession while also giving Brazil more of a competitive edge. As one economist stated, the stakes are high, and the key is whether Trump’s policies push ag deeper into a recession, and if U.S. agriculture can survive without China.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a survey of nearly 70 agriculture economists nationwide. This month, 72% of those surveyed say the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession, up from 62% last month. Eighty-two percent of economists also think this could force more consolidation in agriculture.

Despite Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries except China, economists stress agriculture is in peak uncertainty.

Of the 72% who think agriculture is in a recession, their reasons are:

Compressed margins and concern about operating debt carried over from last year.
Prices for most crops have declined more than production expenses since 2022.
Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops.

Yet, the 28% who believe the crops side of agriculture isn’t in a recession say:

“Profit opportunities are there, but slim.”
“Economic performance and growth of U.S. ag is slowing and/or stable but not declining. It’s too early for the impacts of tariffs to change ag business decision-making.”
“Given the volatility in the crop session, a recession requires at least two bad return years, where returns include both private market and government payments. We do not know about 2025 yet, nor do we know the extent of government payments for 2024 crops yet and thus what will be the total return for 2024.”

Economic Drivers

In the survey, 42% of economists said the current state of the ag economy is “somewhat worse” than a month ago, while 26% said it’s unchanged. But when you compare outlooks to a year ago, 58% of economists responded the ag economy is somewhat worse.

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Economists were asked to list the two most important factors driving agriculture’s economic health today, as well as in 12 months. Tariffs and trade war topped the list.
“Weather will always be one of the primary factors, but we can add President Trump’s efforts to restructure global trade to that list this year. We’re in worse shape if he fails and better shape if he succeeds. Big stakes,” one economist said.

In addition to tariffs and the trade war, economists also said:

Inflation
Interest rates
Political uncertainty
Consumer demand
Status of trade issues and the supply-side (crop size) of the balance sheets.
The inability of farmers to manage price volatility due to uncertainty around trade

High Stakes with Trade

Agriculture is an export dependent business. According to the Trump administration, when it comes to tariffs and the impact on the overall economy, long-term gain will be worth the short-term pain. However, when it comes to agriculture, the economists surveyed don’t agree.

When ag economists were asked if they think Trump’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool will benefit U.S. agriculture in the long run:

76% responded no
24% responded yes

April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Since the last trade war, Brazil has gained ground and displaced the U.S. as the top corn exporter in 2023. Economists believe it won’t be the U.S. benefiting from this trade turbulence, but instead these competitors:

Brazil (76% of responses)
China (12% of responses)
India (6% of responses)
Ukraine (6% of responses)

Will Farmers Be Compensated for Short-Term Pain?

As Web reported, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has stated since winter that if farmers suffer financial pain from the trade war, the Trump administration will look at compensating farmers at some point.

April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Of the economists surveyed, 89% think USDA will compensate farmers with financial payments, similar to what the previous Trump administration did with the Market Facilitation Program Payments (MFP). However, 80% of economists say it’s too early for USDA to be considering compensating farmers for financial fallout.

Bottom line:

The risks are high. Unless the U.S. invests in domestic manufacturing over an extended period, the loss from exports could be a big hit to ag commodities. But if the Trump administration can gain more trade access to key countries, the rewards could be even bigger.

Your Next Read:

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Trump Administration Celebrates Earth Day by Spotlighting 'Unfair Trade Practices' That Harm Environment

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 15:32:20 GMT

The United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) Office took to social media to celebrate Earth Day, but with a twist. In honor of Earth Day, the Trump administration outlined a list of 10 “unfair trade practices that harm the environment and undercut U.S. producers and exporters.” Of the 10 items on the list, two directly mentioned agriculture.

The No. 1 issue, according to USTR, is deforestation in Brazil. The Trade Representative’s office says deforestation in Brazil reached a 15-year high in 2021, which was driven by “weak environmental regulations and lax law enforcement.” They went on to say that due to those issues, Brazilian ranchers were given an unfair advantage in agricultural production.

“In 2024, the U.S. had an agricultural trade deficit with Brazil of $7 billion. Brazil is a major competitor with the U.S. in soybeans, corn, meat, poultry and other agricultural products,” the official United States Trade Representative’s posted on X on Tuesday.

In honor of #EarthDay, USTR is spotlighting 10 unfair trade practices that harm the environment and undercut U.S. producers and exporters. pic.twitter.com/4xdJfVa1tN
— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) April 22, 2025

To fully understand the issue, you must first understand just how massive the forest area is in Brazil.

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world with a surface of 850 million hectares. That’s twice as big as the European Union. And nearly two-thirds of that is occupied by forest.

Deforestation has been a long-standing issue within Brazil. In fact, the Brazilian Amazon has the highest rate of deforestation of the planet. The ecosystem, which is known as one of the richest on Earth, is massive. A study based on satellite images by the National Institute for Space Research of Brazil (INPE) found a total loss of 72 million hectares since 1970, or 17% of its total area.

Deforestation Fuels Growth in Brazil’s Beef Production
Deforestation in Brazil is directly tied to agricultural production, really impacting commodities like beef and soybeans.

For beef production, ground zero for deforestation is in the Amazon and Cerrado regions. Cattle ranching is known as a major driver of deforestation, with ranchers often clearing new land for pasture as existing pastures become less productive, leading to a cycle of forest conversion.

The map shows the amount of forests around the world replaced by cattle, which paints the picture of just how severe the situation is in Brazil.

(World Resources Institute )

According to the World Resources Institute, cattle replaced nearly twice as much forest as all other commodities combined. The Institute analyzed seven commodities total, finding cattle pasture now occupies 45.1 million hectares (Mha) of land deforested between 2001 and 2015, accounting for 36% of all tree cover loss associated with agriculture during the time period.

Oil palm ranks second (10.5 Mha), followed by soy (8.2 Mha). The number has only grown since then.

The Role of Deforestation in Brazil’s Growing Soybean Production
When it comes to soy production, deforestation in regions like the Mato Grosso state are linked to deforestation as land is cleared for soy plantations, according to the World Resources Institute.

But it’s not just deforestation leading to the explosion in growth of soybean acres in Brazil. Based on geospatial databases, a recent study led by Embrapa found approximately 70 million acres of planted pastures in Brazil with intermediate and severe levels of degradation that have the potential for conversion into cropland. Pasture degradation is caused by overgrazing, insufficient weed and pest control, and lack of soil fertilization and occurs in practically all regions of Brazil.

The report by Embrapa also found a conversion of 70 million acres of degraded pasture to cropland would represent nearly a 35% increase in Brazil’s total planted area compared with the 2023/2024 crop season projection by the National Supply Company (Conab) – Brazil’s agency for food supply and statistics.

According to University of Illinois farmdoc daily , in Mato Grosso, which is Brazil’s largest agricultural state, the planted area could increase by 25% compared to the 2023/2024 season by converting degraded pastureland into cropland. Currently, soybeans and corn occupy more than 90% of the crop-planted area in Mato Grosso in the double-cropping system.

Additionally, in the Center-West states, the potential for agricultural expansion is notably higher in Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, reaching 69% and 67%, respectively, compared to the acreage in the current crop season.
·
#7 Environmental Issue on the List: Mexico’s Avacados
The U.S. is the top destination for Mexico’s avocado exports. USTR says in 2023, those exports were valued at $2.7 billion, and some of that production was harvested on illegally deforested lands.

“Some Mexican avocado producers have expanded avocado production to illegally deforested lands, threatening biodiversity and disrupting local ecosystems, including the forest habitat of monarch butterflies,” USTR said on “X.”

Fair Trade USA Serves Up Solutions
It’s a known issue within the produce industry. According to Farm Journal’s The Packer , Fair Trade USA is offering solutions to producers and retailers seeking ways to improve environmental and human rights conditions in the avocado sector.

The Packer reports an estimated one-third of all avocado farms in Mexico are reported to be illegal farms, and up to 70,000 acres in Michoacán and neighboring state of Jalisco have been deforested for avocado farming in the last decade, the release said. Fair Trade USA said water reservoirs are being illegally emptied to support farming, and farmers who speak out against deforestation and working conditions are often at risk.

The organization said western demand for avocados has grown exponentially over the last decade, and people and the planet are paying the price. Forced to keep pace with what farmers call the “avocado gold rush,” negative environmental impacts are rampant in many avocado farming regions — for communities as well as production.

“Fair Trade USA exists to partner with farms, workers, retailers and brands to create safe and fair working conditions and protect the environment,” said Felipe Arango, who was serving as interim CEO for Fair Trade USA. “Strong standards are needed to better the avocado industry, and we are excited to partner with producers to certify more farms and improve the lives of farmers.”

Avocado Institute of Mexico Rolls Out “Path to Sustainability” Plan
The Avocado Institute of Mexico announced their “Path to Sustainability” last week. The plan includes dealing with deforestation. The summary of the plan includes:

Collaboration with governmental authorities to achieve net-zero deforestation by 2035.
The Avocado Landscape Restoration and Reforestation Project, which has planted more than 3.6 million pine trees in the Avocado Landscape.

“We are dedicated to protecting, managing, conserving and restoring forests in the Avocado Landscape to achieve net-zero deforestation,” the Avocado Institute of Mexico said.

Pro-Forest Avocado Program
There’s also another program to help wean Mexican avocado growers off the need to produce avocados on illegally deforested land. According to Grist , there’s a Pro-Forest Avocado program, which is a Mexican initiative to certify sustainably grown avocados. An estimated 10% of avocado packing houses that send avocados to the United States have signed on to the Pro-Forest Avocado program. However, it has roadblocks to increasing participation.

According to Grist, the first is that growers must pay for the certification, while packagers get it for free. This has made many growers feel like they have to comply with standards and pay for them to offload produce at all. There’s a lot of distrust among producers of the government as well.

For this program, qualifying growers must have had no deforestation since 2018, no forest fires since 2012 and not operate on protected land.

Your Next Read:

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92% of Ag Economists Say the U.S. is Already in the Middle of Another Trade War

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 14:47:56 GMT

President Donald Trump hasn’t been shy about using tariffs as a negotiating tool. As he cracks down on fentanyl and illegal border crossings, he’s also pushing to restore what he calls fairness in U.S. trade relationships and countering non-reciprocal trading arrangements.

The reality for agriculture is the U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record in 2024 as imports soared, and Trump says he wants to reverse the trend.

According to the Trump administration, when it comes to tariffs and the impact on the overall economy, long-term gain will be worth the short-term pain. However, when it comes to agriculture, ag economists survyed in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor don’t agree.

Ninety-two percent of economists think Trump’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool won’t benefit U.S. agriculture in the long run.

Here are some of those economists’ comments from the most recent Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey.

“Food as a weapon doesn’t have a successful track record, see Jimmy Carter and the 1980s,” responded one economist in the anonymous survey. “It’s not a guarantee as it’s like playing Russian roulette; you might ‘win,’ but the risks are huge.”
“Farm Journal readers should learn about the long-term consequences of Smoot-Hawley. It wasn’t just about the economic costs — it was also about the relational damage between trading partners. I have a hard time believing we will rebuild these relationships any time in the foreseeable future,” another economist said.
“It depends on whether tariffs are used as a negotiating tool with the ultimate goal of reducing trade barriers, or whether they instead result in a world with higher barriers. The president’s emphasis on tariffs as a way to raise revenue suggests tariffs and their consequences may persist,” was another economist’s response in the Monthly Monitor.

However, one economist wasn’t as certain, saying, “For it to be beneficial depends on it being short lived and resulting in trade initiatives with market access or purchase commitments. And in the meantime, action is taken quickly related to Trump’s post to offset trade loss with increased domestic use such as removing dated rules that limit ethanol blends, renewing or creating biofuels production incentives, and adding SAF as a mandated fuel.”

Trade War or No Trade War?
What an overwhelming number of agricultural economists do agree on is that the U.S. is in the midst of another trade war. Ninety-two percent of economists say a trade war is already here, while only 8% responded no.

“I don’t think anyone is arguing with the notion that we are in another ‘trade war,’” one economist said. “This one is far bigger and far more consequential than the last one we were in.”

“It seems more like a trade cold war,” another economist responded. “The situation is ever-changing, and it is hard for buyers, markets and producers to anticipate reality and effect. The threat of tariffs is almost as effective as a tariff.”

As agriculture tries to navigate the turbulence and shocks of another trade war, the ultimate question is: Who wins in a trade war? According to Romel Mostafa, professor of business, economics and public policy for the Ivey Business School in London, Ontario, it’s neither the U.S. or Canada.

“If we think about U.S. and Canada, we both lose,” Mostafa says. “The way our markets are integrated, both from the input side as well as the product side, any tariff really increases cost of production for our farmers all the way to food on the table. What then happens, essentially, some of our products are going to be less competitive in major markets than where we compete. Who then benefits? Perhaps Brazil, Russia or other countries.”

Other agricultural economists agree: If you’re looking at the trade war between the U.S. and Canada or the U.S. and China, it’s not the U.S. who wins, it’s ultimately one of the United States’ biggest competitors: Brazil.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked, “In the next 10 years, which country ultimately benefits the most from the current trade turbulence?” Seventy-three percent of economists think it’s Brazil, and 18% said China.

This Trade War Could Be Worse Than the Last time
Of the agricultural economists surveyed, 69% say they don’t think a trade war today would have the same impact it did 2018 through 2020. Instead, most think it will be worse.

“The trade war in 2018/19 also had the African swine fever in China. Because of ASF, they did not need the soybeans anyway. It will be hard to figure out what impacted the U.S. markets/prices more, but the market reaction should not be as great this time,” said one economist in the monthly survey.

Ag Econoimsts’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

“It would be a bigger impact,” another economist said. “The first round of trade wars in agriculture were largely used as a wedge for negotiation or renegotiation of agreements that provided improved access and growth opportunities for ag trade. This round seems to be championed based on reshaping the entire trading system, a system that U.S. agriculture largely benefited from over time.”

“There appears to be less willingness by the U.S. taxpayer to provide financial assistance to agricultural producers. That is not to say that financial assistance is absent this go around, but I do believe it increases the uncomfortable situation for producers who largely support less government spending,” one of the respondents shared.

However, other economists think it could have a similar impact, saying the same commodities will be impacted.

Even talk of tariffs is enough to move the markets, as some analysts argue the commodity markets have been ignoring fundamentals, instead trading headlines recently.

The Potential Economic Hit to Ag
The American Farm Bureau (AFBF) economists recently took a deeper dive into the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs. AFBF economists say of the top 20 U.S. agricultural products currently being targeted by Canada, for a total of $5.8 billion, commodities such as juice, coffee and chocolate are hardest hit, along with wine, fresh fruit, dairy products, poultry and rice.

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs

(AFBF)

China’s retaliatory tariffs

(AFBF )

When it comes to China, Beijing has specifically targeted 15 products including beef, cotton, grain sorghum, pork, corn and dairy along with fresh fruit. Economists say while it’s too early to measure the full impact of the tariffs on U.S. agriculture, they believe it will certainly decrease demand for U.S. products in Canada and China.

Market Facilitation Program 2.0?
If agriculture is caught in the middle of another trade war, the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor wanted to know if economists think USDA will compensate farmers for their losses again, similar to what the previous Trump administration did with Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments.

March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Even though Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has promised to make farmers whole through another trade war, economists are concerned about available funding. Seventy-seven percent of economists think USDA will compensate farmers, but 23% don’t think so.

“Congress might be the limiting factor,” one economist said.

“They will want to do so, but their ability to do so may be limited. The failure to include replenishment of the Commodity Credit Corporation’s borrowing authority in the continuing resolution limits available CCC funds, and other options may also be limited in potential scope,” another respondent shared.

“The political dynamics appear to be similar,” said another economist. “Amounts are however likely to be less, maybe substantially less, due to the general policy initiative to reduce government spending.”

The Secretary of Agriculture has come out and said they will use these tools if it becomes necessary.

JBS to Build Cultivated Protein Research Facility in Brazil

Tue, 26 Sep 2023 14:56:56 GMT

JBS announced construction is underway in Brazil on a cultivated protein research and development center. The JBS Biotech Innovation Centre claims to be the “largest research facility focused on food biotechnology in Brazil.”

The center will include labs, a pilot plant and, eventually, a commercial-sized plant. JBS says it has invested $22 million in the project with plans to add another $40 million. Expected to open in late 2024, the facility will be staffed by a team of 25 post-doctoral researchers as well as support staff.

“The JBS Biotech Innovation Centre reinforces our commitment to the cultivated protein sector, consolidates our position as one of the main players in this very promising market, and reinforces our commitment to offering innovative, high-quality products to our consumers,” Jerson Nascimento Jr., JBS global supply and innovation director, said in a statement.

JBS also holds a 51% stake in Biotech Foods, a Spanish cultured meat production company, which currently operates a pilot plant in Brazil and is expected to open its JBS-funded commercial plant in mid-2024.

Timely BSE Report in Brazil? U.S. Beef Imports Left Unphased

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 19:02:12 GMT

A case of Atypical BSE, or mad cow disease, was confirmed in the northern state of Para, Brazil on Wednesday. However, the real question is—when did this case actually occur?

In a recent AgriTalk conversation, Ethan Lane, the National Cattleman’s Beef Association vice president of government affairs explains how Brazil has never been the timeliest country when it comes to reporting.

“We understand that this is an Atypical case. They’ve sent it to the World Organization for Animal Health for confirmation. What we don’t know yet is the timeline,” Lane says. “That has been the real problem with Brazil and these Atypical BSE cases. You know, the rest of the world reports these within 24 hours. Atypical cases are not the same as classical, they don’t present a threat to the herd and they’re spontaneously occurring, but reporting them in a timely way is how we make sure the system is working properly. For the last 10 years, Brazil has never reported one of these in a timely manner.”

Lane explains, Brazil’s reporting of these cases has been months or even years late.

Justin Tupper, president of United States Cattlemen’s Association, adds, “The atypical BSE case follows the finding of the disease in several animal remains in 2021, which the country had obviously failed to report in a timely manner.”

While China halted Brazilian beef exports starting on Thursday, as part of an animal health pact previously agreed between China and Brazil, the U.S. is still eligible to receive exports from the country.

Under the current trade structure, Brazil is part of an 18-country trade group, contributing to a 65,000 metric ton quota of beef to be imported to the U.S.

“Brazil has gotten really good in the last couple of years of maxing out that quota and basically taking market share away from others like the Japanese and the British. That’s a real source of contention amongst other trading partners,” Lane adds.

Additionally, Brazil’s beef exports to the U.S. must be shipped from Santa Catarina, a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free state. However, Lane explains there’s still a lot of risk.

“They stopped vaccinating for FMD. They’ve done it state by state. They’ve declared themselves FMD-free. However, that’s not how that process works. I mean, there are governing bodies that determine that internationally, so it’s a fairly concerning state of affairs when they self-declare and stop vaccinating,” Lane says.

Continuing to press the issue with Secretary Vilsack and USDA, Lane explains the uncertainty and concern over Brazil’s reporting ability continues to make us believe there needs to be a suspension of beef imports from Brazil into the U.S. until they can prove they have that central competent authority and ability to play by the same rules as the rest of world. “It’s something we can’t afford to let slip,” Lane says.

Tupper adds, “We acknowledge that Atypical BSE arises spontaneously in certain cattle, especially amongst individual animals that are 8 years of age or older. However, USCA supports the full and immediate suspension of Brazilian beef imports, not just because of this incident, but because there are enough other reasons to do so.”

Whether it’s BSE or FMD, Lane believes it’s important that trading countries play by the same stringent rules that we abide by here in the U.S.

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Other Key Topics

Economists Fear Trade War Will Push Agriculture Deeper Into a Recession

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92% of Ag Economists Say the U.S. is Already in the Middle of Another Trade War

JBS to Build Cultivated Protein Research Facility in Brazil

Timely BSE Report in Brazil? U.S. Beef Imports Left Unphased