Argentina

Trump Signs Executive Order Quadrupling Beef Imports from Argentina to Keep Ground Beef Affordable

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 22:39:04 GMT

In a move aimed at easing pressure on U.S. beef supplies and keeping prices in check for consumers, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Feb. 6, 2026, temporarily quadrupling imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina under the U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ).

The action comes as USDA confirmed just last week the U.S. cattle herd is now at a 75-year low . Not only are producers showing no signs of herd rebuilding, the White House says low cattle supplies can be attributed to droughts and wildfires in 2022 that impacted key U.S. cattle-producing states, including Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, which have constrained domestic beef production.

Compounding the supply challenges are restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico following detections of the New World screwworm have limited feedlot stocks, contributing to a record-low U.S. cattle herd.

“As President, I have a responsibility to ensure that hard-working Americans can afford to feed themselves and their families,” the proclamation states. “To increase the supply of ground beef for U.S. consumers, I am taking action to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. beef TRQ.”

The proclamation authorizes an 80,000 metric ton increase in in-quota lean beef trimmings imports for 2026, which will be allocated entirely to Argentina. The additional beef will be distributed in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons each, beginning Feb. 13, 2026, and continuing through the end of the year.

Record Beef Prices Drive Action

U.S. consumers have seen beef prices climb steadily in recent years, with ground beef reaching an average price of $6.69 per pound in December 2025, which was the highest level recorded since the 1980s. Despite higher prices and the availability of alternative proteins, demand for beef remains strong, prompting record beef imports of 4.64 billion pounds in 2024, a 24% increase over the previous year.

But this is not the first time President Trump has proposed measures to address rising beef costs. In October 2025, he told reporters at the White House, “We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef. The price of beef is higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” without elaborating.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) responded at the time with a strong warning, criticizing the President’s approach. NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says. the plan risked “damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

He emphasizes concerns about trade imbalances, the risk of introducing foreign animal diseases from Argentina, and the importance of focusing on domestic solutions such as New World screwworm facilities, regulatory reforms, and disease prevention programs.

The Trump administration, however, argues the current import expansion is a necessary response to natural disasters and market disruptions that have reduced domestic beef supply. The administration will continue monitoring supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures that may be necessary to ensure stable beef prices for American families.

This proclamation highlights ongoing challenges facing U.S. cattle producers, including climate-related disruptions, disease risks, and supply chain pressures, while signaling the administration’s willingness to leverage international trade to stabilize consumer costs.

Are Beef Prices Too High? Consumer Demand Signals No

Since the president’s initial comments in October, there’s been a debate about if beef prices are too high. Oklahoma State extension livestock specialist Derrell Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Terrain’s Don Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Economists Weigh In: Can Beef Prices Be Lowered Without Harming Producers?

In October, Trump’s initial comments tanked the cattle market. To better understand whether retail beef prices can be reduced without affecting cattle markets, Farm Journal spoke with two economists and livestock market experts. When asked if there’s a way to lower beef prices without impacting cattle futures, both economists say the short answer is, “no.”

“Simple answer is no,” says Close. “I would add to that that when we look at beef prices in relationship to the other proteins, I would absolutely say that pork and broilers have been a beneficiary of the record high beef prices. No doubt. But they are not yet to a point that they are a detriment to beef prices; beef is still gaining market share relative to other proteins.”

David Anderson, extension livestock economist at Texas A&M, echoed that perspective. “I think it’s a great, interesting question, but from the ranch to wholesale beef to retail beef, these prices are all related,” Anderson says. “If it was possible to do something that actually brought down retail prices to consumers, it’s going to have an effect upstream, downstream, however you want to call that. But even then, I’m not sure there’s much you can do to bring down retail prices. We’ve got a product that’s in demand. Even though we look at our nominal retail beef prices that are record high, I think that for consumers, beef delivers value for the money and they’re going to keep buying. That and tighter supplies is a recipe for higher prices. People continue to buy. There’s a bunch of big trends there, heck, let’s eat more protein, you know, and that helps the whole meat complex: beef, dairy, eggs, beans, you name it. So while this supports cattle prices, it also means there’s not a whole lot you can do to bring down beef prices significantly.”

New U.S.-Argentina Trade Deal Sets Stage For President Trump’s Latest Proclamation

The move this week follows a new trade and investment agreement between the United States and Argentina, signed earlier this week by USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentina’s Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno. The agreement provides preferential market access for U.S. goods, eliminates or reduces tariffs on a wide range of products, and enhances cooperation on economic and national security issues.

On agriculture, Argentina has agreed to open its market to U.S. poultry and poultry products within a year and simplify export regulations for U.S. beef and pork. The agreement also requires Argentina to accept U.S. food safety and regulatory standards for meat and poultry, while prohibiting restrictions on U.S. use of certain cheese names, such as asiago, feta, or camembert.

USTR officials said the deal will also enhance cooperation on export controls for sensitive items, protect telecommunications infrastructure, and prevent digital trade barriers that could affect U.S. tech companies. Although China is not mentioned in the text, the agreement is designed to strengthen U.S.-Argentina coordination in addressing unfair trade practices from third countries.

What’s Ahead?

The Trump administration will continue monitoring domestic beef supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures necessary to maintain affordable prices for American consumers. While some in the cattle industry remain cautious about importing Argentinian beef, the administration frames the decision as a short-term solution to natural disasters and market disruptions that have tightened domestic beef availability.

Cattle Chop Anticipating Higher Cash, Report: Grains Fall With Outside Markets

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 16:32:18 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains were mostly lower early Friday.

Risk Off Outside Markets Spillover
The ag markets were mostly lower early Friday on spillover from the risk off selling in the outside markets as the money flow continued to spillover. Today the outside markets are reacting to President Trump’s nominee for FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh, with the ideas he is more hawkish and less likely to lower interest rates.

Cattle Markets Await Report
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle markets have gotten caught up in that money flow but are also seeing some caution ahead of the USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report to be released this afternoon. He says the market will be closely watching the beef replacement and all heifers categories for any signs of herd rebuilding. Early trade estimates have total beef cows at 100%, beef replacements at 102% and all heifers at 99%.

Cattle Markets Await Cash
The cattle markets are also awaiting cash trade development. Kooima says there was some light trade at $238 live in Eastern Iowa sold to a regional. Bids have also been passed at $237 so he is anticipating higher cash trade this week. He thinks producers will hold out for higher money after cash trade was surprisingly $2 to $3 higher last week.

NWS Headlines
Feeders may have also reacted negatively to yesterday’s state of emergency declaration by Texas Governor Rick Greg Abbott due to New World Screwworm (NWS). Kooima says the market continues to trade headlines or at least the algorythim traders are.

Lean Hogs Just Off Contract Highs
Lean hog futures were slightly lower in the front month on Friday but the summer futures were once again resuming their uptrend. Kooima says the market hit contract highs earlier this week and then saw some profit taking. With the disease pressure and strong consumer demand he thinks the futures will retest those highs. He says cutouts have been staying about 90 cents which is seasonally very strong and an indication that consumers are trading down proteins and picking pork. Exports this week were also huge at 56,000 MT.

Grains See Risk Off Selling, After Hitting Resistance
Grains futures are mostly lower seeing some profit taking as it is end of the month, plus the corn and soybean futures both hit chart resistance on Thursday at the upper end of their trading ranges and failed. Selling pressure is also tied to the outside market money flow and risk off selling in markets like the metals and the rebound in the dollar.

'The System Is Failing Us:' Why Real Change is Needed in U.S. Agriculture

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 13:57:30 GMT

Joe Maxwell doesn’t pull punches — especially on the topic of the future of American agriculture.

“The system is failing us,” says Maxwell, co-founder of Farm Action , during a recent episode of “Unscripted.” “It’s failing the people. It’s failing family farmers and ranchers. And it’s failing consumers. We can’t keep pretending everything’s fine.”

The Missouri farmer and former lieutenant governor shares an uncomfortable truth: The economic model that has shaped U.S. agriculture no longer works for those producing America’s food.

Commodity prices remain under pressure, input costs stay stubbornly high and government payments — while keeping some farms afloat — often mask deeper structural problems.

“We’re on this hamster wheel,” Maxwell says. “Government sends out a bailout, input companies raise prices and the money flows right back up to them. We think we’re being helped, but really, we’re just passing the money through.”

From Missouri Roots to National Reform

Maxwell grew up on a family farm in Missouri and lived through the 1980s farm crisis. That experience shapes his conviction that policy, not luck, determines who survives in agriculture.

That belief lead him and Ohio farmer Angela Huffman to co-found Farm Action, a nonprofit working to “connect the dots” between policy decisions, corporate consolidation and on-farm economics.

“We see a need for a farm organization that looks up and down the entire food chain,” Maxwell explains. “Everyone’s focused on one part of the system — fertilizer here, seed prices there, meatpacking somewhere else — but no one connects them. Farm Action connects those dots and pushes for policy that works for independent producers again.”

“We Don’t Feed the World Anymore”

Maxwell challenges one of agriculture’s most familiar slogans.

“Let’s be honest — we don’t feed the world anymore,” he says. “We import 60% of our fruit, over a third of our vegetables and record amounts of beef. We have a $47 billion agricultural trade deficit. The world is starting to feed us.”

He argues that U.S. farm policy has become overly dependent on exports of feed and fuel crops, while overlooking food crops and livestock production that directly feed Americans. Maxwell calls for farm programs that reward food production rather than commodity production.

“Every year we lose up to 1.8 million acres of pasture to row crops,” he notes. “That’s a failure of policy. We make it easier and more profitable to grow corn for fuel than to raise beef or vegetables for food. That’s not national security — that’s national vulnerability.”

“Let’s quit lying to ourselves. We don’t feed the world anymore — the world is beginning to feed us.”— Joe Maxwell, Farm Action

The Growing Grip of Consolidation

Maxwell points to consolidation as the most dangerous — and least understood — threat facing independent producers. From fertilizer and seed to meatpacking and grocery shelves, he says control has concentrated into the hands of just a few corporations.

“The power dynamic in agriculture has flipped,” Maxwell explains. “Farmers used to have leverage. Now, a handful of companies control nearly every input we need to farm — and they set the prices we pay. Then they control the markets we sell into, and they set those prices, too. That’s not a free market — that’s corporate feudalism.”

He points to Farm Action’s Concentration Tracker, a public data hub that compiles market share information across the food system. It shows that:

Four companies control over 80% of beef processing.
Two companies dominate more than 75% of corn seed genetics.
Three firms hold the majority of fertilizer production capacity.
The top five grocery chains now capture nearly 65% of all food retail sales.

“When just a few players hold that kind of power, they don’t compete — they coordinate,” Maxwell says. “They can raise input costs and suppress farmgate prices, and farmers have no real alternative. That’s why our concentration tracker matters — it exposes what’s really happening behind the curtain.”

The problem, he says, isn’t just economic — it’s political.

“These corporations have so much money and influence they shape farm policy to fit their own balance sheets,” Maxwell adds. “When we go to Washington asking for help, they’re already there, writing the rules. Until we restore fair competition and transparency, every bailout, every policy tweak is just feeding the beast.”

Farm Action’s data shows concentration doesn’t just hurt farmers — it hurts consumers, too. From fertilizer to feed to food, fewer companies mean higher costs for everyone.

“You see it every time you go to the grocery store,” Maxwell says. “Beef prices are high, but cattlemen aren’t seeing that profit. Fertilizer prices spike, but farmers don’t control the market. Consumers pay more, farmers earn less, and the middle consolidates the wealth. That’s not sustainable for anybody.”

It’s a concept gaining national traction. Just this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on the soaring costs of inputs.

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) also introduced legislation to address the rising costs of inputs, called the Fertilizer Research Act . But the hearing brought together the larger issue of rising costs across the board for farmers.

“This hearing is focused on competition issues. However, there is something that the Trump administration can do right now to help ease the burden for farmers: lowering the countervailing duties on phosphate from Morocco. In 2024, the Biden administration increased duties on Moroccan phosphate to 18%,” said Grassley in his opening statement. “The Biden phosphate duties have only hurt farmers by boxing out access to this important market on an essential input with no substitute. I’m calling on the Trump administration to help American farmers and get rid of the Biden phosphate duties.”

The Beef Debate: “We’re Blindsided”

For ranchers, the issue of consolidation has long been a point of contention. But recent comments by President Trump sparked a renewed push for change and a probe into who and what really controls the prices consumers are paying.

When the White House signaled it will allow more beef imports from Argentina , Maxwell says many ranchers feel blindsided.

“Our cattle herd is at a 70-year low,” he says. “Ranchers finally see light at the end of the tunnel — and then Washington steps in to import more beef. That’s not just a policy mistake, it’s a psychological one.”

He argues that the frustration isn’t only about imports; it’s about the perception that the administration doesn’t understand the complexity of the cattle market.

“Cattle producers don’t set the price they’re paid — packers do,” Maxwell explains. “So when the president talks about lowering prices for consumers without addressing packer control, he’s aiming at the wrong target.”

“We’re finally seeing the light of day. Then government puts its hand back on our backs.”— Joe Maxwell on the U.S. cattle market

“It’s Time for DOJ to Step In”: Why the Beef Industry Needs an Investigation

He says instead of the Trump administration focusing on cattle prices, Farm Action thinks what happened in the egg industry during past price spikes is exactly what needs to happen now in beef: a full federal investigation.

“Two companies control 90% of hatcheries in the U.S. egg industry,” Maxwell explains. “When egg prices exploded, Farm Action presented evidence to the Department of Justice showing that those companies were profiting at historic levels while blaming avian flu. And you know what happened? DOJ opened an investigation. That’s what accountability looks like.”

Now, he says, the same pattern is playing out in beef.

“We’ve already seen price-fixing cases in the cattle sector,” he says. “Two of the major packers admitted it back in 2019. We shouldn’t have to spend years in court to prove what every rancher already knows — that a handful of companies are manipulating the market.”

The so-called “Big Four” — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef (controlled by Brazil-based Marfrig) — control roughly 85% of U.S. beef processing capacity. That concentration, Maxwell argues, allows them to influence both the price paid to producers and the price charged to consumers.

“It’s an abusive system,” Maxwell says. “They squeeze ranchers on one end and shoppers on the other, and everyone in between gets caught in the middle. The packers are the only ones guaranteed to make money, no matter what happens to the market.”

He calls for the Department of Justice to launch a new, comprehensive investigation into price manipulation and anti-competitive behavior within the beef industry — similar to what Farm Action pushed for with eggs.

“We need DOJ to do in beef what it finally did in eggs,” he says. “Follow the money, follow the profits, and hold these corporations accountable. Because right now, the people who produce our beef — the ranchers who’ve weathered drought, inflation, and decades of consolidation — are getting crushed while multinational packers report record margins.”

Maxwell says the Biden administration has taken small steps, but much more needs to be done.

“It’s not enough to tinker at the edges,” he warns. “We need enforcement — real enforcement — of the Packers and Stockyards Act, the Sherman Act, the Clayton Act. The laws are already on the books. What’s missing is the will to use them.”

Country-of-Origin Labeling: A “No-Brainer”

Maxwell says Farm Action is pushing hard for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (M-COOL) as part of the upcoming USMCA review in 2026.

“Consumers deserve to know where their beef comes from,” he insists. “The president could fix this tomorrow by negotiating M-COOL into the trade deal. That one move would give American ranchers a fair shot.”

He dismisses claims that M-COOL violates WTO rules.

“WTO is dead in the water,” Maxwell argues. “There’s no functioning tribunal to even hear a case. The only people fighting this are the packers — JBS, Tyson, Cargill, Marfrig — because they profit when foreign beef gets a U.S. label.”

Structural Change, Not Another Bailout
When asked whether Farm Action supports another round of USDA bailouts for struggling producers, Maxwell doesn’t hesitate.

“We recognize farmers are in crisis,” he says. “We don’t want to see our neighbors driven off the farm. But we can’t just keep sending out checks without fixing the system. One day those bailouts won’t come, and then it’ll look just like the 1980s. We have to demand structural change.”

Those changes, he says, should include:

Capping farm subsidies to slow consolidation.
Rebalancing insurance and incentive programs toward food production.
Rebuilding local and regional processing capacity to compete with the “Big Four” packers who control 80–85% of the cattle market.
Stronger enforcement of antitrust laws like the Packers and Stockyards Act and the Sherman Act.

Rebuilding from the Ground Up

Despite his criticism, Maxwell frames his message as one of hope — if farmers and ranchers take the lead.

“We can’t sit back and wait for Washington to fix this,” he says. “We have to step up, be part of the conversation, and demand policies that keep family farms in business.”

He supports Rep. Thomas Massie’s Prime Act, which would expand small-scale meat processing and let states regulate local slaughterhouses directly.

“We’ve got the infrastructure,” Maxwell adds. “We just need to give it life again. Let’s rebuild local processing so farmers can sell directly to consumers and keep value in their communities.”

Why It Matters Now

Fresh data from the Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows that 76% of agricultural economists expect conditions to persist or worsen over the next year. Many see echoes of the 1980s — though they warn today’s crisis is more complex.

“It’s not the 1980s all over again,” says Unscripted host Tyne Morgan. “But the pain is real. Economists say the situation could worsen in 2026 if structural issues aren’t addressed. That’s what makes conversations like this so important.”

A Call to Action

As the conversation wraps up, Maxwell’s tone shifts from urgency to determination. His message to rural America is both a warning and an invitation.

“We have to lead,” he says, pausing before adding, “because no one else is going to do it for us.”

He says the future of U.S. agriculture depends on whether farmers choose to engage in these hard conversations — the ones about fairness, policy, and the future of independent family farms.

“Look, we can’t afford to sit on the sidelines and hope someone in Washington suddenly understands our way of life,” Maxwell says. “Every farmer, every rancher, every person who believes in feeding people instead of feeding systems has a role to play. It starts at the local level — showing up, speaking up, refusing to accept that the current model is the only way forward.”He continues:

“This isn’t about right or left, or about politics at all. It’s about survival — for the people who feed this country. We can’t keep patching the same broken system and expecting it to serve us. If we want a food system that’s fair, resilient, and rooted in our rural communities, we’ve got to build it ourselves, together. That’s the hard truth — and the hopeful one.”

Maxwell’s words linger long after the conversation ends — a challenge, but also a call for courage. Change, he insists, isn’t something that happens to farmers. It’s something that must happen through them.

Listen to the Full Conversation

Listen to the full interview: “Unscripted” with Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths featuring Joe Maxwell, a vailable on Farm Journal’s YouTube channel and anywhere you stream podcasts.

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:24 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Cattle Crash on Fear of MX Border Reopening: Grains See Profit Taking as CA Talks Off

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 14:52:05 GMT

Cattle are sharply lower Friday, with hogs trying to bounce. Grains are slightly lower.

Cattle Gap Lower on Fears of Mexican Border Reopening

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and deferred feeder contracts quickly pushed to limit down status.

The market has been on shaky ground all week with Trump’s plan to lower beef prices but the latest pressure is coming from news the Mexican Ag Minister is coming to the U.S. early next week to discuss the reopening of the U.S. border to feeder cattle imports.

Varilek says that overrides this week’s news on the Trump administration’s plan to lower beef prices.

He says buying 80,000 metric tons of Argentina beef is not a big deal because its only 176 million pounds total and Argentina only slaughters 5,500 head of cattle a day.

Lowering the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef would also be negative as they are the top exporter of beef in the world and accounted for 30,000 MT of trim per day before the tariffs were raised.

However, Varilek says the event that would have the biggest bearish impact on the cattle markets is opening the border to Mexican imports of feeder cattle and that is why the funds are taking profits and liquidating.

“There’s this large supply in Mexico. That would be the one thing that would probably affect this market the most. So we’re penciling that in. I mean, that’s part of this now. We’re going to meet with them next week. We see Trump is serious about bringing beef down. And that would be one surefire way to do so, you know, bringing in those cattle,” he adds.

Will the Funds Liquidate Cattle Positions?

With the chart damage that has been done on the daily charts funds could continue to exit their long position according to Varilek.

“All of these short -term trend lines are getting broke. We have not had to, you know, fight that along this long rally higher. There hasn’t been, you know, many times where we are saying trend lines were broke and we’re breaking some, you know, on all of the short -term charts, they’re looking rough. That would definitely be a signal that’s going to tell funds, hey, let’s start unwinding out of here,” he explains.

However, he’s hopeful the futures can find support at the longer term uptrend lines on the charts.

“The long -term trends, they’re still way down there. We had a pretty steep climb here towards the end of this rally. So you’ve got a long -term, you know, monthly chart trend lined on there around $2. We’re still up here at $2.36. That’s a long ways to go.”

Can Cash Trade Bring the Cattle Market Back to Reality?

In the past the cattle market has been able to fight back after corrections due to the strong cash prices for fed and especially feeder cattle and calves.

So far the cash news this week in the fed market has been light with some Northern trade at $240 and dressed prices at $368 to $370.

However, Varilek is not sure this week if higher money is in the cards as the futures melt down will hurt the resolve of the feed yards.

Hogs Try to Bounce

Nearby lean hog futures are trying to bounce despite the sell off in cattle supported by some short covering and spread unwinding.

The December contract hit two month lows again on Thursday and dipped below the $82.00 support area.

However, Varilek thinks that market has fallen far enough it doesn’t have much more downside, especially with its discount to the cash index.

Grains See Profit Taking as Canada Talks are Off

Grains futures are mostly lower early Friday seeing some profit taking after a strong week and with corn and soybean contracts hitting some technical resistance areas on the charts again.

There may be some light harvest pressure in corn heading into the weekend as well.

Varilek says the news that President Trump has called off talks with Canada due to an anti-tariff ad they sponsored are also weighing on futures.

Soybeans Lead Grains Higher Betting on China Deal: Cattle Digest Trump Beef Plan

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:24:09 GMT

Grains ended higher on Thursday with livestock mostly lower except nearby live cattle futures.

Soybeans Hit New Highs for the Move

Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.

President Trump sounds more confident of a deal at the APEC Summit next week and Treasury Secretary Bessent is meeting with Chinese officials in Malaysia on Friday as well.

How Much Could China Buy?

The export window for selling U.S. soybeans to China has been closing and trade sources indicate they need soybeans for the December -January period before Brazil’s next crop is available.

That leaves about six weeks for the U.S. to make those sales and get product shipped.

McBride says China bought over 800 million bushels of soybeans last year and with what they bought from Brazil and Argentina the U.S. may only be able to sell them 100 to 250 million bushels of soybeans.

Ballooning Soybean Ending Stocks

He doesn’t think other countries can back fill the 500 million bushel plus gap that will be left with a smaller China soybean program.

“So if we’re still deficient on that by 500 million bushels the USDA is going to have to recognize that and start to incorporate that into their export number on the on the balance sheets obviously we don’t have the government working uh at this time to put those numbers out but that is something that you would expect them to make an adjustment on when we do when they do get back to work,” he explains.

He says soybeans yields can offset some of that but he doesn’t think the yield loss is enough to be significant so that means ballooning ending stocks.

“I think if you’re talking about maybe lowering the yield and lowering your overall production, well, you’ve already seen acres come down a couple of times. We’re roughly around 80, 81 million acres, whatever it is, but the yield is probably still going to be stuck somewhere around 50 or 51 bushels to the acre, which is, yeah, it’s down a couple of bushels, but that’s not going to offset 500 million bushels that you might lose from China.”

Soybeans Hitting Next Resistance Areas

McBride says Thursday’s close in soybeans was strong but soybeans have had a 50-cent move and running up into chart resistance.

“If you’re using the November contract, it’s about $10.65, $10.70, go out to the January, put it up to about $10.75 to $10.85. That’s the upper end of the range,” he explains.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move But is a Follower

Corn also had gains on the day and made new highs for the move closing the December at $4.28 and above resistance but McBride says it was a reluctant follower of soybeans, wheat and even the rally in crude oil on Thursday.

He says the futures are running up into stiff chart resistance again and that is limiting upside.

“We keep hitting that $4.30 resistance. There’s a gap above us at $4.32 3/4. The resistance above that kind of comes in at some old lows right around $4.40.”

To get above those levels he thinks it will take proof of strong demand or lower yields, or both.

“We know the export demand is really good, but we have a huge crop out there. And you can tell me that the yields are coming down, I believe you. It’s probably closer to 182 or something like that. It’ll still be a record yield.”

Plus corn is still trying to digest the extra 200 million bushels in the quarterly stocks.

“So now all of a sudden, instead of talking about a 1.9 or a 2.0 billion carryout, we’re talking somewhere between 2.15 and maybe 2.35 billion on the carryout,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Short Covering a Second Day: Head Fake?

Wheat ended higher in all three classes for a second day but McBride attributes that mostly to short covering.

He says the bulls will want to make a case that a bottom is in and the market is going to run but he is concerned about the lack of follow through.

Cattle Struggle to Recover With the Headwind of Trump’s Beef Plan

Feeder cattle futures ended lower with live cattle seeing gains in at least the nearby contracts.

McBride says feeder cattle futures saw follow through selling after limit down closes on Wednesday.

Pressure this week has come from President Trump’s plan to lower beef prices and buy Argentina beef with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S. would be raising their annual beef quote.

McBride says increasing Argentina’s beef quota from 20,000 MT to 80,000 MT would have a very insignificant impact on beef supplies, accounting for less than 1% of consumptions.

“80 ,000 metric tons is 176 million pounds. So they bought from us last year 99 million pounds. We’re talking about an additional 77 million pounds.”

The bigger impact could come from lifting Brazil’s additional 50% tariffs on beef imports.

Cattle Top In?

So is the top in the cattle futures? McBride isn’t so sure because he says the fundamentals are still strong in the cattle market including cash.

He chalks this up to profit taking and says the feeder cattle have had a history of correcting and then making new highs as well.

“I certainly think that we’ve got some, maybe some bottom picking that’ll happen over the next few days or a couple of weeks, and then we’ll start to see this market come back. The thing that you have to remember in the supply side of things is the supply tightens in the fourth quarter for this cattle market. So we could be looking at a market that’s just kind of priming itself for the next run up,” he adds.

Row Crops Rally as China Tensions Ease: Cattle Bounce as U.S. Touts Argentina Beef Buys

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 22:03:47 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended higher Monday. Live cattle were higher with feeder cattle and lean hogs mixed.

Soybeans Extend Rally on Easing China Tensions

Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says soybeans ended higher on Monday and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week.

The market got a boost from easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China and President Trump’s comments Sunday that he’s going to meet with Chinese President Xi in two weeks and hopes to push for Beijing to purchase the same amount of soybeans they did last year.

Argentina Soybean Purchases?

However, Hoogendoorn says there is talk in the market that Argentina may buy some soybeans from the U.S. in exchange for the U.S. buying their beef and in light of the $20 billion bailout the U.S. already provided.

He says after selling soybeans to Argentina the country may need to buy some soybeans for its processing sector which is the top producer of soybean meal in the world.

Higher Soy Processor Bids

The soybean market has also got a boost from improved basis levels and soybean bids around processing plants.

In Illinois, farmers have report that ADM is offering free DP for soybeans delivered through the end of the month.

Meanwhile, other processors may have been caught short of inventory as farmers put soybeans into storage this fall verses selling off the combine as basis was horrible in at least the Northwest Corn Belt states due to the lack of export sales to China.

Soybeans Close Above Resistance

Soybeans also got a push from strong weekly export inspections at 54.2 milion bu. and all combined the market got above various moving averages on the November contract with a close above $10.30.

Corn Up a Fifth Day

Corn futures were higher for a fifth day with Hoogendoorn says is impressive in the middle of harvest.

He chalks it up to the rally in soybeans spilling over to support corn but additionally the continued lower than expected yield results out of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Demand has been strong for corn as well with export inspections at 51.9 million bu. on Monday, bringing the total to 368 million bu., up 61% from last year.

“With no soybeans going to China there are increased loadings and movement of corn through especially the Pacific Northwest,” he adds.

Live Cattle Recover with Higher Cash

Live cattle futures recovered after the melt down on Friday as higher cash trade lifted the market.

Hoogendoorn says the market was digesting the news of higher cash that was lost in the emotional trading session on Friday.

Cash developed at mostly $240 live in both the North and South on Friday which was up $5 from the previous week. Dressed prices at $372 in the North were up $9.

Trump Touts Argentina Beef Purchases in Plan to Lower Prices

President Trump’s comments about the administration offering a plan to lower beef prices for consumers melted down the futures on Friday and the market did try to recover on Monday.

Trump says they are considering buying Argentina beef to curb beef inflation in the U.S. but it would not be a game changer.

Data from last year and the first part of this year indicated they account for about 2 .1 % of U.S. imports.

Cattle Market Fears Other Options to Lower Beef Prices

The cattle market is more fearful of the U.S. reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports or lowering the 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef imports according to Hoogendoorn.

So the fact Trump did not announce either of those two interventions as part of his plan was a relief to the markets.

However, Hoogendoorn thinks the government intervention may be the tipping point for the cattle market.

“I think there are fund traders with millions of dollar of long cattle positions that are likely to bank their profits and find another market to trade as they don’t want to fight against the U.S. government,” he adds.

Lean Hogs End Mixed Looking for a Bottom

Lean hog futures ended mostly higher Monday with the nearby contracts seeing pressure and spot month December touching two month lows early in the session but holding $82.00 support.

The funds have continued to liquidate long positions under the pressure of lower cash.

Hoogendoorn thinks the market is trying to carve out a bottom in part due to the discount the futures are holding to the cash index.

Is Argentina Beef the Answer to Lowering Beef Prices?

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 19:06:36 GMT

President Donald Trump said Sunday that the U.S. could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers.

“We would buy some beef from Argentina,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.”

He emphasized its potential impact on reducing domestic beef prices while supporting Argentina’s struggling economy

President Trump, speaking onboard Air Force One, defended a proposed beef import deal with Argentina, emphasizing its potential impact on reducing domestic beef prices while supporting Argentina's struggling economy pic.twitter.com/iz0mnYcGG4
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 20, 2025

Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory on AgriTalk Monday, “The president ought to keep his mouth shut about beef prices. Because it has a negative consequence for the cattle market.”

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) responded to Trump’s comments with concern that rewarding Argentina with this expanded access to the U.S. market harms American cattle producers while also interfering with the free market.

“NCBA’s family farmers and ranchers have numerous concerns with importing more Argentinian beef to lower prices for consumers. This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” says Colin Woodall, NCBA CEO. “Additionally, Argentina has a deeply unbalanced trade relationship with the U.S. In the past five years Argentina has sold more than $801 million of beef into the U.S. market. By comparison, the U.S. has sold just over $7 million worth of American beef to Argentina. Argentina also has a history of foot-and-mouth disease, which if brought to the United States, could decimate our domestic livestock production.”

“Although beef prices have increased, consumer demand for beef remains strong because of the work American cattle producers have done to improve the quality and safety of U.S. beef,” says a press release from NCBA. “We call on President Trump and members of Congress to let the market work, rather than intervening in ways that do nothing but harm rural America.”

Peel’s Perspective

Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, shares his perspective on importing Argentina beef.

“Argentina is the sixth largest beef producing country and the fifth largest beef exporting country, accounting for roughly 6% of global beef exports,” Peel explains. “Argentine beef production is about 27% of total U.S. production. In recent years, Argentine beef exports have been growing with the majority of beef exports going to China along with Israel, the E.U. and the U.S.”

Argentina is the ninth largest source of beef imports in the U.S., accounting for about 2.1% of total U.S. beef imports thus far in 2025. U.S. imports of Argentine beef have been growing in recent years (recovery in Argentina) and were up 41.7% year over year through July (the latest data available since the shutdown).

Peel says it’s not clear how much capacity to increase beef exports exists currently in Argentina. Domestic beef consumption in Argentina uses 70% to 75% of total beef production in the country.

“If, for example, the U.S. doubled imports over 2024 levels, it would likely mostly be at the expense of domestic consumption in Argentina or other export markets for Argentine beef,” Peel explains. “Such an increase in imports from Argentina would have a negligible impact on the total supply of beef in the U.S. market. In fact, if the U.S. took all of the projected 2025 Argentine beef exports (not likely), it would represent less than 2.5% of the total U.S. beef supply.”

The majority of Argentine beef imports are lean processing beef used for ground beef production. This beef is quite similar to beef imported from Brazil. Imports from Argentina are less than 10% of the imports from Brazil.

“Increasing imports from Argentina would have a very slight impact in offsetting the reduction in imports from Brazil expected because of the sharp increase in tariffs on Brazil,” Peel says.

The impacts on beef imports from Brazil are not evident in the import data for January through July.

“Record high cattle and beef prices are occurring despite record beef imports,” Peel summarizes.

Increased beef imports (mostly lean processing beef) partially offsets decreased nonfed beef production in the U.S., helping to moderate sharply higher ground beef prices and increasing use of fatty trimmings from U.S. fed cattle.

“Argentina is a relatively minor source of beef imports and potential increases would not significantly change the overall supply of beef in the U.S.,” Peel says. “In short, it does not appear that increasing beef imports from Argentina would have any significant impacts on U.S. beef prices. At most, it might have a very slight (and probably undetectable) impact of moderating expected future increases in U.S. ground beef prices.”

NFU Responds to Trump’s Comments

Following President Trump’s comments National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew reaffirmed the need to strengthen fairness and competition within the U.S. beef industry rather than rely on imported products in a press release .

“Lowering beef prices for consumers starts with restoring fairness in the marketplace, not by importing beef from Argentina and undercutting American ranchers,” Larew says. “Years of drought, depressed cattle prices and unchecked corporate consolidation have already pushed many family farmers and ranchers to the brink, all while consumers pay more at the grocery store.

“The White House recently bailed out Argentina with $40 billion in U.S. taxpayer-backed aid, and Argentina’s response was to strike new deals selling soybeans to China — deals that hurt American crop farmers. The last thing we need is to reward them by importing more of their beef.”

USCA Comments on Remarks

U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) President Justin Tupper also issued a statement .

“USCA commented on Friday regarding potential steps by the Administration to address beef prices, and we will reiterate our position today: government intervention is not needed in an industry that is already correcting in response to years of market pressure.

“Today’s comments alone triggered an immediate reaction in the markets — cattle futures dropped significantly. It’s important to underscore: the current price of beef on grocery store shelves reflects the true, inflation-adjusted cost of raising cattle in America today.

“USCA supports affordable food prices for American families. But we do oppose policies or loopholes that manipulate the market to address a solution that will be solved through natural market behavior. This approach weakens our industry’s foundation and undermines rural America.

“We have appreciated President Trump’s ‘America First’ priorities, which have consistently highlighted the importance of supporting U.S. producers and reinforcing national food security. This moment presents an excellent opportunity to show genuine American-first leadership by prioritizing strong domestic production, and fair, transparent markets for both ranchers and consumers.”

Thoughts from Texas

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller also responded to the possibility of importing beef from Argentina. “Instead of offshoring our beef production by buying Argentinian beef, which would increase our already substantial $50 billion agricultural trade deficit, we should consider importing breeding stock to increase our own U.S. beef production capacity. Other opportunities to consider include opening federal lands to grazing and offering tax incentives to increase U.S. beef production. That would encourage more breeding stock and increased herds,” he says. “All of these options would benefit both U.S. families and the American rancher, and I hope the White House will carefully consider them.”

Your Next Read: How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

Cattle Recover as Trump Floats Argentina Beef Buys: Soybeans Rally on China Hopes

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 15:04:21 GMT

Cattle futures are mixed early, with hogs higher. Soybeans rally, while corn and wheat ease.

Cattle Futures Try to Recover

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts and resulted in expanded limits on Monday.

The selloff was triggered by President Trump’s comments at the White House that he had a plan to immediately lower beef prices, but gave no details.

U.S. to Buy Argentina Beef?

Sunday President Trump said the administration was looking at purchasing Argentina beef to help with beef inflation.

Kooima says buying Argentina beef would not be a huge game changer for the beef or cattle market.

“The imports of beef from Argentina are insignificant,” he says.

With some fear alleviated that at least the Southern border was not reopening to Mexican feeder cattle imports or the U.S. wasn’t dropping the additional 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef the market is trying to stabilize.

USDA over the weekend announced a detailed action plan of how they will be responding when New World Screwworm (NWS) gets into the U.S.

Kooima says there are plenty of protocols in place to allow Mexican feeder cattle to enter the U.S. and the cold weather season will also slow the possible spread.

Cattle Producers Balk at Government Plan

Meanwhile, Kooima says the cattle industry is opposed to any government intervention to try to fix the market.

Cattle Futures Ignore Higher Cash

The cattle futures totally ignored the higher fed cash trade development on Friday.

The North traded fed cash at $240, few at $241, up $5 and dressed at mostly $372, up $9 from last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals were at $240, $5 higher (basis Kansas) than the previous week.

“The fact that a major packer was willing to come out and pay $5 more for cattle on Friday as the futures board was melting down is bullish to me and indicates that cash is still king,” he says.

Lean Hogs Try to Recover

Lean hog futures were lower on Friday and December made a two month low, while also posting a lower weekly close for a second week.

The futures are trying to recover early Monday as Kooima says the market is oversold and due for a bounce and is likely finding some chart support.

Soybeans Rally on China Hopes

Soybeans are extending gains Monday after a higher weekly close last week and easing tensions between the U.S. and China.

President Trump said over the weekend he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi in two week and would be asking Beijing to buy the same amount of soybeans they did last year. He also reiterated that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and tariffs would be dropped if China shares rare earths.

Corn Trying to Follow Soybeans

Corn tried to follow soybeans early in the session but is struggling as it is running into chart resistance and with harvest pressure continuing.

Hopes For China Deal Fuel Grain Market Rally: Will Trump's Beef Plan Top Cattle?

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 12:28:39 GMT

Grains end higher on Friday and for the week, cattle and hogs were lower.

Grains See Technical Buying
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying on Friday and had higher weekly closes after bouncing off key support on the charts.

He says with the government shutdown the void of information is allowing the technicals to have a bigger influence on the markets.

“I think it was largely technical in nature that may have spurred a little bit of short covering with the government shut down. There’s not a whole lot of new weekly data for traders to digest. So you are getting just broad technical momentum here in these markets,” he says.

Corn Closes Strong
Corn futures closed higher for a 4th session which is impressive considering the headwind of a massive corn harvest.

“If you remember on Monday, we were skating on really thin ice in that December corn contract, $4.10. That was the low from October 1st. If we would have closed below there, I think you could make the case that could have snowballed additional technical pressure down near four bucks. But not only were we able to defend it, but we were able to close positive on that day. And that brought us towards the 50 -day moving average in the following session, which then propelled us to the 20 and 100 -day moving averages. So a lot of constructive price action cleared some big technical hurdles,” he says.

However, the next technical objectives for the market include the $4.32 1/4 gap area left on July 7 that served as overhead resistance on the last rally.

“So if we can hold this strength into next week, I think you could make the case that we could tack on another dime or so, getting out above there with some conviction, probably going to need a new fundamental catalyst to do so,” he adds.

What is the Catalyst That Helps Corn Break Above Resistance?
Sloup says corn needs soybeans to continue to rally to get above these chart levels but confirmation of stronger demand or lower yields will help.

Soybeans Trade China Hopes, Stronger Brazil Soybean Basis
Soybean futures got some help this week from easing tensions between the U.S. and China.

Support Friday came from trade optimism linked to President Trump’s comments that current tariffs on China aren’t sustainable and his statement that “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”

However, the market was also trading the rising basis levels for soybeans in Brazil which has made China halt their purchases.

U.S. soybeans are now cheaper than Brazil and while that may not attract China buying yet, Sloup says it will stimulate demand from other customers around the world.

“A lot of people, I think, are so focused on the debate between the two countries that they forget that this demand doesn’t just disappear, just gets displaced and moved around. So eventually, high prices, urge people to look for lower prices. And right now that seems to be in the United States,” he says.

That helped to firm up U.S. soybean basis this week and Sloup is hopeful this is what continues to keep soybeans above the $10 mark on the futures but for a sustained rally the U.S. will need China.

“To get this market to really run away back towards the upper end of the year’s range, which is closer to $10.75. You’d probably need to get some sort of deal done with China. And I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

Lack of Farmer Selling and Lower Yields Support Market
He says the lack of farmer selling in the soybean market now that harvest is wrapping up is also part of the strength.

Many producers are storing beans this year and waiting for better prices and processors and the like are having to increase their bids to procure inventory.

However, Sloup says the market is also digesting lower yields. “The fact that corn is trading 40 cents off its lows and soybeans have also seen similar action is proof that yields are not living up to early expectations.”

Wheat Signaling a Bottom Technically?
The two classes of winter wheat bounced off contract and five year lows this week to finally post a higher weekly close.

While some of that was tied to short covering, Sloup thinks the charts may be signaling some type of bottom.

Cattle Futures Melt Down on Trump Plan to Lower Beef Prices
Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open and several of the feeder cattle contracts were locked limit down most of the session and will see expanded limits on Monday.

Sloup says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines but he thinks the selling could continue on Monday.

While there have been several key reversals in the cattle futures that have been negated, Sloup thinks this time is different.

“The government is working against the market now in their fight against beef inflation and managed money traders will likely see that as a trigger to take profits and get out of their long positions because they don’t want to fight against the government,” he says.

Cattle Futures Ignore Higher Cash
Cattle futures totally ignored the higher fed cash trade on Friday.

In the North live sales developed at $240, up $5 and dressed mostly $372, up $9 from last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals were at $240, $5 higher (basis Kansas).

When Will Lean Hog Futures Quit Going Down?
Lean hog futures have had a wicked correction from the contract highs and hit new lows for the move again on Friday.

Funds have been liquidating a record long position and Sloup thinks the correction may continue with support on the charts $2 below the current market.

Will Gold Hit $5000?
The precious metal market has also been on fire recently with talk of gold hitting $5,000 yet in 2025 and Sloup says technically it looks like it is possible.

However, he says the global race to this safe haven commodity is also driving the buying interest and that will likely continue under the current geopolitical climate.

Cattle Crash on Trump's Plan to Lower Beef Prices: Row Crops Rally

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 15:13:47 GMT

Cattle are sharply lower, hogs mixed with corn and soybeans higher early Friday.

Cattle Crash on Trump’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday with some feeder cattle contracts touching limit down $9.25 as panic selling hit the complex.

Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices . Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.

“We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef,” Trump told reporters at the White House. The price of beef is “higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” Trump added, without elaborating.

What Could the Plan Entail?

Kooima says there is a great deal of speculation about what the plan could include.

One idea that is being floated is the possibility of the U.S. buying Argentina beef or at least lowering the quote and tariffs to allow more product to move into the U.S. This comes after a meeting between leaders of the two countries this week and Treasury Secretary Bessent remarking that the U.S. was considering another $20 billion bail out plan.

The trade has also been nervous about President Trump lifting the additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products including beef which is currently keeping their beef out of the U.S. or at least limited. They were a top beef importer prior to the tariffs.

While the border may stay closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports Kooima says increasing beef supplies in Mexico may also be another source of beef the U.S. could consider purchasing.

So far there has been nothing official except that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said they were not considering any cash payments for herd rebuilding.

Cash Cattle Higher in the North

Meanwhile the market is ignoring the news of higher fed cash trade in the North yesterday at $239 to mostly $240, up $5 from last week. Dressed prices at $372 to $373 were up $9 to $10.

Kooima says Southern bids had also been raised to $240 Friday morning.

Yearlings and calves at the sale barns were also continuing their trend of record prices on Thursday.

Are Hogs Close to Bottoming?

Lean hog futures were mixed early Friday with nearby contracts lower as fund liquidation has continued.

Kooima says he’s been watching the $85.00 level on February as an area of support but it was being flirted with on Friday morning.

Since the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report he says funds have been liquidating as the numbers were positive near term but bearish longer term and indicate increasing numbers.

Those are already being seen in daily slaughter totals and Kooima says that has been weighing on futures.

However, with the discount the futures are holding to the cash index he hopes the market will soon find some footing.

Corn, Soybeans Extend Gains

Corn and soybean futures were higher early Monday.

Corn was up for a fourth session and Koomia says it is seeing technical buying after December corn bounced off support earlier this week and then closed above key moving averages Thursday, including the 100 day.

However, he thinks lower than expected corn yield reports are also fueling some of the support.

Soybean futures were also higher as President Trump had more positive comments regarding China trade.

Can Cash Feeders Lead Cattle Back to New Highs? Corn and Soybeans See Harvest Pressure

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 14:57:30 GMT

Cattle started mixed Monday but quickly moved higher in both live and feeder cattle futures. Hogs are lower, grains are mostly lower early.

Live Cattle Bounce After Lower Weekly Close

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures closed lower for the week in the face of lower cash and cutouts.

Cash trade in the South was mostly $237, down $3 from last week. The North traded $233 midweek but $231 on Friday and $365 dressed, down $6 from last week’s weighted averages.

He expects cash to be lower again this week as he says producers have lost their leverage and now are holding cattle and feeder longer which will increase weights.

Boxed beef cutout values also continue to slide with Choice values now at $371.43, nearly $40 off the highs.

Only 4 Day Kill Schedule

Kooima says the packers have further cut kills and many majors will only have a four day slaughter schedule this week.

Last week’s slaughter was just 555,000 head, which is down 62,000 from last year.

Feeders Post a Higher Week, Can They Lead Live Cattle Higher?

Feeder cattle are still the bright spot of the cattle market and the futures posted a higher weekly close last week.

Kooima says the feeder cattle cash index continues to climb and is up another $2.57 today at $367.61.

So can cash feeders lead the entire futures complex back higher?

Kooima says they feeders have been the leaders and so he is hopeful they can eventually pull the market back up since supplies have continued to stay tight.

“You have the border closure to Mexican feeders likely being prolonged with the cash of New World Screwworm only 70 miles from the border and that should keep the supplies of feeders tight,” he says.

Lean Hog Futures Correct From Contract Highs

Lean hog futures are lower early Monday with some profit taking and hedge selling after the market his new contract highs again on Friday.

The bullish Hogs and Pigs Report supported last week’s higher weekly close but the funds are also record long in the market.

The key will be how long do the funds support their long position?

Corn and Soybeans See Harvest Pressure

Corn and soybeans are slightly lower on Monday seeing some hedge and harvest pressure with dry weather over the weekend and an open week for combining across the Midwest.

Kooima is concerned that corn and soybeans are setting on critical support areas that need to hold or the markets could take another leg lower.

There is some positioning ahead of the USDA reports on Tuesday but Koomia is not expecting much change from expectations.

One positive for the corn market is private exporters reported 5.3 million bu. of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025-26 marketing year and 4.4 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations, also for 2025-26.

‘Born, Raised, and Harvested’ South American Beef Containing Hard Plastic Found in U.S. Markets

Thu, 12 May 2022 13:50:44 GMT

South American beef imported to the U.S. under the label ‘Organic Rancher’ organic ground beef, packaged on April 20, 2022, may contain bits of hard plastic, according to the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service announcement .

Shipped to Whole Foods locations across the country, the 16-oz. vacuum-sealed packages containing 93% lean ground beef and 85% lean ground beef, both with use by date of May 18 could contain the pieces of the rigid plastic. Products also bear “EST. 4027” inside the USDA inspection mark.

No recall has been requested because the products are no longer available for purchase.

According to beef company, Organic Rancher, owner of Organic Rancher organic ground beef, claims their livestock are “born, raised, and harvested in Uruguay or Argentina on open, grassy pastures.”

Their beef also receives the stamp of Global Animal Partnership (G.A.P.) Step 4 Certification.

Under current import requirements, beef is allowed for import from Uruguay in raw, ready-to-eat and not-ready-to-eat shelf stable products. Raw beef is also eligible for import from Argentina , according to USDA-FSIS.

'Once in 100 Years' Drought Seen Affecting Argentine Grains Exports Into 2022

Fri, 13 Aug 2021 15:46:42 GMT

A once-a-century drought has lowered the water level of Argentina’s main grains transport river, reducing farm exports and boosting logistics costs in a trend that meteorologists said will likely continue into next year.

The South American grains powerhouse is the world’s No. 3 corn supplier and No. 1 exporter of soymeal livestock feed, used to fatten hogs and poultry from Europe to Southeast Asia. Farm exports are Argentina’s main source of hard currency needed to bolster central bank reserves sapped by a three-year recession.

Southern Brazil, source of the Parana River, has been hit by severe dryness for three years. This has reduced water levels in the Argentine ports hub of Rosario, Santa Fe province, where about 80% of the country’s agricultural exports are loaded.

“This is about a once-in-a-hundred-years event. That’s the type of frequency we are looking at,” said Isaac Hankes, a weather analyst at Refinitiv, financial and risk business of Thomson Reuters.

On Monday the United Nations climate panel’s report found that climate change is making extreme weather events more common. One meteorologist told Reuters the situation could “even get worse after the rainy season” set to start in late September.

Ships sailing from Rosario are loading 18% to 25% less cargo than normal due to the shallow water, said Guillermo Wade, manager of Argentina’s Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities.

Logistics costs are rising as more soy and corn must be trucked to the Atlantic ports of Bahia Blanca and Necochea, in southern Buenos Aires province, where ships make a final stop to be topped off with cargo before heading out to sea.

The Parana at Rosario was at 0.06 meters on Thursday versus a median 2.92 meters over the last 24 years, according to Argentina Coast Guard data. The measurement is a reference used by ship captains rather than an actual gauge of water depth.

GIMME SOME WATER

The drying trend in Brazil started in 2019. The next year was drier and 2021 has been the driest of the three years, Hankes said. The effect on the river is cumulative.

Over the last 12 months the Parana River basin has gotten only 50% to 75% of normal rainfall.

“We would need something like 130% of normal rainfall between now and February to replenish river levels. Anything less than 100% would be bad news for the river basin, and between now and February we expect maybe 80% of normal rainfall,” Hankes said.

“We do expect to see a wetter trend once we get into October-November, which you would typically see in the wet season anyway. But after that our best indications right now are that we could see a similar pattern to last year,” Hankes added.

The usually rainy Southern Hemisphere spring starts in September and ends in December. But the coming increase in water is expected to only temporarily help refresh the Parana.

“It could even get worse after the rainy season,” said German Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at consultancy Applied Climatology.

“This shallow level of the waterway is historic, and it is hard to predict when it could be reversed,” Heinzenknecht added.

A top Argentine oilseeds executive with an international exporter with major crushing operation in Rosario agreed that the Parana crisis will probably continue next year. The executive asked not to be named, as per company policy.

“The situation will remain critical until October, improving in the late fourth quarter and first quarter. But from April
onward, when Argentina’s soy and corn harvest starts, and the biggest number of cargo vessels are expected, the river at Rosario will be back to a scenario similar to 2021,” the executive said.

(Reporting by Hugh Bronstein, additional reporting by Maximilian Heath; Editing by David Gregorio)

Argentina Halts Beef Exports, Producers To Strike

Wed, 19 May 2021 19:57:59 GMT

Argentina’s beef sector is in turmoil after the government announced a 30-day ban on beef exports in an unorthodox move to try to contain runaway inflation which is approaching 50% annually.

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernandez told beef exporters they won’t be allowed to sell the product abroad for 30 days, according to a Production Ministry statement released late Monday. In that period, the government will determine a set of emergency measures for the sector. “The president expressed his concern over the sustained growth in domestic beef prices over the last few months,” according to a statement. The ban suggests the government is willing to sacrifice much-needed dollars from exports to appease local consumers ahead of a key midterm election later this year.

The country’s four main farm groups said in a statement they would launch a nine-day halt in livestock trading starting on Thursday in protest and could take further measures.

“We are going to join together immediately to totally reject this disastrous measure,” Daniel Peregrina, president of the Argentina Rural Society industry group, told the Buenos Aires Times. “The damage caused by the measure will decrease the supply of meat, making prices rise as has happened in the past.”

There have been additional industry responses. Merco Press reported that the Rafaela Alimentos processing plant in Casilda, which employs 650 workers, has temporarily shut down.

Argentina, the world’s fourth-largest beef exporter, shipped out $3.37 billion in beef products and leather last year, mainly to China, Germany and Israel. Following the announcement of the beef export ban, asking prices from beef exporters rose sharply. So far in 2021, Argentine meat prices are up 22% and in the last 12 months prices are up 65%.

Beef-Mad Argentina Preparing for Unthinkable as Meat Costs Soar

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:46:34 GMT

Beef is now so expensive in Argentina, which once was the third-largest exporter, that slaughtering plants are about to start importing cattle from neighboring countries for the first time in almost two decades.

It’s a big switch for a population that eats more beef per person than any other and where the meat has become as much a part of their national identity as the tango or World Cup soccer. Rising costs have encouraged what was almost unthinkable a decade ago: beef demand is dropping, and consumers are substituting with cheaper chicken and pork.

Argentina’s cattle industry -- the third-largest exporter a decade ago -- was upended by the end of price controls and a devaluation of the peso under newly elected President Mauricio Macri, who altered the policies of his predecessors to revive an economy hobbled by a government debt default. In December, the start of the South American summer, the price of beef used for barbecues known as asados surged 28 percent. To ease the strain, Macri authorized imports of beef and cattle from neighbors like Uruguay.

“This is a shame -- an unexpected event that is the result of 12 years of wrong government policies,” said Ulises Forte, who has 500 head of cattle at a ranch in La Pampa province and is president of the Institute for the Promotion of Beef Argentina (IPCVA). “Fortunately, these imports won’t be that high.”

Herd Shrinks

Before Macri arrived, the governments of former presidents Nestor Carlos Kirchner and, later, his wife, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner discouraged beef exports with rules intended to keep domestic supplies ample and prices low. Instead, ranchers lost the incentive to expand herds, which shrank to 52 million head last year from 60 million in 2003. Raising cattle was more costly than using the land to grow soybeans, so many switched.

Argentina’s beef exports, which surpassed all but Brazil and Australia in 2005, tumbled 69 percent over the next decade and ranked 11th in the world last year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Shipments were the lowest in 11 years, government data show.

To revive the incentives for ranchers, the government lifted export restrictions and devalued the peso. The Argentine currency has plunged 49 percent against the dollar since Dec. 1, which makes it more profitable for farmers and ranchers to ship their products overseas to buyers who pay in U.S. currency.

Two Years

But that won’t solve the cattle problem right away. It can take two years to expand the herd because more cows are being withheld from slaughter for breeding. After a nine-month gestation period, it takes another six months or more to raise calves to slaughter weight. Beef output fell by 6 percent to 215,000 metric tons in January from December as ranchers brought fewer animals to market.

“During the Kirchner administrations, breeders dismantled their herds as beef wasn’t profitable,” said Miguel Schiariti, the president of CICCRA, an industry group. “With these new rules, the business will again be profitable, but rebuilding a herd takes time, and consumers will have to pay more for a product that was subsidized before.”

When the currency plunged, the cost of meat for domestic consumers surged. Barbecue beef jumped to 112.09 pesos ($7.29) per kilogram (2.2 pounds) in December, up from 87.68 pesos in November, industry data show. That’s discouraged buying in a country where people eat 1.1 kilograms of beef a week on average. Demand for the meat tumbled 7 percent in January from the same month in 2015.

Allowing Imports

To ease the pain, Macri lifted import restrictions. The last time Argentina allowed ranchers to bring in cattle from outside the country was 1998, and it rarely permits non-domestic meat. In 2013, the government authorized 1.5 tons of rib imports, and in the 1990s allowed 10 tons of sweet breads from the U.S.

“We can import because our beef prices are higher than our neighbors,” said Maria Antonelli, an analyst at the Bahia Blanca Exchange. The export price of Argentina’s novillo is $330 a metric ton, compared with $320 for the same cut from Uruguay, $235 from Brazil, and $245 from Paraguay.

While Uruguay consumes 30 percent of its output and exports the rest, Argentina has been eating a larger share of its domestic supply. The country now eats 93 percent of production, exporting only 7 percent, compared with the average of past years when it consumed 70 percent and shipped 30 percent, government data show.

Uruguay, which is 15 times smaller than Argentina by land area, exported 360,000 tons last year, while Argentina shipped just 230,000 tons. Paraguay exported 400,000 tons, and Brazil shipped 1.6 million tons.

“The U.S. model of importing cheap beef for ground beef and exporting expensive cuts to Asia would be a good model to be followed by Argentina,” said Raul Milano, executive director at Rosario-based Mercado Ganadero SA, the country’s largest broadcast auction market. “We should also export most of the tenderloin we can and import ribs.”

For the next year or so, Argentina’s ranchers will focus on increasing cattle weights to generate more beef for export, even as they withhold more cows for breeding.

“Breeders will have the chance to fatten their herds and get higher export prices in two years,” Leonardo Sarquis, the agriculture minister of Buenos Aires province, said in an interview in Ramallo, 214 kilometers (133 miles) north of Buenos Aires.

Argentina Opens for Business at Last

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:45:17 GMT

For the first time in two decades, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is bringing business leaders to Argentina. Global hedge funds are snapping up the country’s assets. Farmers across the fertile pampas are getting ready to empty silo bags of corn and soybeans after years of withholding part of their crop in anger over tax policies.

Nine days before a closely-watched presidential election in Argentina, it would be hard to overstate the level of expectation in the business world. BRF SA, Brazil’s largest food company, is expanding two factories and planning acquisitions. BayWa AG, the Munich-based grain trader, is building its first office in South America’s second-largest economy. Arca Continental SAB, Latin America’s No.2 Coca-Cola bottler, talks of “tremendous opportunity.”

“There are many, many opportunities in that country,” Chief Executive Officer Francisco Garza Egloff of Arca Continental said on a conference call with investors Oct. 23. “Well-located, well-positioned in terms of energy, commodity and so on, no debt. It’s a tremendous opportunity to work with a well-educated and prepared population.”

The turnaround in attitude is stark. For years, doing business in Argentina has been enormously frustrating, with 30 percent inflation, currency controls that make it costly to get money out of the country, sub-par economic growth and unpredictable government policies. The reward has never seemed closer for foreign companies that stuck it out, betting a country that’s home to an educated workforce, the world’s second-largest shale gas reserves and the third-largest source of soybean exports would eventually normalize. On Nov. 22, Argentines will choose between two presidential candidates who have promised change from the past dozen years of leftist populism led by the Kirchner family.

“We’re getting the right overtures right now that this election may represent a renewed relationship with the U.S. and the U.S. business community,” said Jodi Hanson Bond, the vice president for the Americas at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The optimistic notes from foreign companies follow moves by hedge funds and other investors who say the departure of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will bring a windfall.

Hedge-fund firms including Soros Fund Management LLC, Third Point LLC and Perry Capital LLC have seen their investments soar amid speculation the next government will settle a lawsuit with creditors, return to international capital markets and undertake reforms designed to bolster growth.

Unacknowledged in all the enthusiasm is that the turnaround may not be swift or easy in Argentina, and there’s no shortage of pessimism on the region as a whole with several European banks shrinking their operations in Latin America.

Argentina is engaged in an epic legal battle with hedge funds fighting for full repayment on debt the country stopped paying in 2001. Its economic data is viewed with skepticism by the International Monetary Fund. Its currency is so overvalued, and limits on buying and selling the dollar are so strict, that the country has developed several parallel exchange rates used by individuals and businesses when they can’t get dollars through official channels.

Both leading presidential candidates advocate the need for change, even if they have different approaches. The opposition’s Mauricio Macri has promised to lift capital controls and let the peso float, while Daniel Scioli of the ruling party vows to make gradual reforms while initially preserving currency controls.

Either way, the change of government will have repercussions for more than 70 companies listed in the S&P 500 Index that have currency exposure in Argentina, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The country also hosts some of the world’s largest energy producers, including BP Plc, Total SA and Petroleo Brasileiro SA.

“In terms of opportunities going forward, Argentina would be at the top into 2016,” James Harbilas, the chief executive officer of Calgary-based Enerflex Ltd., said when asked by an investor where he saw the biggest opportunity in Latin America for the oil and gas field services provider.

The upbeat tone has been especially widespread among companies with ties to agriculture, one of the sectors hardest hit by Fernandez’s tax policies. Argentine farmers have protested what they consider unfair treatment for several years, in part by holding back crops and storing them in bags that can be seen dotted along rural roads, as they wait for a new government and policy.

Both Scioli and Macri have pledged to scrap the 23 percent levy on corn exports and to reduce the 35 percent tax on soybean exports.

That’s good news to Soren Schroder, the chief executive officer of White Plains, New York-based Bunge Ltd., the world’s largest oilseed processor. He told analysts and investors on Oct. 29 that after years of isolation, he sees Argentina opening up no matter who wins the elections.

“We all believe that starting some time in the first quarter, the Argentine farmer will start letting loose on some of the soybeans that are accumulating,” Schroder said. “They’ll be sitting on over 10 million tons of beans as it looks right now as we move into the new crop, and some of that should come out in the first quarter prior to their new crop harvest.”

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., the world’s largest corn processor said on a conference call last week that it expects more exports out of Argentina, while BayWa executives told analysts and investors on Nov. 5 that they found the Argentine soy industry to be “very impressive.”

Jorge Becerra, a managing director for Latin America at the Boston Consulting Group, said businesses are seeing opportunities to bolster investments in Argentina no matter who wins the election. Companies focused on infrastructure, energy and financial services are among those looking for opportunities in the country, according to Becerra.

“There’s a renewed interest in understanding how to harness, monetize and promote growth in the country,” Becerra said from Santiago.

First Argentina Beef Imports Since 2001 Land In U.S.

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:22:21 GMT

The first beef imported to the U.S. from Argentina in more than 17 years landed in Philadelphia on Friday, March 1, 2019. In November 2018, the U.S. lifted the ban on beef from Argentina that was imposed after a 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.

This shipment of several tons of lean Argentine beef said to be used primarily for higher end cuts and hamburgers, originating from Buenos Aires, and was transported on the Hamburg Süd M/V Rio Barrow. Argentina will be allowed to export up to 22,000 tons a year to the United States, and U.S. producers can ship unlimited amounts of beef to Argentina.

Fernando Oris de Roa, the Argentine ambassador to the United States, greeted the shipment at the Packer Avenue Marine Terminal, at the Port of Philadelphia, which claims to be the largest port for imported beef in America.

Related content:

Argentina’s Crisis is Great for Steak But Bad For Argentinian Ranchers

Cash-Strapped Argentines Won't Give Up Their Beloved Beef

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:23:47 GMT

Four blocks from the presidential palace in downtown Buenos Aires, a construction worker organizes lunch for his 25-person crew.

Rather than fetching sandwiches from a nearby store, he’s cooking up two huge slabs of beef and sausages inside the three-foot-high bucket of a mechanical digger that serves as a makeshift barbecue.

“It’s a luxury we aren’t ready to give up,” says Carlos, one of the workers, who will pay 135 pesos ($3.80) for the meal served without salad or even a plate. “Without our end-of-the-week asado, we couldn’t survive.”

Argentines are prepared to sacrifice a lot amid the longest recession in 17 years -- from buying stale bread to forgoing name-brand pasta. But they’re not about to skimp on beef.

In the sixth-largest ranching nation, grilled beef is so ingrained in culinary and social habits that consumption is proving resilient to belt-tightening. Argentines wolfed down their famed grilled cuts at an annualized rate of 57.7 kilograms (127 pounds) per person in the first 10 months, up slightly from the last two years, according to data compiled by industry group CICCRA. A dip in September proved short lived with consumption bouncing back in October.

The data show Argentina is still much more carnivorous than much richer nations on a per capita basis. To be sure, that may not be surprising considering how tender and flavorsome the country’s grass-fed beef is.

But it’s coming as the economy is predicted to shrink 2 percent this year, inflation is running at about 40 percent, unemployment is nudging 10 percent and the peso is down almost 50 percent, the most among emerging currencies. It’s little surprise then that consumer confidence is the lowest since President Mauricio Macri took office in late 2015.

Other staples are getting hit hard.

Bread consumption was down 40 percent in September from August, according to a organization representing 300 bakeries, partly because of a surge in costs as Macri winds back energy subsidies. Some bakeries have stopped giving away bread at the end of the day and instead are selling it at a 50 percent discount.

“This crisis is the worst I have seen in my 76 years,” Daniel Insua, an adviser and former president of the Western Bakeries Association, said by telephone. “A lot of our members are going back to wood ovens as it’s cheaper than using natural gas.”

Premium gasoline consumption has also slumped as people switch to cheaper regular fuel, while shoppers are going down market in products such as pasta, rice and sodas. But there’s little to show they’re seeking out cheaper proteins.

“Some, mainly pensioners, are buying less beef, but they keep buying,” said Delfina Porcel, a butcher and grocer in the Buenos Aires neighborhood of Constitucion. “Most of them have stopped buying tomatoes or lettuce rather than beef.”

First Thing Today: Dual Port Strikes Hit Argentina

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:17:41 GMT

Good morning!

Firmer tone overnight... Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher as of 6:40 a.m. CT. Soybeans are posting even stronger gains of 2 to 3 cents. Winter wheat futures are fractionally to 2 cents higher, while HRS wheat is up 1 to 4 cents. Gains come despite a firmer tone in the U.S. dollar index. Crude oil futures are slightly higher.

Dual port strikes hit Argentina... Yesterday, URGARA inspectors union launched a 48-hour work stoppage that coincides with a three-day strike by the government sanitary inspection union Senasa in Argentina. Together, the strikes are halting movement of soybeans, soymeal and other grains and byproducts in the midst of the busy harvest season.

Weather causes some ports to close in southern Brazil, disrupting meat trade... Bad weather in southern Brazil has resulted in the closure of ports in Itajaí and Rio Grande the past several days, according to local media reports. BRF SA, the world’s No. 1 poultry exporter, says the closures may curb total meat product exports by 25,000 MT for May.

Major expansion package approved for world’s largest soy crushing plant... The Inter-American Investment Corporation, the International Finance Corporation and Cooperative Rabobank U.A. have agreed to a $410-million financing package with Renova S.A. to expand the world’s largest soybean crushing plant, which is located in Argentina. The project will expand the plant’s daily soy crushing capacity from 20,000 MT to 30,000 MT. Plus, it will boost the plant’s grain storage and loading capacity. The money will also be used to construct a barges terminal.

Strong demand continues at Chinese corn auctions... China sold nearly 3.231 MT of the 2013 reserve corn put up for auction today at an average price of 1,377 yuan ($202.38) per metric ton, reports China’s National Grain Trade Center. This represents an impressive 93.03% of the grain offered at the auction.

Caixin PMI reflects contraction in Chinese manufacturing... China’s Caixin Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in May, dropping below the 50.0-point level that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing industry. This was a 0.7-point drop from April, the lowest level in 11 months and below expectations for a reading of 50.1.

Russian ag minister expects higher grain shipments in 2017-18... Russia will likely export between 37 MMT and 38 MMT of grain in 2017-18, which would be up from shipments between 34 MMT and 35 MMT this season, according to Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev, as cited by TASS news agency. Tkachev also lowered his estimate of Russia’s 2017 grain crop from 110 MMT to a range of 100 MMT to 105 MMT, citing unfavorable weather.

Poor spring weather prompts lower EU crop estimates... The European Commission has trimmed its estimate of the bloc’s usable common wheat production for 2017-18 by 600,000 MT to 141.3 MMT. Bad weather this spring has curbed crop prospects. The EU corn crop will likely total 64.2 MMT, which is down 2.3 MMT from month-ago. The Commission slashed its usable barley production estimate by 2.9 MMT to 59.5 MMT. It also trimmed its rapeseed production outlook from 22.2 MMT to 21.9 MMT.

Trump decision on Paris Accord coming today... “I will be announcing my decision on Paris Accord, Thursday at 3:00 P.M. [ET] The White House Rose Garden. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter. During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump blasted the accord, and called global warming a hoax aimed at weakening U.S. industry. The landmark agreement asks the nearly 200 participating countries to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions in an effort to combat climate change.

Fed president says four rate hikes a possibility in 2017 if growth impresses... San Francisco Fed President John Williams said he views three rate hikes in 2017 as his baseline scenario and even sees a fourth increase if growth surprises to the upside. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, a permanent voter on monetary policy who may succeed Chair Janet Yellen next year, is scheduled to speak before the Economic Club of New York today.

J&F hit with record-setting fine... J&F Investimentos, the controlling shareholder of JBS SA, has agreed to pay a record-setting 10.3 billion real ($3.2 billion) leniency fine for its role in corruption scandals rocking Brazil. The company will have 25 years to make the payments and they will begin in December 2017. The fine is being paid by the holding company to protect minority shareholders of JBS.

Near steady cash cattle trade anticipated... Cash prices slipped just marginally at yesterday’s online Fed Cattle Exchange auction, leading traders to believe that this week’s cash action will get underway at at prices similar to last week’s $132 action on the Central and Southern Plains. A few hundred head changed hands in Kansas at $132.00 and in Texas at $132.50 yesterday, with some light sales in Nebraska from $131 to $132. Also supportive is talk that retailers are buying beef for Father’s Day.

Hogs rally around cash market strength... Lean hog futures surged to new highs on Wednesday, pulling nearby contracts back into overbought territory according to the nine-day Relative Strength Index. Strength stemmed from ongoing gains in the cash hog market thanks to strong processing margins, as well as improved pork movement on Wednesday.

Overnight demand news... South Korea’s Major Feed Mill Group bought around 68,000 MT of corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender. The country’s Feed Leaders Committee also purchased around 66,000 MT of corn from the U.S. or South America in a private, non-tender deal. Egypt purchased 120,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat. Jordan issued an international tender to buy 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat from optional origins.

Today’s reports:

7:30 a.m., Drought Monitor -- USDA/NWS
9:30 a.m., Weekly Ethanol Production -- EIA
2:00 p.m., Broiler Hatchery -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Fats & Oils -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Grain Crushings -- NASS