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Outside influences such as investor interest, changes in U.S. trade policy, unexpected consequences from tax laws and potential changes in the next farm bill could also send farmland values south.

Ferrie believes technology should be held to a high bar—not just increasing yields but also reducing input costs to maximize the return on investment.

While Dale Durcholz does think there’s potential for a grain production number shift, he says the winter farmers and feed yards have faced is more likely to be the cause of a grain stocks shift lower.