Do America's trade policies push ranchers out of business? That's a protectionist's view, but there's no evidence suggesting ranchers “displaced” by beef imports – nor being unduly damaged in the marketplace.
USDA reports are not an exact science of data collection and should not be treated as such. We have to take the information from all reports, reported and/or surveyed, and use it accordingly in our analysis.
There's a lot of rhetoric surrounding beef trade that we shouldn't accept at face value. A closer look at the data shows America’s ranchers are the direct beneficiaries of international trade.
Sine 2000, per capita domestic spending for beef has grown at about $11 annually, and Prime and Branded sales account for 60% of those new dollars since 2005. Marbling is the difference maker.
The economic environment of both the beef and pork industries has changed. Capacity utilization for both beef and pork has a significant impact on margins and the market impact goes beyond supply and demand.
Adding the Secretary of Agriculture to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is an important step forward for strengthening our security.
Even as consumers are sensitive to higher prices, beef demand remains strong. Increases in beef's overall quality and uniformity over the years has spurred that demand growth and marbling has been the difference maker.
Cattle are NOT fungible – value differences across the slaughter mix is enormous. Precision pricing – via a grid – makes a huge difference and attempts to mandate arbitrary levels of live cash trade negates that reality.
We’re in a predictable period of a well-established supply and demand cycle. Yet there is a different potential crisis looming for the beef cattle industry.
Drovers' cowboy columnist believes "there was value beyond economics to the agriculture of my youth, with chicken houses to be scooped and cows to be milked and gardens to be tended."
The reliability of marbling is making a difference – and cattle feeders are taking advantage. With real dollars at stake, more cattle are committed to negotiated sales and betting on the grid is paying off.
America's cattlemen continue to resist any traceability policy that is not strictly voluntary. But how long will stakeholders up the chain continue to give beef a pass?
Inflation has hit food prices especially hard, but higher prices haven't driven consumers away from beef. Why is that? The Checkoff-funded National Beef Quality Audit provides some clues.
This is the third in a series on Livestock Risk Protection. The previous two addressed misperceptions of market impact from LRP. The remaining topic – subsidy harvesting – is the most interesting and controversial.
Do cattle producers have the narrative correct regarding the impact of LRP? Some assumptions may be completely disconnected. Let’s revisit this still-kicking horse.
The beef market has become increasingly dependent on consumer demand – consumers who are both willing and able to continue purchasing beef at higher prices.
When we let ourselves focus on outside influences we are succumbing to defeatism. The better approach is to focus on those things you can control: you versus you.
Imports and exports [both product and cattle] create value and provide opportunity for all trading partners, thereby underpinning the reason international trade exists. A review of data confirming the value of trade.
There remains a lot of noise around the issue of LRPs in the cattle markets. That was best described by one of my readers last week: “[most of the critics] don’t even understand the facts, let alone the myths.”
Methodical grind. There’s no question talent makes a difference, but what makes the biggest difference is commitment -- the daily decision to choose to work hard and show up.
Following up on a recent column, Nevil Speer reports on the advice from a seasoned grain analyst: Three things that you should do for success in 2024, plus, four things NOT to do. Remember, it's "you versus you."
The most important thing largely revolves around our perspective, and subsequent management, of risk (or lack thereof). Eleven essential tips for risk management.
The gray wolves relocated from Oregon to Colorado have a lengthy rap sheet. Maybe the secret reintroduction ceremony included a secret clemency grant from the Governor.
Activists will intensify their calls to end grazing and beef production over the next several years as climate change and carbon emissions become the priority as opposed to just protecting the environment.
LRPs and options are essential risk management tools, but coffee shop talk suggests LRPs are driving the cash market lower. Let's examine the data to keep the discussion measured and objective.
Some blame the recent rout in the futures markets on LRP (Livestock Revenue Protection), a claim that is wholly unsubstantiated. A look at the data confirms LRP blame really is a smoke monster.
While tighter cattle numbers and further declines in beef production will support higher prices, demand will increasingly become the critical market driver in 2024.
There seems a belief that speculators – either too many or not quite enough – are solely responsible for driving the market one direction or another. But bashing speculators is what people do who don’t like the price.
Cattle futures markets have come under criticism lately for their volatility. A common theme is there are "too many shorts" or "too many longs." That ignores the fundamental fact that futures markets must come in pairs.
A snowballing effect from several factors has led to the present market flush in cattle futures and provides a stark contrast between emotion and factfulness.
USDA’s regular October reports provided insight about future beef production. Any thoughts of herd restocking that may have existed earlier have been put on hold for now.
Beef’s critics see an industry that is corrupt and/or broken with NCBA and packers padding their pockets. The facts tell a different story. Beef is winning the marketplace…and it’s not even close.
USDA's recent October 1, 2023, Cattle on Feed report offered a few surprising numbers. How does that report square up with previously released USDA data?
Profitability challenges in the dairy sector make the value of beef-on-dairy (BXD) calves more important and underscores the reality that dairy cows are now on double duty.
Prices for day-old beef-X-dairy (BXD) calves are often surprisingly high. But what used to be a highly discounted after-thought (straight dairy calves) is rapidly transforming into a meaningful source of production.
Prices across the entire beef complex have reached record levels. Demand remains the key variable, and now may be the time to measure demand through the value of the various cuts of the carcass.
When considering the capital commitment required to maintain a cow over her lifetime, genetic testing is really a financial risk management tool and an investment in total herd profitability.
The demise of cattle feedlots is a talking point often used to stir emotion among those in the industry. How might such claims be argued in court where alternative facts are usually exposed under cross examination?
More days on feed means more opportunity for something going wrong – ultimately ending in increased death loss. Preventive illness management before arrival is more important than ever.
There’s mounting evidence of a protracted cattle cycle because whatever happens from here, Speer says, next year’s starting cow herd number will be down sharply.