Now Is the Time to Pay Attention to the Weather Forecast: Severe Snowstorm Forecasted to Dump Multiple Feet of Snow
U.S. Farm Report 010624 - Outlook for Major Winter Weather
As the calendar flipped to the new year, Mother Nature unleashed the potential for back-to-back blasts of winter weather. From the possibility of blizzard conditions early next week, to flooding in the southeast, the impact on agriculture could be two-fold: a possible cure for drought conditions in parts of the Plains and South, but stressful for livestock.
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the forecast is pointing to a very active weather winter pattern in January, which is a hallmark of El Niño.
“There's no question about it. As I always say, you can't blame an individual or a single storm and El Niño, but you start looking at the overall patterns, and there's absolutely no question that when you start seeing a pattern setting up like this, a storm pipeline from the Pacific coming across the Southwest and into the Midwest or east, that is El Niño,” Rippey says.
Eric Snodgrass is a well-known ag meteorologist who’s also watching the change in potential winter weather this month. He says El Niño reached its peak at the end of December.
“It has plateaued. And what that typically means is we tend to have what we call a back-half weighted winter, which means December is usually pretty mild, not a whole lot to talk about, but once we get going into this new year, that jet stream is really going to start to become quite a bit more active,” Snodgrass says.
Active Jet Stream Set to Bring Multiple Winter Storms
The active jet stream is exactly what the U.S. is now seeing, with multiple storms lined up for the start of the year. Rippey says it’s an active storm track that starts in the South, eventually ending up along the East Coast.
“The storm that's coming out late this week, it's going to be a decent storm system - a decent winter storm. But it's going to pale in comparison to the blockbuster storm that we see coming for early next week,” he says.
High Plains with current storm 53% covered in shallow layer of snow. Feet of snow on the way? pic.twitter.com/fAZzWeHurr — Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024
Snowfall reports from the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque, New Mexico station shows impressive snowfall already falling in the Rocky Mountains. As of midday Friday, January 5, NWS reports 10 to 18 inch snowfall totals in the southern Rockies before it made its way across Kansas.
Eye-Popping Snowfall Totals Possible
However, Rippey says this first snow system isn’t the headline. Early to mid-week next week, a different significant storm will emerge from the Southwest and Four Corners region, which could bring monstrous snowfall totals.
“That storm will be going across the Central and Southern Plains Monday and reach the lower Great Lakes region by Wednesday,” Rippey says. “That system really has the potential to create a wide degree of disarray across the country.”
The storm early next week will pack a punch with high winds, but it will also bring much needed drought relief. NOAA is warning of weather impacts that will span from Coast to Coast. They report heavy snow is likely in the higher elevation with blizzard conditions possible. The high winds are expected to hit much of the Central and Eastern U.S., with some winds exceeding 50 MPH.
“Some of them can be big snow makers through parts of the Midwest and some of them are putting down some heavy rains across the South,” Snodgrass says. "And the big picture here is that our U.S. Drought Monitor, which still shows about 50% to 55% of the land area in some form of drought, about one-third of it in the drought categories, that could really change a lot in the coming weeks.”
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Winter arrives finally. 10 days from now mountains, West, Plains, North BURIED! pic.twitter.com/EbPLLFlB74 — Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024
The winter storm is forecasted to bring heavy snow, which could provide relief for winter wheat country.
“We've already chipped away at the drought across the Great Plains,” Rippey says. “If you look at USDA’s winter wheat condition, we saw improvement from the end of November to the end of December. Kansas winter wheat jumped from 32% good to excellent at the end of November to 43% in December. Oklahoma saw a big jump from 53% to 67% good to excellent. So more moisture, more snow - that'll be good news for winter wheat.
While the storm system will bring much needed relief, it could also pose problems for livestock producers.
“As the storm crosses the southern Great Plains and moves into the Midwest, we're going to have a big wind-driven snow event. So certainly, some livestock stress. And then for the Southeast, those folks where it's not a drought situation, they could be dealing with flooding and flash flooding, as well as our first significant severe weather outbreak of the season early next week,” Rippey says.
Euro model... 😳❄️🌨️ pic.twitter.com/PqZKmP7G0W — Darin D. Fessler ✝️ (@DDFalpha) January 5, 2024
Much Need Moisture in Areas
As the south braces for impacts of the forecasted storms, Snodgrass says that moisture is desperately needed.
“The South has been, in my opinion, on the wildest ride with moisture in the last 24 months compared to any other place on the planet at this point,” he says.
And as this El Niño pattern takes hold, Snodgrass thinks cotton country could final see some relief this winter.
“I think the best chance for recovery and moisture is going to be across the South, pockets of the Mid-South, the Southeast and in the East Coast,” Snodgrass says. "That track from Texas to South Carolina to Maine, I like it. That area is going to be getting some good moisture.”
It's not just snow that producers will need to brace for, but temperatures are forecast to plunge with a possible Artic blast. Weather models are pointing to extremely cold and extreme Arctic air also moving in.
Still watching historic climate emergency risk from Arctic blast 📉❄️🌡️
Overnight weather model [ECMWF HRES 00Z] still shows historic Arctic blast into the Pacific Northwest and Western U.S. in 6-7 days.
Extremely cold w/potential for snowfall along California coast including… pic.twitter.com/PsNLPAccdj — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 5, 2024
The Duration of El Niño
Snodgrass says the question is how long until El Niño fades, and the impact it could have on the spring.
“If El Niño peaks right now and begins to fade throughout the rest of winter and into spring, I’ve looked at every event since 1960, and most times when that happens, we tend to do okay in the Midwest the following year in terms of precipitation. That's not a guarantee, but you look at historically, we tend to go out of ridge riding storms, which are often the types of storms that save crops,” he says.
That scenario, however, spells trouble for key growing areas of the South this spring and summer.
“The only way you can get a ridge riding storm system, though, is to put heat and drought across the South. That's the Cotton Belt that could be impacted negatively by that,” Snodgrass says. “That's all speculative. But that's all you got this time of years to base it off of those bigger picture things.”
Areas of the Country Could Still Be Dry This Spring
With the active storms to start the year, there are still pockets of the country that need much more moisture to replenish dry soils before spring.
“I'm worried about the Northern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I'm worried about the Canadian Prairie on drought. I'm worried about the lack of snowfall we've had so far in parts of the upper Midwest. We need to be piling a whole lot more snow there.”
The debate of just how long El Niño will last is heating up. There’s even talk of La Nina making a return this year. There’s no certainty either way, but for now, Snodgrass says a strong shot of winter weather isn’t a bad thing.
“I'll just tell you this, the nastiest winters we've ever had, have almost always given us fantastic springs and summers,” he says. “So, I hate to say it, but I’m wishing for just a terrible second half of winter so that I can talk to you next spring summer and say, ‘Hey wasn't that terrible? But now look what we got out of it.’”
