Production Problems in the Eastern Corn Belt? A Look at NOAA's New Summer Drought Outlook

Conditions are dry across the Corn Belt, and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) seasonal drought outlook shows the eastern Corn Belt could continue to get drier through the summer months.

The updated Seasonal Drought Monitor was just released late last week and provides a snapshot of likely conditions from June 15 through September 30. This updated Monitor indicates dryness and drought will continue to expand across eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

NOAA also sees drought conditions developing across more of Illinois, northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan. 

“Drier, warm conditions across the Northwest promoted some drought expansion across the Cascades and coastal Washington,” NOAA indicated in the outlook this week. “East of the Plains, a persistent blocking pattern promoted persistently below-normal rainfall, resulting in a rapid onset of drought and abnormal dryness across much of the Corn Belt, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”

Read More: Drought Concerns Grow as 57% of Corn, 51% of Soybeans in the U.S. Now Considered to Be in Drought

As a result, NOAA says more widespread drought development is anticipated for the central Corn Belt, Great Lakes Region and into western New York.

“Long-range forecasts are favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures,” says NOAA. “Forecast confidence is very low for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as periods of rainfall may help prevent further degradation, but low stream flows and soil moisture content ahead of the climatologically hottest month of the year will be tough to completely overcome.”

What About El Nino? 

NOAA officially declared the arrival of El Nino earlier this month, and as Drew Lerner of World Weather points out, there are mixed signals when it comes to moisture and El Nino, especially during the transition.

“There is a correlation with weak to moderate El Nino events and summer dryness in the eastern Midwest. I do have a little issue with that correlation, though, because it assumes El Nino is well-established and, in this case, we are still in the developmental stages of El Nino which might skew the data,” says Lerner. “So, in looking at two years, 1965 and 1972, in which we had a January La Nina and were in El Nino in either May or June the below-average precipitation bias was more in the heart of the Midwest during June and then it was whittled back by scattered showers and thunderstorms in July and more so in August, forcing the greater rainfall anomalies more into the eastern Midwest and southeastern states over time.”

Lerner says during the years, the improving precipitation bias did not end the moisture deficits, but it did provide some better rainfall for late reproducing crops – especially soybeans. 

There are some positive developments in NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook. NOAA says the Southeast has much higher chances of rain in the short-term.

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected in the Southeast, which NOAA says would preclude short-term drought development there.

Good News for the Western Corn Belt

There is some good news. NOAA says more improvements look to be in store for the Western Corn Belt and Plains, with either improving or going away in eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. 

While meteorologists expected some improvements in drought areas due to El Nino, Lerner says there’s one issue with forecasts earlier this year: The expected timing of El Nino.

“The predicted wetter biases that some meteorologists touted earlier this year were assuming that El Nino would be fully developed in the summer and, therefore, greater moisture would be available in the atmosphere,” says Lerner. “That will be more true for 2024 than 2023. There is also a problem with interpretation of the ‘wetter’ bias.  El Nino events add moisture to the atmosphere, but they are not always the controlling weather feature, especially not in the mid-latitudes during the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, if the bias for the summer is already wet then El Nino can make it wetter. Similarly, if the summer is advertised to be drier and El Nino comes along it can make it less dry and improve crops which is what most of the trade thinks of when they think of El Nino.”

A Look at the Drought Picture Today

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the key takeaways from the drought monitor released last Thursday include:

• Large sections of the Midwest have seen 1- to 3-category deterioration over the past month, with a few areas of severe drought (D2) appearing east of the Mississippi River.
• In the western Corn Belt, of course, there are both long- and short-term drought issues, along with some pockets of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4).
   

Rippey says he's also keeping a close eye on the heat and dryness expected this week.

"Currently, blocking high pressure remains in place at higher latitudes of North America," says Rippey. "This blocking feature will only strengthen in coming days, reinforcing the unfavorably dry weather pattern across much of the Midwest."

Read More: Weather Woes: 36 to 42 Million Acres of Corn and Soybeans Are in Trouble

Lerner thinks the lack of rainfall in recent months has more to do with La Nina fading away than it does El Nino entering the picture.

“Multi-year La Nina events that come to an end in the spring will always lead to a weaker jet stream and one with many splits and cutoffs,” says Lerner. “The disjointed Jet Stream reduces the amount of energy each storm system has to produce precipitation. In addition to that, the split jet stream can lead to numerous weather systems move along the Gulf of Mexico coast or over the Gulf Coast States blocking surface moisture from the Gulf of Mexico from flowing northward into the Midwest. This year is a perfect example of this.”

Lerner says there have been storm systems moving across the southeastern states, which have also prevented a south to north wind to carrying moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

“This year’s prolonged split jet stream has also delayed the onset and positioning of the Bermuda high pressure system further restricting the southeasterly surface wind flow and adding to the reduced moisture flux into the Midwest,” says Rippey.

Is This a Repeat of 2012?

Even with shots of rain this past weekend, the storm system produced rainfall totals that were extremely sporadic. That also seems to be a theme so far this year. Farmers farther west reported more moisture than this in the eastern Corn Belt. 

So, is this a repeat of 2012? Lerner says there is not a single good year to compare to as an analog year.

“I believe the melding of 1976, 1965 and 1972 can help tremendously,” says Lerner. “I also think 2005 should be looked at as well.  2012 should not be ignored since we are in worse moisture shape today than we were at this time in 2012, but the declining conditions that occurred in the balance of that year’s summer were dramatic and far more serious than we anticipated for this year. We should not have the heat we had in 2012, and that will make a big difference.”

Lerner points out that since planting occurred so quickly this year, which was due to the dry conditions and few rain events pushing farmers across the Midwest out of the field, he says it also means the crop’s development is being impacted by weather earlier in the season.

“Since corn planting occurred so well this year, the crop will be more vulnerable to this early-season, limited rainfall. We may get through pollination so quickly that the improving weather may come a little late to give the crop the best production potential,” says Lerner. “Soybeans may have a better chance to utilize and benefit from a little more rain in July and August even if the moisture profile does not get fixed and some level of drought remains.” 

As El Nino continues to have more of an influence, Lerner says history shows better chances of rainfall to arrive at a less than ideal time for farmers: during harvest.

“By the way, the increasing rainfall over time in those two years led to a wet September – for whatever that may be worth,” Lerner adds.

Weather continues to be a trending topic this year. Follow more AgWeb coverage of the 2023 drought.