Fed Prices Leading Cattle Markets to Record Levels

Cash fed cattle prices hit new record highs last week.
Cash fed cattle prices hit new record highs last week.
(CAB)

The daily 5-Market negotiated cash fed cattle price reported on Thursday, April 6, 2023, by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, was $172.33/cwt., a new record daily fed cattle price.  This was followed on Friday with a price of $175.87/cwt.  The previous record daily price was $172.08/cwt. on November 26, 2014. 

Where do fed prices go from here?  In a steady market, fed prices would typically peak seasonally about now and move lower through the third quarter before increasing to the end of the year.  This sort of typical pattern is currently priced into the Live Futures with futures prices decreasing from the nearby April (currently just over $171/cwt.) to June (about $163/cwt.) and August ($162/cwt.) before increasing in the October contract ($166/cwt.) and December ($171/cwt.).  At this time, Live Futures prices do not exceed nearby levels until the February 2024 contract (currently $174/cwt.). 

Will fed prices follow this typical seasonal pattern this year?  Figure 1 suggests maybe not.  In 2021 and 2022, the strong uptrend in fed prices offset seasonal tendencies, with prices moving continually higher.  There is good reason to expect the uptrend to continue in 2023. The seasonality priced into the markets now may fade as markets trend higher going forward. 

 Feedlot inventories are just beginning to fall with ever tighter feeder cattle supplies and are likely to continue decreasing at least through 2023, pushing fed prices higher.  Fed prices may increase more slowly or plateau briefly in the summer months but are not likely to have a typical seasonal decline going forward.     Fed prices

Feeder cattle prices have not yet reached record levels but are advancing to surpass previous price peaks.  Oklahoma combined auction prices for 500–550-pound, Medium/Large No. 1 steer prices for the week ending April 7 were $251.41/cwt., the highest price since August 2015.  The record price for this weight group was $306.42/cwt. on December 12, 2014.  For the heavier feeder cattle, 800-850-pound steer prices averaged $189.53/cwt., the highest price since October 23, 2015.  The highest previous price for these steers was $238.87/cwt. on October 10, 2014.  Feeder cattle prices are currently about 80 percent of the record price levels in late 2014 and will undoubtedly exceed previous high prices at some point in the coming months.    

 

 

Latest News

Biden Administration Restores Wildlife Protections
Biden Administration Restores Wildlife Protections

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service plans to reinstate rules protecting endangered plants and animals, action that would reverse changes made during the Trump Administration that weakened the Endangered Species Act.

Across Breed EPD Adjustment Factors
Across Breed EPD Adjustment Factors

EPDs from multiple breeds can be compared by adding/subtracting the appropriate adjustment factors to the EPDs resulting from the most recent genetic evaluations for each of 18 breeds.

APHIS Now Thinks Wild Birds Are to Blame for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza's Arrival on Four U.S. Dairies
APHIS Now Thinks Wild Birds Are to Blame for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza's Arrival on Four U.S. Dairies

The livestock industry continues to grapple with the first confirmed cases of HPAI in cattle, while federal and state agencies continue to assure consumers there's no concern about the safety of the U.S. milk supply.

Skills Survey Reveals U.S. Agriculture & Food Industry Workforce Needs and Gaps
Skills Survey Reveals U.S. Agriculture & Food Industry Workforce Needs and Gaps

U.S. employers report challenges in finding suitable job candidates with work-ready skills to fill open roles in ag. The AgCareers.com U.S. Skills Survey offers insights, data and trends to address skill development.

USDA Authorizes CRP Graze and Hay Donations to Wildfire Victims
USDA Authorizes CRP Graze and Hay Donations to Wildfire Victims

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) participants can donate emergency grazing authority to ranchers in Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas impacted by recent wildfires.

New Guide Helps Producers Maximize Values of Cull Cows
New Guide Helps Producers Maximize Values of Cull Cows

A new resource developed by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and CattleFax helps cattle producers maximize profitability from their culling decisions.