Factors That Will Shape the 2023 Farm Bill
A window inside the 2023 Farm Bill was opened last week at the Ag and Food Policy Summit.
With Ukraine and Russia at war in the midst of a world moving away from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a lot to consider in the 2023 Farm Bill. Industry experts weighed-in to share their predictions.
Can We Meet Our Objectives?
The coming Farm Bill must be heavily rooted in conservation and climate change to gain the seal of approval from both the House and Senate, according to Randy Russell, president of The Russell Group.
“When the cap-and-trade program was proposed in 2009, that was the government mandating reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. Thankfully, that didn’t pass,” says Russell. “We’re trying to flip climate on its head and make it a revenue generator for production ag, rather than a cost. We’re trying to ensure we’re a key part of the climate solution.”
Of CRP, the 2018 Farm Bill outlined 27 million acres be considered for the program to fight climate change. Chuck Conner, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC) CEO, recognizes USDA’s CRP goal has switched from increasing CRP acres to making sure acres aren’t lost out of the program.
“I believe we could go down as low as 22 million acres given the current CRP contracts that are expiring,” he says. “Personally, I hope that doesn’t happen. There are environmental benefits that would be lost with that few of acres.”
Russell believes USDA “woefully” underfunds ag research, citing the need for continued biological advancements if the U.S. intends to reach its climate objectives.
Kathryn Unger, vice president of North America government relations at Cargill, says it’s not only research that will turn the climate tides, but also training to implement research. She says research will “do no good” if it sits idle.
Count the Votes, Not the Seats
The Congressional Budget Office recorded $867 billion was dedicated to the 2018 Farm Bill. While 76% of that $867 billion was allocated to the U.S. nutrition program, only 9% and 7% were given to conservation and farm programs, respectively.
Russell feels there is a tug-o-war that plays out between nutrition, anti-hunger and farm groups when it comes to literature in any Farm Bill that demands bipartisanship.
“There are Democratic members of the House and Senate who have prided themselves on never having voted for a Farm Bill, and there are Republican members of the House and Senate who feel the same,” Conner says. “Mathematically, to get a Farm Bill passed, bipartisanship has to be No. 1.”
History shows Farm Bill collaboration isn’t impossible, according to Russell. He says Senators Dick Lugar (R-IN) and Pat Leahy (D-VT) held “polar opposite” political perspectives at a time when bipartisanship was maintained in the Senate. Both Lugar and Leahy were able to find compromise in previous Farm Bills, and Russell is hoping the 2023 Farm Bill will yield the same results.
Take a Note From Your History Book
It’s no secret commodity prices have been dramatically higher since the turn of the calendar year. Conner says the parallels between today’s market climate and the 1995/96 Farm Bill market climate has led people to believe we’re on track for an evolutionary Farm Bill, but he’s not convinced.
“I think all the uncertainty in the markets is going to drive us more towards a Farm Bill where a little bit of every topic is on the table—where we’re fundamentally considering market uncertainty, trade uncertainty and input price uncertainty,” he says. “We’re in this environment of teetering between evolution and revolution that I think will be a real challenge.”
Russell also recalls the market fluctuations during the draft of the 1995/96 Farm Bill we’re eerily similar to today’s market volatility, and we should be taking a note from our history books.
“When we run a Farm Bill in these high price environments, the Congressional Budget office will just assume that these prices are going to stay at that high level for quite a while—that’s not how supply and demand works,” says Russell. “As our Founder and Former Secretary of Agriculture Dick Lyng used to say, ‘When prices get high enough, roosters lay eggs.’”
Farm Bill 2023 discussions began on The Hill this week, with the House Ag subcommittee looking at horticulture and urban agriculture on Tuesday.
More on Farm Bill 2023:
> Setting the Farm Bill Stage
> Initial House Ag Farm Bill Hearing on Conservation Programs Provides Glimpse into Potential Battles
