Three Big Weather Factors Loom for 2022 Crop Season
One farmer’s blessed rain is another’s drought. Weather is the mercurial mistress of agriculture and the 2022 crop season outlook may be on track for collision with three significant weather-related factors—each a boon or a block.
Specifically, the weather threesome is comprised by drought in Brazil, drought in the Plains, and the telltale big reveal of ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. All three factors may play a role in how U.S. growers fare in 2022, according to Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, speaking at Top Producer Summit in Nashville, Tenn., on Feb. 16.
Rise and Risk
Brazil’s soybean yield trend matches the United States’ upward trend since the 1970s, but overall Brazilian soybean production dwarfs the U.S., with a stunning increase every year matching the entire output of Kansas.
The breadbasket region of Brazilian soybean farming is Matto Grasso, an area churning out soybeans at a stunning rate—think Illinois and Iowa times a factor of 10, according to Snodgrass. However, Brazil (and Argentina) is locked in a drought capable of upending production numbers and influencing market scales.
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Additionally, drought is currently holding sway in the U.S. As of mid-February, 72% of the U.S. is in at least a minimal stage of drought, the highest percentage since 2012. “There are concerns over drought developing in Midwest,” says Snodgrass, “and concerns over five separate dust storms coming out of Southern Plains, what that means going forward.”
Each year, regardless of winter conditions, the Midwest historically faces a 30% chance of drought. “However, in 2022, the chance of drought is 38%, and that could rise in a big way,” Snodgrass says.
The potential “rise” is drought outcomes is connected to water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. “The only variable that has statistical correlation beyond three months is ocean temperatures. Ocean temperatures are a symptom of the behavior of the atmosphere.”
In a nutshell, if the cold water presently in the Gulf of Alaska expands south to California by June 1, the 38% risk of drought in the middle of the U.S. goes to 60%. Conversely, if the cold water currently in the Gulf of Alaska warms over the next three months, the risk to summer drought in the Midwest drops considerably, yet the risk to drought in the western U.S. rises, according to Snodgrass.
Again, the three biggest weather players set to impact the 2022 crop season, according to Snodgrass: “No. 1 is drought in Brazil. No. 2 is drought in the Plains. No. 3 is ocean temperatures in the Pacific.”
Watch Snograss' full presentation from Nashville in the Online Top Producer Summit is set for Feb. 22-23 and will include live, on-demand and recorded sessions from the event in Nashville. Register now!
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