Optimism Builds in U.S. Meat Exports to China

While optimism for U.S. red meat exports to China builds in the long-term, bumpy months may be ahead in the short term.

“China's easing of many COVID restrictions is tremendous news for red meat demand, but it will take some time for restaurants and retail outlets to see a bounce from these changes,” says John Herath, communications director for the U.S. Meat Export Federation. 

Restrictions are being lifted during a time of a new surge of COVID cases in the country. Joel Haggard, USMEF senior vice president for the Asia Pacific, notes that the surge is to be expected as a very small percentage of the population has had COVID and overall natural immunity is low.

In this post-lockdown era, China’s consumers will likely begin venturing out, especially with the upcoming Chinese New Year. Haggard notes, “Overall, the direction is positive, but it's going to be bumpy over the next couple of months. We can already see that in cities like Beijing and Wong Jo, probably within a couple of weeks, they will have hit a peak. And so how this plays out to the economies is still very difficult to predict.”

U.S. beef exports to China have been stellar so far this year, Haggard says, and will likely be a record year. Through Oct. 2022, U.S. beef export value to China is up 50% year-over-year to just under $2 billion. Additionally, pork exports to China are lower year-over-year but have regained momentum in the second half of 2022.

China has been building inventory of all imported beef due to the poor retail environment over the past couple months that has hindered movement of the product. However, the return of hotel and restaurant business is becoming more of a reality.

“Things are still uncertain as I as I mentioned before, but I think there's optimism about next year, simply because many of these restrictions are being lifted,” Haggard says. “There's a good chance that international travel will resume, maybe quarantine free, maybe in the early part of the year.”