Cattle Outlook: June Beef Cold Storage Down from a Year Ago

BT_USDA_Beef_Meat_Packer_3
BT_USDA_Beef_Meat_Packer_3

By: Ron Plain and Scott Brown, University of Missouri

There were 451 million pounds of beef in cold storage at the end of June. That was up 1.2% from the month before, but down 4.9% from a year ago. June was the fifth consecutive month with stocks of frozen beef below the year ago level.

The U.S. economy grew only 1.2% during the second quarter according to the U.S. Commerce Department. They revised down their estimates of growth during the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 to 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. These numbers decrease the odds of the Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates anytime soon. Growth this slow is not good for meat demand. The restaurant performance index was down in June for the second consecutive month.

USDA weekly crop progress report said that 15% of U.S. pastures were in poor or very poor condition as of July 24. That is up 1 point from the week before and 3 points higher than a year ago.

After three weeks of price decline, this week fed cattle prices were mixed in very light volume. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $118.00/cwt, up $3.35 from last week's average, but down $27.22 from a year ago. The 5-area dressed steer price averaged $184.09/cwt, down 74 cents from the week before and down $45.13 from a year ago.

This morning, the choice boxed beef cutout value was $197.91/cwt, down $2.45 from the previous Friday and down $11.95 from three weeks ago. The select carcass cutout this morning was $189.86/cwt, down 10 cents from last week. The choice-select spread, $8.05/cwt this morning, the smallest since the last week of February.

This week's cattle slaughter totaled 581,000 head, down 2.4% from last week, but up 9.2% from a year ago. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on July 16 was 880 pounds, up 5 pounds from the week before, down 4 pounds from a year ago, and below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive week.

Feeder cattle prices at Oklahoma City were generally $1 to $3 higher this week. Stocker calves were lightly tested. Prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450# $163.50-$179, 450-500# $161-$164, 500-550# $154-$165, 550-600# $148-$166, 600-650# $139-$155, 650-700# $145-$155.50, 700-750# $144.50-$152, 750-800# $138.50-$152.75, 800-900# $132-$140.75 and 900-1000# $126.50-$133.50/cwt.

The July Cattle on Feed report found lower placements during June than expected and that gave a boost to cattle futures this week. The August live cattle futures contract settled at $113.07/cwt today, up $3.12 for the week. October fed cattle settled at $111.72/cwt, up $3.65 from the previous Friday.

August feeder cattle futures ended the week at $140.05/cwt, up $2.85 from a week earlier. October feeder cattle closed the week up $2.75 at $138.57/cwt.

 

Latest News

Biden Administration Restores Wildlife Protections
Biden Administration Restores Wildlife Protections

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service plans to reinstate rules protecting endangered plants and animals, action that would reverse changes made during the Trump Administration that weakened the Endangered Species Act.

Across Breed EPD Adjustment Factors
Across Breed EPD Adjustment Factors

EPDs from multiple breeds can be compared by adding/subtracting the appropriate adjustment factors to the EPDs resulting from the most recent genetic evaluations for each of 18 breeds.

APHIS Now Thinks Wild Birds Are to Blame for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza's Arrival on Four U.S. Dairies
APHIS Now Thinks Wild Birds Are to Blame for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza's Arrival on Four U.S. Dairies

The livestock industry continues to grapple with the first confirmed cases of HPAI in cattle, while federal and state agencies continue to assure consumers there's no concern about the safety of the U.S. milk supply.

Skills Survey Reveals U.S. Agriculture & Food Industry Workforce Needs and Gaps
Skills Survey Reveals U.S. Agriculture & Food Industry Workforce Needs and Gaps

U.S. employers report challenges in finding suitable job candidates with work-ready skills to fill open roles in ag. The AgCareers.com U.S. Skills Survey offers insights, data and trends to address skill development.

USDA Authorizes CRP Graze and Hay Donations to Wildfire Victims
USDA Authorizes CRP Graze and Hay Donations to Wildfire Victims

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) participants can donate emergency grazing authority to ranchers in Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas impacted by recent wildfires.

New Guide Helps Producers Maximize Values of Cull Cows
New Guide Helps Producers Maximize Values of Cull Cows

A new resource developed by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and CattleFax helps cattle producers maximize profitability from their culling decisions.