First Thing Today: Crop Expectations Still Rising in Brazil

Quiet price action overnight... Corn futures are steady to fractionally lower as of 6:30 a.m. CT. Soybean futures are up 1 to 3 cents. SRW wheat futures are fractionally lower, while HRW and HRS wheat are posting similar gains. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher, while crude oil futures are chopping around unchanged.

Poll signals crop expectations still rising in Brazil... A Reuters poll of analysts shows they expect Brazil's soybean crop to total 110.8 MMT, up 4.0 MMT from a similar poll conducted in March. Those surveyed also expect the country's total corn crop to hit a record of 93.2 MMT, up 2.7 MMT from March.

Wage protests at Argentina's Rosario port... Port workers at Argentina's main Rosario grains hub will hold flash protests and block gates in the weeks ahead as they push for a 40% increase in wages, Edgardo Quiroga, a local representative of the CGT labor union, told Reuters yesterday. He detailed that the port will hold these strikes for one or two days a week until the end of the month. The official also said that the exact times and locations would not be announced ahead of time. Such disruptions are not unusual in Argentina, but the situation bears watching.

Stats Canada planting intentions data out today... Canadian wheat farmers will likely report they plan to plant 22.4 million acres to wheat in 2017-18, a 3.5% drop from the year prior and the lowest level in six years. On the other hand, canola planting intentions are expected to be the second highest on record at 21.3 million acres, which would be a gain of 4.6% from year-ago.

Logistic problems curb Australia's wheat exports... Australia's 2017-18 wheat crop will likely total 24 MMT, says a USDA ag attaché in the country. This would be down notably from 2016-17's record 35 MMT crop. But while the crop was record-large this year, wheat has encountered a "range of transport and logistical problems." Therefore, the post lowered its 2016-17 export forecast for wheat to 23 MMT, which is 2 MMT below USDA's official projection. Looking ahead to 2017-18, the attaché expects wheat exports to total 18 MMT, down sharply from the year prior due to "lower production, the continued strong Australian dollar and possible continued shipping delays."

France needs rain soon... Dryness is increasingly a concern in France, the European Union's top grain producer. Cool weather did slow the wheat crop's growth this week, reducing its water needs. But Michel Portier, head of the consultancy Agritel, says "If it does not rain in the coming weeks, the consequences on yields will be major." Crop watchers have recently pegged France's wheat crop in the 37 MMT to 38 MMT, well above last year's 28 MMT crop, which was its lowest in 30 years due to excess moisture. Today FranceAgriMer estimated that 85% of the country's soft wheat crop was in good to excellent condition as of April 17, down four percentage points from week-ago.

Cotton AWP rises; special import quota announced... The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton rose to 68.97 cents per pound effective today, according to USDA. The rise ends two weeks of declines in the AWP and marks four of the last six weeks where the AWP has been 68 cents per pound or more. USDA also announced special import quota #26 for upland cotton will be established April 27, 2017, allowing importation of 13,588,518 kilograms (62,411 bales) of upland cotton and will apply to upland cotton purchased not later than July 25, 2017, and entered into the U.S. not later than Oct. 23, 2017.

Placements and marketings expected to be up from year-ago levels... Traders expect USDA's Cattle on Feed Report to show the number of cattle on feed as of April 1 at around 10.822 million head, which would be down 0.3% from year-ago levels. Placements and marketings are both expected to be up notably -- 6.5% and 9.4%, respectively -- from year-ago levels. We will have a report reaction online and in "Evening Report."

June live cattle well below cash, but futures overbought... Some additional cash cattle trade took place yesterday in the $130 to $133 range where action kicked off Wednesday. April live cattle are just below the low end of this range, while the June contract is roughly $13.50 below that level. But with quite a while remaining until that contract expires and the nine-day Relative Strength Index showing the contract is overbought, traders may be in no hurry to further narrow the discount.

Cash and pork movement continue to give traders little reason to be buyers... Cash hog prices have marched steadily lower since peaking in late February, which has weighed heavily on the lean hog market. Futures have been tracking alongside the cash hog index, but spring contracts are in oversold territory, signaling a corrective rebound is overdue. But light pork movement of late with product prices holding near unchanged for the week does little to inspire buying.

Overnight demand news... Turkey tendered to buy up to 44,000 MT of corn from the European Union and Moldova. South Korea bought around 60,000 MT of corn from optional origins.

Today's reports:

• 7:30 a.m., Canadian Principal Field Crop Area -- StatsCan
• 2:00 p.m., Cattle on Feed -- NASS
• 2:00 p.m., Chickens and Eggs -- NASS