Market Reports

CAB Insider: May 20

Thu, 21 May 2026 12:00:02 GMT

The run-up in fed cattle prices over the past four weeks has been impressive with a $16.67/cwt. live steer inflationary trend culminating in last week’s $262.85/cwt. steer price.

Federally inspected harvest head counts have also improved to fulfill larger boxed beef sales commitments on spring grilling and holiday demand. The past three weeks have averaged 532,000 head weekly counts compared to the 516,000 head average in the prior three weeks.

The steep upward price trajectory in the fed cattle market remains wholly supported on fed cattle remaining in tight supply and the tight grasp of cattle feeders keeping feedlot stays and carcass weights elevated. Weights continue to underpin beef production tonnage, cutting the harvest pace deficit for fed cattle.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Cash cattle values have run higher with no support from boxed beef prices as the Comprehensive cutout has been relatively stagnant for the past six weeks — after pulling back from the March highs. Wholesale prices are expected to adjust higher into June, in keeping with previous seasonal trends, but this has yet to develop.

June live cattle futures remain a deep discount to cash, trading at a $10.95/cwt. below the latest cash prices as of Wednesday morning. At this point in May, plenty of time remains for the June contract to converge with cash.

Forward contract feeder calf video sales have kicked off this week with a portion of producers pulling the trigger earlier than normal, capitalizing on the current market and offsetting risk. Fall delivery calf prices are showing breakevens calculated against the current record-high cash fed cattle market. CME Live Cattle contracts for next spring are nearly $30/cwt. behind today’s cash; this suggests that buyers are both “betting on the come” and planning to add significant cheap gains to back up total cost.

More on Price Spreads

In April we discussed the notable shift in the spring Choice-Select price spread as the Choice premium dropped to nearly $0.00/cwt. in spot market pricing. The trend has extended into May with the spread remaining well below $5/cwt. with numerous excursions with the Select cutout becoming premium to Choice.

Market analysts have appropriately focused on the rapid decline in Select carcasses, dropping from 12% of the fed cattle mix in December to average just 8% since February. This historically small Select share has created a scarcity in the category compared to the lower 1/3 Choice price, which is literally what’s left in the Choice box after Premium Choice brands, like Certified Angus Beef, have been marked up for a premium end point.

(Certified Angus Beef)

When considering the higher Select value, this year’s exceptionally small cull cow harvest is also important domestic ground beef demand is quite strong, with more than half of beef consumption in this category. The chart shows the relationship of the Choice-Select spread with weekly cull cow harvest since 2010. It’s clear that the cyclical trend of cow harvest has been closely aligned with the fluctuations in the Choice-Select price relationship. As cow harvest declines the value of lean, Select end meats increases as those cuts become attractively priced in relation to lean cow cuts. It’s a simple substitution effect as 90% lean trim inflates in value under supply constraints.

The second chart depicts the relationship of Select carcass supplies versus imported beef. Since the majority of imported beef is lean trim, destined to be ground a blended with 50% domestic lean trim, there is a clear relationship. As Select carcass supplies have declined, the imported tonnage has increased to replace tonnage while the market seeks to maintain balance in lean beef supply. Adding in domestic cull cow supplies to this chart would further illustrate how all three sources of lean beef volumes adjust to supply a relatively steady volume of ground beef for domestic consumption.

(Certified Angus Beef)

In contrast to the lean beef discussion, Certified Angus Beef brand cutout values have performed within expectations so far in 2026. The CAB cutout has averaged $17.63/cwt. above USDA Choice since January, just $0.90/cwt. lower than the same period last year.

CAB Insider: April 29

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 23:14:17 GMT

Fed cattle prices moderated slightly in last week’s trade with a $2/cwt. decline to average $246/cwt., just off the record high observed two weeks ago.

Last week’s 529,000 harvested total appears robust in a season when an erratic pattern of weekly head counts has bounced between 502,000 and 529,000 since mid-March. No doubt, worsening packer margins have been the overriding theme — intertwined with the temporary JBS Greeley, Colo., plant shutdown — through this time frame.

(Certified Angus Beef)

In reviewing total federally inspected harvest numbers, it’s important to factor in the normal seasonal decline in cull cow harvest during the spring. This year, the cull dairy cow harvest has declined from 60,000 head per week to 50,000 per week (-16%) from mid-February through early April. In the same period, cull beef cows have pulled back from 40,000 head to about 36,000 head (-10%) weekly. The confirmed year-to-date total cow harvest is down 4.6% compared to last year, whereas the fed steer and heifer total is down 8.8%.

The month of April closes out with a bang as live cattle futures set new record highs. With one day left on the contract, April live cattle traded at $256.35/cwt. by noon Wednesday. New highs will be recorded this week in the spot market as well, with Tuesday’s fed cattle business primarily conducted at $255/cwt., a $9/cwt. leap since Friday.

On the boxed beef side of the ledger, the market has recently eased lower in expected seasonal fashion from March through April. As the calendar turns to May, the smaller fed cattle harvest volume has turned a bit higher, driven by increasing end-user volume needs. Even so, market anticipation is that spot beef demand will get a boost from overall tighter supplies and continued consumer demand.

Beef Month Anticipation

May is “Beef Month,” and many in the supply chain are anxious to see what this important season has in store for cattle and beef values. So far in 2026, consumers have shown strong support for the most preferred protein in the market. Yet higher cutout values may test demand as higher gasoline prices and weakening consumer sentiment raise caution.

A look at wholesale prices indicates that demand for middle meat — steak — remains seasonally mixed, with CAB ribeyes recently priced at $11.80/lb., 14% cheaper than a year ago and 7% cheaper than a month ago. A strong weakening in the rib price trend in April is not uncommon, as three of the last five years saw a similar downtrend, while 2021 and 2025 featured a rapidly increasing rib market. A conservative estimate suggests wholesale ribeyes could rise above $14/lb. by June, adding nearly $40 of value per carcass.

Tenderloin demand typically increases modestly ahead of Mother’s Day, with just a 14% increase from February seasonal lows to early May. This year has featured a 4.5% softening of wholesale CAB tenderloin prices for the season since early March.

Strip loins are the classic “in demand” steak cut for spring, with a 26% price increase dating back to Jan. 1 through June over the past five years. This year’s price pattern is developing near expectations, with a recent 6% pullback from the March high. There is plenty of room for strip loin prices to increase 15% by late June.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Shifting focus to the lower-priced steak options shows strong recent demand for these cuts. CAB top sirloin butts had a massive price run in the first quarter, with a 22% increase into mid-March. This uncharacteristic early demand has since corrected lower, but historic sirloin price patterns suggest a potential 15% wholesale increase by mid-June.

The loin complex is currently boosted by chart-topping ball tips, priced at an amazing 50% increase over a year ago and a stout 44% higher than early February. This popular item for Cinco de Mayo typically gets a small seasonal increase ahead of the early May holiday. This year’s unexpectedly high demand suggests broader use of the cheaper cut, even as the current $6.67/lb. wholesale average nears its record high of $6.90/lb. touched briefly during the pandemic shutdowns. Also from the loin primal, CAB tri-tips are recently 31% pricier than a year ago, steadily higher within seasonal expectations. In keeping with other loin items, tri-tip prices are historically expected to increase by another 23% through June.

Briskets, flanks and plates combine to make up just 15.5% of total carcass weight. Unfortunate, given that these lighter primals are seeing some of the stoutest demand, marked by major price increases, of any beef cuts. The average price increase across the three is 38% over a year ago, while the total CAB cutout price is just 15% over a year ago.

Carcass cutout values show a promising setup with plenty of room to run higher over the next 60 days. Underpinned by ground beef prices, grilling demand should pull not only ribeye and strip loin prices higher, but also a handful of value steak items, which will likely gain attention as consumers budget their beef buying. Anticipated spot market demand growth will be important to keep processing margins moving in the right direction as fed cattle costs mark new record highs.

CAB Insider: April 15

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:24:23 GMT

The fed cattle market has been on an exceptionally bullish trend for the past two weeks. As if the wildly aggressive $10/cwt. price increase two weeks ago wasn’t enough, last week’s trade featured yet another $3/cwt. jump to the amazement of most market participants.

CME Live Cattle contract values led last week’s optimism, emboldening cattle feeders to hold a firmer asking price despite the major upswing the week prior. The week’s resulting $248.68/cwt. steer price was highlighted at the top end of the range with $252/cwt. quotes in the northern feeding region.

This week’s market promises to hold further strength as April Live Cattle contracts were valued at $252/cwt. Wednesday morning. Small cash trade volume had already been recorded at $248/cwt. live with additional $390/cwt. dressed on Tuesday.

The strong cattle market has run counter to wholesale boxed beef cutout values, as this week started on a lower-price trend, with Choice boxes down $10/cwt. on Urner Barry’s quote and $5/cwt. on USDA’s report.

(Certified Angus Beef)

The resumption of processing at JBS’ Greeley, Colo., plant last Tuesday held promise for those looking for a larger national fed cattle harvest for the week. Reality set in by week’s end as packers collectively pulled the federally inspected total head count lower to 512,000 head, down 4%, with a fed cattle total of 414,000 head, down 3%. Packer margins have raced backward from decently positive to roughly $200/head negative in the past few weeks.

Spring holidays are lined up in the near future, with increased seasonal volume set to keep the supply chain on edge, as fulfilling large retail volumes requires larger headcounts. Beef demand appears to remain healthy, and a mid-April downturn in cutout values is not uncommon. Last year’s Choice cutout ran up 18% from April 15 through the end of June. Cutout values are 12% to 15% higher than a year ago.

The Marbling Milestone: A Deep Dive into Carcass Grading

The nation’s carcass marbling achievement has never been richer, as USDA data reports the latest record-high USDA Prime share at 15.55% of fed cattle. Year to date, the Prime grade has recorded weekly values of 14% or higher. With USDA Choice giving incremental ground to the growing Prime category, the two grades combine to chart a record 88.1% for the first quarter. In contrast, USDA Select carcasses comprised a new record-low 8% of fed carcasses during March.

Historic highs in marbling outcomes logically suggest that the Certified Angus Beef brand would similarly capture record volumes of Angus-type carcasses, given the brand’s focus on quality and its Modest 00 (Premium Choice) or higher marbling requirement. The importance of marbling among the brand’s 10 carcass specifications can’t be overstated. Several million Angus-type carcasses (often more than 2 million annually) have been evaluated using detailed data since 2012, revealing that 82% to 95% of carcasses failing to meet brand requirements did so due to insufficient marbling. Consequently, the greatest opportunity for improvement or failure in CAB certification rates lies within the marbling specification.

However, in the midst of record-high nationwide marbling outcomes, the brand’s certification rate in March fell to 37% of eligible carcasses — less than impressive in contrast to 41.8% in March 2025. As confusing as this seems, current feedlot economics tell the rest of the story. Cheap corn, increased days on feed and temperate feeding weather combined to push average carcass weights to new heights in March. Twenty-pound leaps in year-over-year weight increases have been a hallmark of the past two years. But the trend since December has held weights to a higher plane than ever. This means that average steer carcasses in the 980-plus lb. range yield a record proportion surpassing the brand’s 1,100-lb. upper limit. Our 2025 annual data review indicated that, of the eligible carcasses failing to meet brand standards, 14.5% of the cause was due to carcasses exceeding 1,100 lb., a significant increase from 8.6% in 2024. It’s a safe bet that this carcass weight fallout rate was higher than 14.5% in the first quarter this year, given that steer weights have not dropped below 981 lb., year to date.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Longer feedlot stays have also generated a steady increase in external carcass fat in recent years. This was highlighted by the 2025 uptick to 9.8% of certification failures in the dataset exceeding the maximum allowable 1-inch backfat thickness. Fallout from excess backfat was basically unchanged, in the 7-8% range, from 2022 to 2024, but will likely be reported higher again in 2026 if first-quarter finished weights are any indication.

In March 2025, the brand adjusted the upper limit for ribeye area from 16 to 17 sq. inches. The move aligned with the evolving cattle supply and resulted in cutting the brand’s fallout rate due to oversized ribeyes in half in the 2025 analysis.

Feedlot economics continue to reward heavier weights, urging cattle feeders to add days as they try to offset the high cost of feeder cattle with a favorable cost of gain. This has yielded unprecedented Prime carcass percentages in grid payment summaries, while simultaneously pressuring CAB carcass acceptance in the last two months. Despite these recent challenges, marbling remains the driver in the brand’s ability to add value to a greater proportion of Angus-type cattle.

CAB Insider: April 1

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:22:31 GMT

The fed cattle market has traded in a steady range around $235/cwt. live and $372/cwt. dressed in the past two weeks, roughly $10/cwt. lower than the late February high on a live basis.

The post-report adjustment to the harvested head count two weeks ago pulled that week’s total to a paltry 503,000 head. Last week’s recovery to 520,000 returned the harvested throughput to the lower end of the range seen in the previous four weeks, with an average of 524,000 head per week for the period.

The JBS Greeley, Colo., plant remains closed for the third week now due to labor stoppages at that facility. This, combined with the general tightening of packer throughput, continues to impede harvest volume.

Meanwhile, feedyard cattle inventory currentness appears to be slipping further as combined steer and heifer carcass weights marked a new record high in the latest USDA report for the week of March 8. Steer weights matched their previous high, recorded in December at 989 lb. each, while heifers surpassed their December heaviest weight by 3 lb. to reach 903 lb. apiece.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Weighted average carcass weights for steers and heifers calculate to 955 lb., 43 lb. heavier than the same week last year. The added weight-per-head on 420,000 head of weekly fed cattle harvested is equivalent to an additional 18,900 head. More astonishingly, the latest weights are 67 lb. heavier than those from two years ago, equivalent to an additional 29,500 head at the recent harvest pace.

Carcass cutout values adjusted slightly lower over the past two weeks following an exceptional first-quarter run-up, during which the USDA Comprehensive cutout value increased 12.7% since Jan. 1. The Comprehensive cutout, describing all grades for all delivery periods, reached $400/cwt. in mid-March, a tremendous 21% increase over the same week a year ago. A small correction is certainly understandable at the beginning of April, immediately before Good Friday and Easter holidays. However, packers do have some pricing power to leverage with their wholesale customers at these reduced harvest head counts.

Spring Cutout Confusion

Seasonal shifts historically bring the year’s highest-quality, marbling-rich carcasses to packing plants in March. This phenomenon is often attributed to the finished cattle supply in this period being denser with yearlings than with calf-fed cattle, compared to other seasons.

Specific to March 2026, the share of USDA Select carcasses in packers’ coolers was disproportionally small. The beef sector’s rapid advance toward a 15% USDA Prime grade average in March came at the expense of Select, which dipped to a record-low 7.9% of the offering. This stands in stark contrast to the 12% Select gradeout in March 2025. Meanwhile, the Choice category remained unchanged this March at 73% of the mix, just as it was a year ago.

Last week, the USDA reported the Choice cutout dipping to a $5/cwt. discount to Select. Inversions of the Choice-Select spread, while extremely uncommon, tend to occur in the first quarter, when carcass quality grades are near their annual peak and spot market demand for the grilling season has yet to hit full stride.

(Certified Angus Beef)

There are end-users in the market, such as the institutional sector, that maintain a standing order specifically for the USDA Select product. This price-driven customer capitalized on an average $15/cwt. discount to Choice in the past two years. The recent shift to much tighter Select carcass supplies has narrowed the price gap, even momentarily inverting the Choice-Select spread due to the scarcity of Select carcasses.

Current quality grade trends are subject to seasonal change, but the long-term outlook suggests that the combination of genetics and management will continue to yield higher-quality carcass outcomes. Beef wholesalers are advising their traditionally Select-focused customers to move up to low Choice, given the evolution of the grade mix to a higher plane.

Product labeled simply as USDA Choice has increasingly been defined by carcasses that fall within the lower 1/3 of the Choice grade. This is due to overwhelming demand for Premium Choice-branded products, such as the Certified Angus Beef brand. Consequently, what’s left in the USDA Choice box looks much nearer to the marbling found in USDA Select than ever before.

CAB Insider: March 18

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:07:16 GMT

Cash fed cattle values have been under pressure from several factors over the past two weeks. The Iranian conflict began overshadowing equity markets earlier this month, while that general market uncertainty spilled over to Live Cattle futures, negatively impacting cash values.

Just as importantly, continuation of smaller weekly cattle harvest volumes have given packers a measure of pricing power over feedyards for the period. Finally, the strike at the JBS-Greeley packing facility, initiated last week, is a headwind in the region as JBS redirects cattle to its other plants. These combined factors have seen prices retreat from $243/cwt. two weeks ago to last week’s $234/cwt. average. Despite this, Live Cattle futures posted gains Monday and Tuesday.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Carcass weights remain heavy, relenting just 8 lb. lower than the December record-high in the latest report. In the last five years, steer carcass weights have declined 16 lb. from the beginning of January through mid-March, on average. This year, steer weights have declined by only 4 lb. for the period. While 2026 fed cattle supplies are estimated to be the lowest in the cycle, it appears that the feedlot sector is, ironically, becoming less current on market-ready cattle inventory.

Carcass cutout values have followed the opposite trajectory to that of cattle, with last week’s sharp upticks adding punctuation to increases building in prior weeks. Beef demand continues to hold strong with the “All Fresh” retail beef price at a record $9.64/lb. in February. Price increases in March are in line with the seasonal trend, but the 30-cent-per-lb. rise from mid-February through last week is more pronounced than similar patterns in recent years. Undoubtedly, limited cattle harvest throughput and the onset of early spring beef demand have combined to spur the increase.

Quality Soaring Higher

The 2025 U.S. annual average share for Prime carcasses set a new high watermark at 11.9% of fed cattle. While not a formidable percentage compared to USDA Choice at 72% of the mix, growing supplies in the Prime category have been transformational for the beef industry. With Prime historically relegated to just 2-3% of total fed cattle supply, it began it’s rise in 2013 with incremental annual increases.

The contrast is starker by illustrating the change in Prime carcass tonnage over this short timeline. First, we must factor in carcass weights, which were 85 lb. heavier in 2025 than in 2012, the last year that Prime comprised a 3% or less share. The Prime production increase was not linear over this period, yet has made a convincing overall move, generating 263% increased carcass tonnage in 2025 compared to 2012.

As if this weren’t enough, the Prime category has soared at a renewed pace since last September. Beef stakeholders rightly assumed that the Prime grade would continue to perform, given the current weather and feeding sector economics. Yet, the pace of the increase has likely outpaced most guesses, as the Prime grade has not charted below 14% of the grade mix so far in 2026.

(Certified Angus Beef)

March tends to be the month with the richest marbling, as both CAB and Prime percentages peak at this time. The month started with a highlight well outside the trend, with USDA reporting that Nebraska packers averaged 24.3% Prime across their harvest in the first week of the month. The nearly 7% increase over the prior week is staggering enough to raise questions. However, with carcass weights remaining record-heavy for this time of year (32 lb. heavier than a year ago), one must embrace new possibilities.

Ultra-heavy carcasses and extended feeding days are a double-edged sword for the Certified Angus Beef brand. The richer marbling trend increases the share of eligible carcasses that meet the Modest 00 or higher requirement. Yet moderate slippage of carcasses above the 1,100 lb. maximum, plus a few with backfat above the 1-inch limit, are the most noted of the other specifications capping growth in brand acceptance rates currently.

Increased Prime carcass production is a boon to sales growth in this category for both Certified Angus Beef and the industry as a whole. A smaller Prime cutout premium above Choice also means greater adoption of this premium product tier by grocers and restaurants. All of the above lead to a firmer foothold for beef as the protein of choice for consumers.

CAB Insider: Feb. 25

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 13:10:27 GMT

The fed cattle market continued to show strength last week as negotiated trade developed very late on Friday. February Live Cattle futures traded near contract highs at $247/cwt. and small cash trade volume in the north centered on that price.

Extremely small harvest volume was the key element in last week’s market, sending a clear message that packer margins — near $300 per head in the red— have forced reductions on throughput. Granted, Monday’s President’s Day was a federal holiday, but this is negated as a consideration for harvest volume, as packer capacity for the week was sharply underutilized.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Friday’s Cattle on Feed report proved uneventful as analyst expectations were met with the number of cattle on feed in feedlots (with at least 1,000 head of capacity) at 98.2% of a year ago. January marketings look quite low at 87% of a year ago, but there was one fewer marketing day this January. With that said, a smaller cattle harvest is evident with year-to-date figures at -5.8%.

Carcass cutout values showed some life with slightly higher values last week on a steadily higher trajectory. Mixed price direction has recently been a theme across the major carcass primals. Firming demand for round cuts is the most notable trend in recent days, as utilization of lean, grinding beef is cropping up again. With spring spot market demand in the forward view, ribeye prices were a bit higher, but they are just trading off of their winter lows.- Wholesale strip loin prices have adjusted lower after making strong moves to the upside throughout January into early February.

Protein Price Spreads

The inflationary theme in the grocery sector is impossible to miss, as most Americans are faced with the buying a large share of their food at retail. Beef has been in the media crosshairs for months as retail prices have escalated. The “all fresh” retail beef price increased 10% from 2024 to 2025, with another 6% the prior year. Yet consumers have a choice in meeting their protein needs, and they continue to demand beef at an impressive level. In fact, beef demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 was record-high, according to analysts at Terrain.

A simpler approach is to realize that U.S. per capita beef consumption was nearly unchanged in 2025 at 58.4 lb., scarcely lower than the 59 lb. in 2024. Couple that with the 10% average annual retail price and one can quickly see that demand was robust.

Even more amazing: Beef has built a rapidly widening price gap over competing meats in the grocery store. This trend has become increasingly pronounced since the early 2000s, but as beef supplies have tightened over the past three years, the pace of the widening price disparity has accelerated.

During 2022, the peak of the cycle’s largest beef supplies, retail beef prices were 49% higher than pork and 200% higher than chicken. This is a large contrast to the 2025 average, with beef pricing 79% higher than pork and 260% higher than chicken. It’s important to note that beef retail prices rose rapidly throughout 2025 as the fourth quarter’s $9.44/lb. average was 13.8% higher than the first quarter average. Once again, the fourth quarter saw record beef demand despite rapidly escalating prices.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Market analysts point to evolving consumer attitudes toward meat as an important component of a healthy diet. The popularity of GLP-1 medications (with meat indicated as a healthy protein source) and the recent inversion of the USDA food pyramid are contributing factors. Consumers may be adapting to the nutrient density and wholesomeness of beef as they compare the return on their grocery dollar to less healthful food options.

It’s imperative to credit beef quality advancement in the consumer behavior discussion. The beef industry is offering consumers the most satisfying eating experience they’ve ever encountered, as the share of USDA Prime and Certified Angus Beef brand product continue to swell as a portion of fed cattle production. This leaves little doubt that marbling-rich carcasses are driving beef to outperform other protein sources in the meat case.

CAB Insider: Feb. 11

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 12:55:52 GMT

The fed cattle market has been steadily stronger since the first of the year, gaining $10/cwt. from the opening week’s $231/cwt. value through last week’s $241/cwt. average. This closely matches the early 2025 trend but has extended the pattern a week longer than that of a year ago with last week’s continuation higher.

The drastically smaller year-on-year cattle harvest is a significant factor differentiating 2025 and 2026. Since the beginning of the year, fed cattle harvest head counts have run roughly 10% smaller than a year ago. Tightened cattle supply and packer losses deeply in the red both continue to ration the harvest pace. Logic suggests no changes to throughput as long as both cattle and cutout prices work antagonistically against packer profitability.

(Certified Angus Beef)

A counterbalance to lighter harvest runs continues to rear its head in the form of heavy carcass weights. Latest data for the week of January 19 featured a 3 lb. uptick in steer weights to average 987 lb. each, just 2 lb. below the record marked in December. January weights will average near 30 lb. heavier than a year ago.

Weekly average cutout prices turned modestly lower in early February after the comprehensive cutout value increased 3.6% since the beginning of January. As demand turned to the ends of the carcass, significant discounting on middle meats was a theme last month. History suggests that the most preferred steak items have already posted seasonal low prices, with unseasonably warm weather in some regions coupled with expected early spring buying stimulating prices.

Utilization Key to Prime Success

Fed steer and heifer carcass quality is charting new territory in the first five weeks of the quarter. Record-heavy carcass weights, the longest feeding periods on record and generations of improved genetics continue to press carcass quality grades to new heights. This has generated an average 14.2% Prime carcasses in the fed cattle mix while Select carcasses average an unprecedented low at 9.7% of the total since January 1. This stands in stark contrast to the 10.7% Prime and 13.6% Select grade mix recorded for the same period a year ago.

As the carcass mix continues to press higher with richer quality grades, the expected impact to cutout prices has also come to fruition. The Prime cutout premium to Choice narrowed to $19/cwt. in January versus $59/cwt. a year ago and $37/cwt. in January 2024. This contrast indicates a wide range and directional change in the premium across three years.

However, the number of Prime carcasses in the past five weeks has been 21% greater than a year ago while carcass weights have also been 30 lb. heavier for the period.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Recent Prime demand models show 20% and greater year-over-year consumer demand increases for multiple months for the recent two years. Growing Prime supply has been met with growing demand, generally across the last decade. The recent added upswing in the Prime carcass supply suggests that expanded utilization of Prime-specific sales across the entire carcass is warranted. In the past couple of years packers have added a growing list of cuts to their sales sheets specific to their Prime-graded product. This is evident in Certified Angus Beef ^® brand sales as we have seen the most recent year’s sales growth in the CAB^® Prime category.

Further opportunity exists to capture consumer demand across the Prime carcass as evidenced by the most recent USDA carcass cutout value report. For the first week in February, USDA lists the Prime cutout premium to Choice at $16.94/cwt. for the entire carcass. Yet, practically all of the premium is found in the rib primal which features a $73.17/cwt. premium, and loin at $39.36/cwt. Briskets have often carried a larger premium than at present, but very adequate supplies have narrowed that premium to $3.13/cwt. While Prime premiums are increasingly being captured on some cuts on both ends of the carcass, chuck and round summary values show relatively small premium contributions, as do the flank and plate.

It’s important to note that more demand for individual Prime grade cuts is being discovered on the part of packers and wholesalers as they educate downstream users about the opportunities to capitalize on growing Prime demand. Emphasis on greater utilization of Prime and CAB Prime carcasses is key to recapturing larger Prime cutout premiums that get allocated throughout the supply chain. After all, the economic drivers fueling current carcass weights and extended feedlot stays may shift over time such that carcass quality takes a step back. Even if not, building demand through exceptional quality is the factor that has allowed beef to vastly outpace other protein options in the market.

CAB Insider: Jan. 28

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 13:05:27 GMT

Starting with the Martin Luther King holiday, the federally inspected cattle harvest suffered a big setback last week, with the total reflecting a 10,000-head deficit compared to the Tuesday-Thursday totals. The winter storm in the South is noted as a slaughter-reduction impact on Friday, but the head count was just a few thousand short of recent Friday production totals, reflecting 35-hour week schedules.

Tyson’s published intention to close the Lexington, Neb., plant and remove one shift from the Amarillo, Texas, plant by January 20 caused another shift in the supply chain.

In fed cattle prices: Last week’s values were slightly stronger, with the top end of reported prices in the $236/cwt. range. The February Live Cattle contract was valued at $235/cwt. early this week and consequently provides no directional guidance beyond current spot market news.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Compared to analyst expectations, last Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report held no surprises, as the Jan. 1 head count was 3.2% below a year ago. The ninth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in placements saw December placements 5.4% smaller than in December 2024. The larger December marketing number, 1.8% higher than a year ago, reflects an additional marketing day in the month but a net daily marketing volume smaller than a year ago.

Carcass cutout values have primarily increased in January, although last week’s average CAB cutout value is shown as a few dollars cheaper as the quality spreads narrowed. It should be noted that Urner Barry’s $9.78/cwt. Choice/Select spread is double that of USDA’s reported value for the week. This is due to nuances in how the two entities capture and have the data weighted in the weekly information.

Seasonal Demand Shifts Carcass Values

As we wrap up January it’s apparent that the month’s carcass cutout values have held up quite well in relation to December values. Through last week, the CAB cutout price was just $3/cwt. cheaper than a month ago, by less than 1%. Evaluating the steer and heifer harvest totals shows much smaller weekly totals in January than in early December, creating a significant supply difference relative to demand.

We often discuss January as the lowest beef demand month of the year, while February likely vies for the second lowest, with the exception of a Valentine’s Day uptick. Also, we see a shift in consumer preference away from holiday middle meat roasts toward end cuts for “comfort food” meals.

Price adjustments across a variety of beef cuts are quite dramatic from the fourth quarter into the first quarter of the year. For instance, the wholesale price of the CAB lip-on ribeye roll has been 20% cheaper in the first quarter than it has been in the fourth quarter for the past five years. The January ribeye roll price downshift has been substantial with a 25% decline from the December average. This action has placed ribeye values slightly lower than in the previous three Januarys. The seasonal downturn for tenderloins is similarly sharp, with an 18% price decline from December to January.

(Certified Angus Beef)

So far, the characteristic January increase in demand for end cuts has occurred with all of the round primals either maintaining an elevated price or undergoing sharp increases. Roasting cuts from the chuck have also posted big increases, aligning with the expected January trend.

These shifts in demand affect price spreads based on carcass quality, as the cuts that command the highest per-pound premiums lose some seasonal demand through the first quarter. As cattlemen observe the current market there are questions about the decline in the Choice-Select spread and further premiums for CAB and Prime cutout values. Some have suggested that demand for premium Choice (CAB) and Prime carcasses is possibly waning. However, it’s perfectly natural this time of year as the total rib primal price drops from 170% of the cutout price to 125% and the loin drops from 132% to 126%. Meanwhile, the chuck has increased from 82% to 92% of the cutout price and the round elevated from 79% to 84% of the cutout in the December to January price changes.

Looking ahead to March, carcass quality grades should build toward the annual high percentages for the share of CAB and Prime carcasses. Potential to test or break recent records for high-quality grades is possible late in the first quarter. However, a very limited fed cattle harvest is at the top of the “issues” list during this period, so the likelihood of an overabundance of quality carcasses may very well be countered by small head counts. It promises to be an interesting season for premium beef supply.

CAB Insider: Market Update Jan. 14

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 03:55:44 GMT

As we wrapped up 2025 and the calendar turned to 2026, two holiday-shortened weeks of federally inspected cattle harvest pulled head counts down to 425,000 head and 474,000 head. Last week’s 553,000 head was not a decisive return to pre-holiday volume as the week’s total was the second smallest since mid-October.

Fed steer and heifer volume was 445,000 head, compared to 4th quarter non-holiday weekly averages of 464,000 head and all 4th quarter weeks at 436,000 head. Looking to the first quarter, feedlot turnover rates should continue on a slow pace with added days on feed remaining a theme, and the expectation is for smaller weekly totals. Assuming the U.S. border reopens, CattleFax is projecting a 600,000 head decline in fed cattle harvest for the year. That eventuality is not a given, while a change to the current policy would not increase fed cattle supply until the second half of the year.

Adding disincentive to increase production volume, packer margins are estimated to be at more than $200 per head in the red, according to latest reports.

(Certified Angus Beef)

The comprehensive carcass cutout value began the year with the first week’s average at $353/cwt., 8% higher than the January 2025 average. The first three full weeks of 2025 featured fed cattle harvest volume of 485,000 head. Continuation of smaller weekly head counts is likely to hold wholesale boxed beef prices on a higher plane.

Mid-way into January, seasonal focus has shifted from middle meats toward the more favored winter end-meat roasting cuts. Wholesale cut prices are reflecting major downward corrections with ribeyes and tenderloins dipping below spot prices of the last two years. It’s yet to be seen if retailers will take advantage of the opportunty to buy a volume in the spot market to entice consumers to the meat case.

Price Speaks Volumes

Whether it’s calves, fed cattle or boxed beef, staying current with relevant price information has been an everyday task in the beef sector. Volatility is a tired term in the modern era, even with the exclusion of major industry news.

Running headlong into 2026, the cattle market is ablaze with feeder cattle generating a highlight reel of prices in the first two weeks of January. It’s as if the industry awoke on Jan. 1 to realize that projected declines in feeder calf supplies were suddenly truthful.

On the the end-product side of the equation, there have been recent seasonal undulations as new record carcass weights were charted — accompanied by a record share of 87% Choice and Prime carcasses for the past four weeks. Certified Angus Beef^® brand certification has been steady for the period, near 37% of Angus-type carcasses qualifying. As carcass weights touched new records in the fourth quarter, a disproportional number of those were excluded from the brand as they exceeded 1,100-lb. weight limit specification.

With USDA Prime carcass tonnage (including CAB^® Prime) record-large again in 2025 we revisit price spreads up and down the quality grade and branded product offering. Even as Prime carcass supply increased 11% on the year, the annual average Prime premium increased to $39.04/cwt.above commodity Choice, up $4.72/cwt. for the year. The record $56.21/cwt. annual Prime premium, set in 2022, is unlikely to be tested again anytime soon.

(USDA, Urner Barry)

CAB carcass counts were the fifth largest in brand history for the fiscal 2025 and just 3% fewer than a year ago on the calendar year. Yet the year’s advance of $5.59/cwt. in the cutout premium for traditional CAB carcasses was up 36% over 2024 to average $20.73/cwt. according to Urner Barry.

Calculated Select carcass tonnage slipped 9% on the year while the discount deepened from $17.04/cwt. to average $21.33/cwt. Recent seasonality has brought focus to the Choice/Select spread dipping briefly below $1/cwt. in early January. However, the year-long trend brings to light the big picture of further demand destruction for Select carcasses even as they are less prevalent in the supply chain.

The strong price spread trend is a clear indicator for the industry in 2026. While the tightest fed cattle supplies in the cycle are projected this year, consumer demand has issued directional support that tight supplies do not necessitate narrowing of price differentiation for quality. Importantly, more and more retail and foodservice firms are grasping that a satisfied beef customer is a loyal customer. That starts with a marbling-rich carcass meeting specifications.

October Pork Exports Largest Since March; Encouraging Rebound for Beef

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:50:19 GMT

U.S. pork exports continued to build momentum in October, led by a record performance in leading market Mexico, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). While beef exports remained lower year-over-year, shipments rebounded to some degree in October, posting the largest totals since June.

Record-large shipments to Mexico fuel strong October pork exports

Pork exports totaled 264,657 metric tons (mt) in October, up 5% from a year ago, valued at $762.1 million (up 7%). Both volume and value were the largest since March, led by substantial growth in Mexico and year-over-year increases to Central America, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. In addition to Mexico, October shipments were also record-large to Honduras and Guatemala.

January-October pork exports reached 2.43 million mt, just 2% below the record pace of 2024. Export value was also down 2% to $6.93 billion. The year-over-year difference is mostly due to a 20% decline in exports to China (which are mainly variety meats), where U.S. pork is subject to burdensome retaliatory duties.

Bright spots for October beef exports include Japan, Taiwan, Caribbean, Colombia

Beef exports totaled 93,448 mt in October, down 11% year-over-year but the largest since June and 16% above the low volume posted in September. Export value was also the highest since June at $759.5 million, down 12% from a year ago but 15% above September. October beef exports increased year-over-year to Japan, Taiwan, Canada, the ASEAN region and the Dominican Republic, while also jumping sharply to Colombia. But these gains were more than offset by lack of access to China, which has reduced exports to minimal volumes for the past several months. For markets other than China, October beef exports were up 5% year-over-year in volume and up 7% in value.

January-October beef exports totaled 949,471 mt, down 11% from the 2024 pace, while value was down 10% to $7.79 billion. When excluding China from these results, exports were down 3% in volume and just 1% in value compared to the first 10 months of 2024.

“The latest export data confirm what I consistently hear from customers across the world and from our international staff – that global demand for U.S. red meat remains robust, despite tight supplies and formidable market access barriers,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Obviously, regaining access for U.S. beef in China is our most urgent priority, as industry losses from this lockout are enormous. But we are also hopeful that ongoing trade negotiations will remove barriers in other destinations where consumers have a growing appetite for high-quality red meat.”

October lamb exports trend lower

Exports of U.S. lamb muscle cuts totaled 161 mt in October, down 12% year-over-year, while value fell 6% to $971,000. October shipments declined to the Caribbean but increased to Mexico and Central America. January-October exports were still up 40% year-over-year in volume (2,340 mt) and 27% higher in value ($12.65 million), led by growth in Mexico, Canada, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Panama.

A detailed summary of the January-October export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb, including market-specific highlights, is available here .

Cattle Hold Uptrend After Correcting with CA Plant Closure a Non-Event: Soybeans Fall Further

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 18:00:20 GMT

Grain and livestock futures are lower early in the session Monday.

Cattle Futures Correct
Live and feeder cattle futures saw a higher opening but quickly saw some profit taking set in. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures are overbought after last week’s higher weekly closes and rallying nine out of the last 10 sessions. So this is a healthy correction. He says the market does need to hold support on the February live cattle though at around $228.70 and then below that at $225.65.

Cash Sharply Higher Last Week: Will it Repeat This Week?
The futures were pushed by sharply higher cash trade. In the North deal started at $225 but Wednesday got up to mostly $230, up $7 live. USDA’s mandatory report shows a range of $227 up to $234 in the North live. Dressed prices were mostly $353 to $355, up $10 to $12. In the South most of the business occurred at $230 as well, up $6.

Kooima says the good news is the negotiated totals are high and so that will help clean up some of the heavy cattle weights in the North. The bad news is that may mean packers won’t need as much inventory and so cash may only be steady this week he adds.

Beef Plant Closure
On Friday, news reports indicated JBS was closing a beef plant in Riverside, California . Kooima says it should not have a big impact on the market because it is a small cut and wrap plant and doesn’t do any slaughtering or initial processing. Plus, the plant is small with only around 400 workers.

Boxed Beef in a Slump
Boxed beef continues to see pressure which is not the typical seasonal pattern according to Kooima. Choice boxes slipped again last week and Choice is under $360, now at $357.44. This is a bit concerning he says and likely puts packer margins back in the red.

Lean Hogs Also Correct
Lean hog futures are also correcting on Monday morning. After two higher weekly closes Kooima says that market is also overbought and due for a setback. However, technically the market still looks strong and the cash market is grinding higher with the Lean Hog Index up 23 cents at $82.80 on Monday.

Soybeans Make New Lows for the Move
Soybean futures made new lows for the move on Monday after another lower weekly close and losses of nearly 30-cents. Fund liquidation is part of the pressure as the lagging Commitment of Traders Report shows funds were long nearly 230,000 contracts in soybeans when the market peaked in mid-November and so they are still selling. Kooima says the market is also attempting to fill the chart gap area left on Oct. 24 and so the close will be important to see if the market can bounce off that level or further tanks. This comes despite additional flash sales being confirmed by China on Monday with 5.0 million bu. sold.

Corn Lower With Soybeans
Corn futures were lower in tandem with soybeans Monday despite strong demand and another 5.9 million bu. flash sale of export business to unknown destinations announced. Kooima says the market is still in its trading range but has slipped down to the bottom end of the range. Without any market moving news corn may continue to trade within that range.

CAB Insider: Market Update Dec. 10

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 03:40:28 GMT

The fed cattle trade has undergone a tumultuous ride in the past two months. Weekly fed steer prices averaged $237/cwt. the second week in October, then rapidly declined $28/cwt. by the third week in November.

Last week’s trade featured a sizeable recovery with the five-area steer average up $10/cwt., landing at $221/cwt. with prices as high as $226/cwt. in Kansas. Cash trade was limited to fewer than three packers in Texas, triggering confidentiality rules by USDA regulations. This rule is typically only triggered in the Colorado region where it’s the norm for trade to be reported for just two packers.

The total harvested head count was dramatically higher last week as the 600,000 head eclipsed the prior week’s holiday schedule by 102,000 head. Before last week’s strong upward move in the spot cash cattle price, packer margins were calculated somewhere north of $50/head.

This helped to incentivize packers to ramp up harvest levels, coupled with the increased volume needed to fulfill pre-holiday grocery store beef obligations. The cattle price recovery quickly wiped out much of the packer margin, setting that closer to breakeven as this week got underway.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Carcass cutout values began December with a cheapening trend in continuation of the downward pattern established at the beginning of November. Many observers are decrying weakening beef demand due to the lower price trend. However, softer cutout values were recorded for the month of November in four out of five of the last four years, with the exception of 2024. December price trends are mixed in the last five years with 2022 and 2024 charting higher prices and the remaining three years trending lower.

Cutout price spreads are mixed with the CAB premium above Choice at a very reasonable $16.81/cwt., down $3/cwt. last week. The Choice/Select spread remains relatively wide at $20.06/cwt. in Urner Barry’s data last week. This level is much lower than a year ago, as the Select grade share of fed cattle has slipped to just 10.9% of the carcass supply. Customers for Select grade product are finding their orders shorted while distributors have told them to get on board with “at least” USDA Choice moving forward.

Big Shifts in Quality Grades

The 2025 quality grade trend tracked the USDA Prime grade a full percentage point higher than the prior year through August, averaging 11.5%. Since then, the Prime grade trend has defied seasonal expectations, normally setting a course toward a fall low in both Choice and Prime grade percentages. Instead, the Prime share steadily increased in a punctuated departure to the upside, averaging 12.1% since August.

While the unseasonal swing to the upside is impressive, the past four weeks of data add more emphasis to the chart. In November, Nebraska packers harvested three weeks of cattle above 14% Prime with the final week spiking to 17.2%. This stands to reason as the northern feeding region is currently carrying the most market-ready supply of cattle with the heaviest carcass weights, indicating that days on feed are pushing grade upward. Record-heavy industry carcass weights are a nationwide trend, but led by northern cattle.

On the other hand, Texas feedyards currently have the least occupancy with their cattle inventory hindered by the absence of Mexican cattle. Even so, the Texas grade trend is also charting much richer this season. While the state’s Prime grade is exceptional compared to history, averaging 7.8% since June, the uptrend in USDA Choice is notable. The Texas Choice grade average moved little on either side of 64% through October this year. Yet the last four weeks saw Choice carcasses jump to average almost 69% of the total, while the Prime share gave no ground, averaging 8.1% in the past month.

(Certified Angus Beef)

A combination of factors in Texas creates ample cause for the richer grade trend. First, the average Mexican feeder cattle supply has lower genetic potential for marbling. Absence of these cattle in the current Texas carcass mix easily pushes quality grade higher in the state. As well, the increase in beef x dairy cattle over the past several years has brought the grade higher with refined terminal genetics introduced through this substantial Texas cattle supply. Finally, it’s understood that some northern cattle are shipping to Texas to be harvested as the northern feedlot sector is heavy on market-ready head counts.

A larger share of Upper 2/3’s Choice and Prime carcasses in the Angus-type cattle supply is also helping to hold the CAB carcass certification rate a percentage point higher than a year ago, averaging 36% for the past six weeks. Record-heavy carcass weights featuring average steer carcasses at 988 lb. are keeping a lid on brand acceptance rates. While richer average marbling across the weekly fed harvest suggests we should see even higher brand acceptance rates, there has been an increase in carcasses disqualified because they exceed the brand’s maximum 1,100 lb. carcass weight.

Pork Exports Remain Strong in August; Beef Decline Continues

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 18:21:39 GMT

USDA has released August red meat export data, which was delayed due to the lengthy government shutdown. As compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), August data showed a relatively strong performance for U.S. pork exports. But beef exports were sharply lower than a year ago, impacted heavily by an impasse with China that has effectively locked U.S. beef out of the world’s largest import market.

August pork exports totaled 236,311 metric tons (mt), down 1% from a year ago, valued at $685.9 million (down 2%). August exports were bolstered by another remarkable performance by leading market Mexico, where shipments climbed 8% from a year ago to 102,790 mt, the fifth largest volume on record. Export value reached $252.3 million, up 9% and the second highest on record, trailing only December 2024.

For January through August, pork exports were 3% below last year’s record pace in both volume (1.93 million mt) and value ($5.48 billion). This gap is mostly attributable to lower exports to China, where U.S. pork faces retaliatory tariffs. This situation was especially disruptive in the spring months, when tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China temporarily escalated and there was growing uncertainty about the continued eligibility of U.S. plants. While this situation has since stabilized, China’s total tariff on U.S. pork and most pork variety meat had been 57% until Nov. 10, when it was reduced to 47%.

August beef exports totaled 83,388 mt, down 19% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value fell 18% to $695.5 million, the lowest since February 2021. While exports to China plummeted, shipments were fairly steady to leading market South Korea and trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean and Central and South America.

For January through August, beef exports were 9.5% below last year at 775,188 mt, while value declined 9% to $6.37 billion.

Mexico and Central America continue to shine for U.S. pork

Pork exports to Mexico continue to reach new heights in 2025, with January-August shipments climbing 3% above last year’s record pace in volume (781,605 mt) and 6% higher in value ($1.78 billion). The leading destination for U.S. pork is increasingly competitive, with Brazil’s pork shipments to Mexico (through October) increasing 64% from a year ago to nearly 64,000 mt. However, Brazil still captured less than 5% market share, while U.S. market share is about 80%.

August pork exports to Central America also trended higher, keeping shipments to the region on a record pace. Through August, pork exports to Central America totaled 118,257 mt, up 22% from last year’s record. Value soared 25% to $377.5 million, led by robust growth in Honduras, Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Pork exports to Colombia took a step back in August, falling 29% from last year’s very robust totals in both volume (9,418 mt) and value ($28 million). But January-August shipments to Colombia were still on a record pace, increasing 9% to 85,707 mt, valued at $245.4 million (up 11%).

Among other markets, August pork exports trended higher than a year ago to Korea, the Caribbean, Australia and the Philippines. Shipments were below last year to China, Japan, Canada, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Pork export value equated to $67.74 per head slaughtered in August, up 5% from a year ago, while the January-August average was $65.55 per head, down 1%. Exports accounted for 31% of total August pork production, up two full percentage points from a year ago. For muscle cuts only, the ratio exported was about one percentage point higher at 26.3%. For January through August, exports accounted for just under 30% of total production, down slightly from a year ago. The ratio of muscle cuts exported was steady at 26.1%.

Some bright spots for beef, but impasse with China weighs heavily on exports

With U.S. beef facing a multi-layered lockout in China, export results have worsened throughout 2025 as supplies of eligible product were depleted and more plants were suspended in June and August. Exports sank to just 862 mt in August, down 94% from a year ago. For January through August, exports to China were 52% below last year in volume (56,494 mt) and 53% lower in value ($484.2 million). The accumulated decline in exports for January through October is estimated at $832 million, as September and October exports are also certain to be minimal. As USMEF has previously reported, China has failed to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities. But renewing these registrations is just one of the steps necessary to restore access for U.S. beef in China, where 16 U.S. plants have been suspended since June and 30 facilities have been suspended since 2022. For China to return to its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, it must address all of the barriers obstructing access for U.S. beef.

August beef exports to leading market Korea were slightly below last year in volume, falling 1.5% to 16,823 mt. But export value still increased 3% to $168 million. For January through August, exports to Korea increased 8% from a year ago in volume (162,907 mt) and 9% in value ($1.55 billion).

Beef exports to Central America posted another strong performance in August, climbing 5% from a year ago to 1,512 mt, while value soared 50% to $17 million. Led by robust growth in Guatemala and Costa Rica, January-August beef exports to the region are on a record pace, reaching 14,520 mt, up 6% from a year ago, while value climbed 34% to $134.2 million.

Among other markets, August beef exports trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean region, led by growth in the Dominican Republic, Bahamas and Jamaica, and to South America, led by growth in Chile (where exports have been above year-ago levels in each of the past six months) and a rebound in Colombia. Exports were also higher to Hong Kong, the Philippines, Vietnam, Europe and Morocco, but trended lower to Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan and the Middle East.

Beef export value equated to $372.10 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 5% from a year ago. The January-August average was $400.16 per head, down 3.5% from the same period last year. Exports accounted for 12.1% of total August beef production and 9.8% for muscle cuts only – each down about one percentage point from a year ago. The January-August ratios were 13.1% of total production and 11% for muscle cuts, down from 13.9% and 11.6%, respectively, during the same period last year.

Full January-August export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb are available from USMEF’s statistics web page .

CAB Insider: Market Update Nov. 19

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 13:32:43 GMT

The fed cattle market continued the downtrend last week as pressure from Live Cattle futures and lower boxed beef values weighed on the total beef complex. The larger volume of cash cattle traded in the north with Nebraska and Iowa prices averaging $224/cwt. for the week. Much smaller negotiated head counts in the south were led by Kansas feedyards receiving an average of $230/cwt. with Texas right behind at $228/cwt.

Total harvest volume increased on the week by 16,000 head to reach 576,000 head total. Just 10,000 head of the increase came from fed steers and heifers, putting that weekly total at 459,000 head.

(CAB)

Carcass weight data remains unavailable despite the government reopening but estimates are that average steer/heifer weights should now be near or above 950 lb. Excellent feedlot pen conditions and moderate October-November temperatures have likely added to the year-over-year weight increases which have averaged +24 pounds over last year.

Carcass cutout values have been weaker in November, a pattern which is not atypical for the month. The comprehensive cutout has averaged a 3% decline from the beginning to the end of November in the past three years. With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up next week it’s unlikely that spot market beef business will be sharp enough to support upward wholesale beef prices this week or next.

Tracking Premiums to the Source

Merchandising carcasses is not an easy task. If you ask any ranch-to-table producer what their largest pain points are, you are likely to hear that finding a customer for all of the end meats can be a challenge. That producer likely has excess ground beef supplies just waiting for a customer with a similarly large need. The middle meats are typically easier to move and undersupplied in comparison.

This issue has plagued startup branded beef programs for a few decades. A solid cattle supply plan coupled with a promising marketing niche has been undercut time and time again by the inability to sell the end meats at the necessary premium to make the business model profitable.

Certified Angus Beef faced the same challenges in the formative years, as the first branded beef label set out to garner specification-based premiums in a market where none existed. Now in its 47th year, the brand has successfully carved out premiums over commodity USDA Choice from end to end of the carcass.

(CAB)

On a dollars per primal basis, the loin is untouchable when it comes to the CAB markup with a heavy-hitting combination. Constituting 21.3% of total carcass weight, the loin’s key premium-grabbing cuts, such as the tenderloin, strip loin and top butt, push the loin primal to the top of the carcass without fail. In the brand’s 2025 fiscal year, the loin premium added $51.06 per head to CAB carcasses over Choice.

Many are surprised to learn that the chuck primal is the second largest premium contributor to the CAB carcass, calculating a $38.84 per head premium. The chuck edges out the rib’s total return simply because of its distinct weight advantage at 2.6 times that of the rib. Interestingly, the chuck’s average CAB premium per pound over Choice has advanced such that the chuck moved up to second in the premium hierarchy as recently as 2023. The CAB rib, unsurprisingly, captures just over double the premium per pound when compared to the chuck. The rib added $30.39 per head over Choice in the fiscal 2025 data, contributing just 11.4% of total carcass weight but 18% of the total premium contribution to the carcass.

The round is the last of the four major carcass primals when it comes to the brand’s premium contribution. At 22.3% of carcass weight, the round has traditionally offered less premium opportunity, as these cuts are often less tender than others, often utilized for roasts and ground beef. These factors tend to limit the CAB round premium, landing at $17.68 per head value-add for the year.

Total CAB premiums per head quickly diminish as weight rapidly declines across the brisket, plate and flank. Premiums per pound are quite attractive for briskets and plates, nearing $0.13/lb. for the year. Yet those two combined are just 12% of total carcass weight, limiting their impact as compared to the much heavier primals that carry even larger premiums per pound.

Beef Profit Tracker: Choice Steer Prices Fall

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 19:09:46 GMT

Choice steer prices were down $4/cwt. last week leaving the weekly average for 5-Area Direct Choice steers at $224.33/cwt.

The lower bids for slaughter cattle led to a nearly $150/head drop from the prior week in Sterling’s estimated feedlot margin for week with the average for the week at $264/head.

Packer margins were nearly unchanged from the prior week with an estimated average loss of $40.66/head for the week. The Comprehensive Beef Cutout averaged $375/cwt.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Nov. 15.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

CAB Insider: Market Update Nov. 5

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 09:56:56 GMT

Last week’s federally inspected cattle harvest was 14,000 head smaller than the prior week at 559,000 head. However, the last three weeks have averaged 11,000 head more than the prior four-week period.

Prices ranged from $230/cwt. to $235/cwt. with the average steer price at $231.18/cwt. This week, early indications hold promise for a steady to slightly stronger trend. Early November cash fed cattle have trended either direction in the past few years. The complexity of current market conditions suggests that historical trends are of little importance.

As basis has turned positive, fundamental supply and demand rule the day. Political rhetoric has, so far, proven to be just that, with no actionable changes to the demand-driven market. Downward pressure on futures this Wednesday is firm, however, and will challenge the cash market mentality.

(CAB)

Since headlines fell upon the beef complex Oct. 16, fed and feeder cattle values have taken it on the chin. Feedyards watching the board for their opportunity to hedge their recent “unhedgable” feeder cattle purchases will be forced to wait it out as upper $240’s futures values vanished amidst a stout uptrend. Typically, large October feeder cattle market runs reflect the futures fallout as well. Even so, the latest report shows 550 lb. feeder steers valued at $555 per head more than at the beginning of the year.

Boxed beef cutout values are behaving in line with seasonal expectations following a dramatic correction down from the early September high. This is reasonable given percentage changes on prices at least 20% higher than a year ago have resulted in big swings in actual dollar values. Even so, the uptick toward fourth quarter highs has begun with great middle meat demand leading the way. Price trajectory for ribeyes, tenderloins, strip loins and sirloins have all been quite bullish to the cutout values.

Grind values have been unseasonally higher, as have peeled knuckles (from the round), with demand apparently the driver under more positive supply of 90% lean trim.

Quality is the Hedge

The past two weeks have brought about much emotion and even more misinformation surrounding U.S. beef economics.

The focus of recent market commentary has primarily featured import tariffs and tariff quota adjustments as a political bargaining chip. Undoubtedly, global supply of lean grinding beef is important to the U.S. consumer, with 53% of per capita beef consumption assigned to the ground beef category. With domestic cow harvest volume down 30% from the cycle high, supplemental imports of 90% lean grinding material have been necessary to fulfill U.S. consumer demand. The mere discussion of shifts in this supply has created uncertainty in cattle futures prices, consequential to the cash market as well.

What many are missing in the discussion is the fact that North American grain fed steer and heifer carcasses are vastly different than beef produced elsewhere. Sure, advancements in beef genetics and grain based diets have evolved, to an extent, in countries that have been primary import sources for U.S. beef. Yet fed steer and heifer carcasses produced in the U.S. (and Canada) hold the enviable position of the most preferred product not only domestically but across the globe. Of course, competition in the lean grinding cow beef category is a significant economic factor for our producers. Record-high 90% lean beef prices have made those domestic cull cows a historically profitable revenue source in the past few years.

The commodity end of the beef market features products like lean grinds that are easily substituted from different sources and even countries. As a contributor to nearly half of the per capita beef consumption, this is not to be ignored and certainly hasn’t been in the recent few weeks.

(Tonsor, K-State)

This discussion leads to an important point. A few decades of advances in carcass quality have created an insulating factor for our fed steer and heifer product, by comparison. Spectacular quality achievements on the part of our collective producers have culminated in unmatched domestic and global beef demand for our product, especially as volume compared to other large exporting countries is accounted for. The fact that some $400 per head of fed cattle value can be attributed to exports stands as proof that consumers in an ever-growing number of countries demand high quality U.S. beef.

This is a synopsis of what a branded product, like Certified Angus Beef^®, can accomplish. When customers come to expect a repeatable eating experience where product quality, satisfaction and safety are built in, demand will only increase. USDA Choice and Prime carcasses constitute 84% of U.S. fed cattle production, pulling beef demand sharply higher today than in the late 1990s when USDA Select was roughly half of our supply and beef demand was at a modern day low.

The Certified Angus Beef brand now constitutes nearly 25% of U.S. fed cattle production. Ten carcass specifications and a label that has become recognizable by 84% of consumers have carved out a premium space in the market that is not easily substituted. It’s the achievement of cattlemen and scores of downstream suppliers buying in to focus on quality, while competing protein models almost exclusively focus on efficiency and affordability.

While government policy is not readily in our control, product quality remains a unique advantage that we can continue to use to maintain a competitive moat.

CAB Insider: Market Update Oct. 22

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 12:41:28 GMT

Federally inspected cattle harvest head counts have swung widely in the past three weeks, beginning with a 14,000 head decline two weeks ago as one fed cattle plant idled several days for scheduled upgrades. Last week’s recovery from the downturn pulled the week’s total 9,000 head larger than the six-week average.

Late last week, President Trump made statements about potential action to lower beef prices through purchases from Argentina. That brought an abrupt end to a precipitous nine-day run in which nearby Live Cattle contracts rose more than $13/cwt. without correction. Friday’s Feeder Cattle futures were limit-down and Live Cattle futures traded sharply lower as a result.

(CAB)

Follow-up trade early this week showed resiliency in futures prices as the market has shrugged off the President’s comments, regaining much of the price slippage incurred on Friday. For instance, the April 2026 Live Cattle contract touched the high-water mark of $250/cwt. last Thursday before settling $7.28/cwt. lower by Friday’s close. By Tuesday morning, a $3.05/cwt. recovery pulled the April contract up to $246/cwt..

Cash fed cattle prices last week showed no resemblance to Friday’s futures setback with fed cattle averaging $239.79/cwt., a $6.84/cwt. increase on the prior week. Seasonal increases in wholesale cutout values are expected to continue at least through the end of October. This potential, along with strong packer demand to capture a large head count last week, has propped up prices for now.

Heavy Lifting Ahead for Cutout Values

The typical October beef market is marked by a strong swing in carcass cutout values as a lull in demand follows Labor Day, sending cutout values to a seasonal low beginning in October. The turnaround happens quickly, with cutout values in early October 2% below the year’s annual average. By month’s end, prices averaged 1% above the annual average in the last three years.

In order for this pattern to repeat in 2025, the Comprehensive cutout would need to gain $10/cwt. in the next 10 days. This would be a fairly large lift, but not out of the question. One factor we must bear in mind is that 2025 wholesale carcass prices have varied widely within a range of $87/cwt. This compares to a much tighter average trading range of just $25/cwt. in the prior three years. This year’s Comprehensive cutout values are averaging 16% higher than last year, therefore, a 3% shift means a larger dollar value move than last year.

The above information seems less closely tied to potential fed cattle prices this season since a significant disconnect exists between cutout values and fed cattle values. Packers have, after all, run deep in the red for many months this year. Narrower margin losses do, however, encourage larger harvest levels.

(CAB)

A look at individual beef cuts and seasonal price trends for the fourth quarter reveals a few impactful cuts will shoulder the load toward higher prices. It’s evident that ribeyes and tenderloins come into focus for the holidays. Even so, the steep uptrend began in August for these items, leaving seemingly less upward lift available. Most would agree that despite current price levels, 20-30% higher than a year ago, new record-high prices are in the cards for early December.

Strip loins have continued to be sought after as the cheaper steak and roast item substitute for the holidays. Yet their growing popularity is holding strip loin prices on a higher plane this season. A few other items with impressive price points include shoulder clods and briskets, the latter of which are supported on smaller head counts and processer demand ahead of corned beef season.

A final optimistic note for cattlemen is the widening of the USDA Prime cutout price spread above USDA Choice; the latest spread is $57/cwt. This bolstered average Prime grid premiums to $22.42/cwt. earlier this month and comes at a time when Prime carcass production is seeing an uptick. Nebraska takes the prize among the largest packing states as feeders in the region are delivering 14.6% Prime carcasses to packers, a big move from the 10% level seen the same week last year. Kansas and Texas grade trends are similarly impressive, with Kansas up to 9.7% and Texas closing the gap at 8% Prime.

CAB Insider: Market Update Oct. 8

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 11:43:50 GMT

The weakening fed cattle price trend, in place throughout September, showed no directional change last week as the market traded $2 to $3/cwt. lower.

A significant trend shift, first reported here two weeks ago, focuses on the tremendous change from the northern feeding region’s $10/cwt. premium over the southern region. This has inverted to give southern feedlots a $3/cwt. premium over the north in last week’s ending values. There is a degree of seasonality attributed to a fall turnaround in this regional price structure, coupled with more adequate fed cattle supplies currently in the north.

(Urner Barry)

Downward price pressure to fed cattle values can largely be attributed to carcass cutout values that have rapidly eroded since the beginning of September. It is seasonally appropriate for boxed beef prices to cheapen during September although fed cattle prices have increased an average of 6% during the month in the past three years. In latest estimates, the relationship between fed cattle and wholesale cutout values has pushed spot market packer margins near losses of $200 per head.

Just as live cattle prices have drifted lower, feeder cattle prices have catapulted higher. CME Feeder Cattle contracts are revisiting their late-August highs with October and November contracts touching $368/cwt. Cash prices are setting new records across the country this week as fall feeder calf sales hit their stride in what promises to be a highlight season in the auction barns. Feedlot breakevens are leaving broken pencils in their wake as managers try to gain traction in an extremely competitive market.

Continual Improvement Drives CAB Acceptance Rates

The Certified Angus Beef fiscal year wrapped up in September, offering the chance to measure successes and challenges for hundreds of the brand’s partners. Cattlemen who supply the brand are similarly afforded a chance to review years of quality improvements in cattle and carcasses.

The total pounds of Certified Angus Beef ® brand product sold is the downstream measure that keeps revenue flowing for all parties. Rather than reverting to a “commodity in volume” mentality, think of it as “pounds of premium product” sales. The past year marked the tenth consecutive year that brand sales have topped 1 billion lb. This is impressive for the brand, given the year was constrained by significantly fewer fed cattle harvested. In fact, the 5.77 million certified carcasses represent a 2.9% decline in carcass supplies for the brand than last year.

Slight year-over-year improvement in the brand’s carcass acceptance rate drove brand suppliers to achieve a new record of 37.6% of eligible carcasses meeting the 10 required carcass specifications. Those close to the feedlot sector understand that escalating days on feed and finishing weights have added to average carcass marbling achievement this year. While impactful in the short term, the long term trend is nearly linear, tracking the brand’s acceptance rate from just 14% in 2006, the lowest in modern history, to increase 170% in 20 years.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Just as we detailed in the last Insider , carcass weights have increased mightily in the past few years. The brand’s average carcass weight for the fiscal year was 921 lb., a 22 lb. increase over last year and 38 lb. over two years. This shored up a portion of the decline in carcass production volume brought down by idled processing speeds. It appears that heavy weights are a fixture of the current market environment with end-users begrudgingly accepting this reality a few years ago.

Finally, Certified Angus Beef brand Prime sales were a highlight of the year as the trends we’ve reported on in the Insider played out in annual sales reports. It’s no surprise given that “taste” is the most important driver in consumer decisions when purchasing protein. This, plus the fact that a record 13.6% of all CAB carcasses were CAB Prime last year, a 3.6% increase in a year when total certified head counts were lower. Elevated CAB Prime carcass supplies opened the door to record sales volumes.

While not without challenges, the past year has been very successful for CAB. It can’t be overstated how important growing consumer demand for our product has been in the past few years. It’s due in no small part to the concerted effort and pressure cattlemen have placed on carcass quality for two decades.

CAB Insider: Market Update Sept. 24

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 10:44:43 GMT

Fed cattle prices have moved incrementally lower in the past two weeks as a handful of factors have accumulated to pressure the market lower. October Live Cattle futures made a significant correction from $235/cwt. down to $230/cwt. on Sept. 9, which has taken days to recover. As well, lower boxed beef cutout values coupled with growing market-ready fed cattle supplies in the northern feeding region add to the downward momentum.

The increasing northern supply situation stands in contrast to Texas feedyard inventories remaining quite devoid of normal supplies in the absence of Mexican feeder cattle. This has inverted the months-long northern price premium, giving the TX/KS market roughly a $2/cwt. premium now compared to the NE/IA trade regions. This reshuffling of price across the regions is a historically expected pattern in the fall, but contrasting cattle inventory conditions across the regions suggest it’s even more appropriate today.

(Urner Barry)

Fed cattle harvest levels remain 8% lower compared to a year ago, an accelerated decline in the past several weeks that began to amplify as far back as July.

Cheapening carcass cutout values were a major theme last week, with the Comprehensive Cutout down $11.31/cwt., accumulating to a two-week decline of $16.14/cwt. This week began with further weakness in boxed beef values as the anticipated September market dip has finally set in despite very tight overall fed cattle harvest. Live Cattle futures have been erratic as of late, reacting to news already accounted for in the fundamentals of the market. Futures are providing no leadership to the cash market, suggesting that seasonal expectations may guide nearby price trends.

Carcass Weights at it Again

Heavier carcass weights are no headline in 2025, yet this week’s official beginning of fall presents a great time to check in on weight trends. Year to date, average weekly fed cattle carcasses are 24 lb. heavier than a year ago and an astounding 46 lb. heavier than in 2023. These increases are a tremendous leap beyond the historic trend, tracking the annual increase in the range of 5.5 lb. heavier.

(Certified Angus Beef)

The 2020 fed cattle supply backlog, instigated by the pandemic, boosted carcass weights by 26 lb. This unprecedented event was logically expected to undergo a correction with weights returning nearer to the pre-pandemic trendline as fed cattle supplies normalized in 2021. Yet, the correction did not materialize, as annual average weights only declined 2 lb. in 2021 to average 878 lb., still 24 lb. heavier than the pre-pandemic level.

A 3 lb. increase in 2022 set a new annual record before the following year’s 5 lb. decline, which would be considered a bit of a normalization. However, winter weather in 2023 was devastating in the feeding sector, removing a month’s worth of gain and dragging weights dramatically lower to start the year. The bottom line is, despite brief weather disruptions, target feedlot out-weights have only increased since the pandemic. The beef industry simply accepted a paradigm shift adding 26 lb. of carcass weight to the trend line in a single year. Little did we know in 2020 that we’d add another 40 lb. to the ledger by 2025.

Early September data shows latest weighted average steer/heifer carcasses just 3 lb. lighter than the single-week record heaviest weights (928 lb.) marked in January of this year. Interestingly, the month of January is never the month the annual heaviest weights are recorded. A strong Live Cattle futures decline last November slowed fed cattle sales as feedlot managers awaited a market recovery. In the five-year average, annual heaviest weights have come during the second week of November. The typical fall pattern tracks weekly weight gain from September 1 through mid-November with an average 15 lb. increase for the period.

If this fall were to follow the five-year average trend, the heaviest annual steer/heifer weight for the year would be 940 lb. in November, surpassing last January’s record by 12 lb. This would also place steer carcasses (averaging 81 lb. heavier than heifers this year) at an annual high of 973 lb. in November.

It may be presumptuous to assume carcass weights will continue to climb at the magnitude of the recent five-year average—given that early September weights were already just short of the record following a strong 14 lb. run-up over four weeks. Packer processing appetite will continue to play a key role through the season, along with cattle basis and weather. Cost of gain remains aligned with some of the best feeding weather of the year to see weights increase to fall highs yet to be determined. Without rationalizing a slowdown in upticks in the fourth quarter, weights are on track to average 922 lb. for the year.

Cattle Surge as NWS Nears U.S.: Soybeans Tank as Argentina Drops Export Tax

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 16:05:06 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher Monday with grain markets lower.

Cattle Surge Higher on New World Screwworm News

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are sharply higher on Monday as news came Sunday evening that New World screwworm (NWS) had been detected 70 miles from the U.S. Mexican border in an 8-month-old calf from a transported herd.

USDA said in a press release Sunday that Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) confirmed a new case of NWS in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the state of Nuevo León. This is now the northernmost detection of NWS during this outbreak.

The USDA has activated its 5-point plan to keep NWS out of the country and more announcements are expected in the next 24 hours.

Could Cattle Futures Retest the Highs?

Fund and technical buying was triggered in the cattle futures especially as both markets got back above the 20-day moving averages, which was the breakout level that spurred the recent correction.

If the futures close above these levels Kooima thinks the futures could retest the recent contract and record highs.

Futures Rally Could Mean Higher Cash Cattle Trade

Kooima says if the strong technical action in the cattle futures continues to build this week he thinks it is very likely the cash trade could be higher than a week ago.

He thought cash traded better than expected last week with the South at mostly $240, which was steady and the North at $236 to $238.

Cattle on Feed Neutral

Kooima viewed Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral as the major categories came in close to expectations.

On feed was at 98.9% of a year ago, placements were at 90.1% and marketings at 86.4%.

However, he says with the low placement and marketings he thinks its a sign of heifer retention.

And he explains the lower placements in Iowa, which were down 16%, the function of feedlots already being full.

Hogs Continue Higher

Lean hog futures continue to move higher with some spillover from cattle and continued fund buying as contracts are near contract highs.

However, Kooima is concerned that slaughter pace last week at 2,593,000 was up over last year by 76,000 head and weights are also climbing.

Soybeans Anchor Grains as Argentina Drops Export Tax

Soybeans have taken out key support areas Monday morning with hangover from the disappointing China talks plus a new wrinkle in the Southern Hemisphere.

Argentina suspended their export tax on grains until Oct. 31st in an effort to move stored stocks and ease their financial turmoil.

That is weighing on the soybean, bean oil and meal markets, which is also dragging down corn and wheat.

CAB Insider: Market Update Sept. 10

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 12:57:58 GMT

The fed cattle market is showing signs of sands shifting underfoot as weekly cash trade showed signs of fatigue as cattle traded, on average, about $1/cwt. lower last week. This interrupts what has been a steadily firmer price trend building after a short-term pullback in late June.

While cattle in the northern reporting regions of Nebraska and Iowa/Minnesota have long commanded a significant premium over Texas and Kansas cattle, this trend also ended last week. The northern market averaged roughly $2/cwt. lower while Texas and Kansas averages remained steady.

Some indications point toward short-term cattle supplies in the north a bit more adequate at this time than they have in in recent weeks. With the passing of Labor Day beef demand, Live Cattle futures ended last week with a softer tone. This extended to much deeper cuts this Tuesday as the market sold off in a major way. Little news on the fundamental side could have pressured the market, but when it comes to the reaction from speculative traders, President Trump’s recent comments about future lower beef prices can’t be ignored.

(Urner Barry)

Last week’s carcass cutout values were higher, on average, and in the range of $2.30/cwt. The trends were close to even across the quality grades and CAB. Price spreads between each remained quite wide with a tremendous $51/cwt. spread between the Certified Angus Beef^® brand and USDA Select.

Early this week, however, cutout quotes began to trend a bit lower, possibly indicating the expected easing following Labor Day. Perspective is important to the discussion, as packers continued to ration supply last week even accounting for Monday’s holiday. Tight supplies have boosted cutout values to roughly 35% higher than a year ago. As such, a step lower in wholesale beef prices is hardly an indication of weakness in beef demand. Assuming harvest volume remains near recent levels through September, the seasonally expected easing of wholesale cutout values will likely be muted.

Big-time Cutout Performance

In the second and third quarters this year, carcass cutout values have risen at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, fed cattle harvest levels fell from just a 0.5% deficit in the first quarter to averaging near 8% below last year beginning in March.

September carcass prices typically decline as Labor Day demand passes and the shift toward fall pulls prices a bit lower. Typical seasonal price weakness is most noted on the loin, the carcass’s leading primal for total value.

In what’s left of September, current market dynamics appear to be limiting downside risk for boxed beef prices. Tight fed cattle harvest volume has spurred beef retailers to begin securing their fourth-quarter middle meat roast needs a month earlier than normal. This has sent pricing for the two “darlings of December” — ribeyes and tenderloins — to record-highs in the latest wholesale data. Prices for these two cuts typically pick up in September with stronger weekly gains in October/November. Yet proactive buying has CAB ribeyes already pricing 37% above late July values and tenderloins 25% higher for the period. These compare to 10% and 4% average increases from the July lows through August in the prior three years.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Carcass weights averaging 25 lb. heavier this year will do little to offset the deficit in ribeyes and tenderloins. Depending on cooking method, these cuts remain sensitive to steak thickness for desired doneness, leaving only fractional piece-count advantages with added cut weight.

Strip loin prices tend to peak in June and reach annual lows in September. Fourth quarter roast demand traditionally has little impact beyond a 10% lift into December. Yet last week’s wholesale strip prices made a sharp 6% upward departure while an equally sharp decline into early September is historically the norm. No doubt, limited piece count is a factor with strip loins this season, accompanied by the substitution factor of this quality steak/roast cut selling several dollars below it’s middle meat contemporaries.

With middle meats a key seasonal transition at this time, we’d be remiss not to note the heaviest primal, the chuck, and it’s exceptional pricing trajectory of late. The entire CAB chuck value has increased 19% since late July with the chuck roll up a whopping 70% in August. The round has benefitted greatly as well, following ground beef supply/demand factors, with a 15% uptick for the period. Odds are that round prices will relax with expected slowing ground beef demand.

It remains to be seen if current price levels are just the beginning of a continued trend of increasing prices as retail meat buyers get ahead of a shortfall in fourth quarter spot market supplies. Alternatively, these factors are simply pricing into the market earlier and to sharper extremes than we’d typically expect, leaving smaller increases to follow into the fourth quarter.

A Mixed Bag for Red Meat Exports: Strong July for Pork, Challenges for Beef

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 15:41:33 GMT

It’s been a solid month again for pork, says U.S. Meat Export Federation President (USMEF) and CEO Dan Halstrom. Although numbers were down slightly from last year at 238,922 metric tons, July exports accounted for a larger share of production, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the USMEF.

“It’s really the same theme that we’ve heard for a while,” Halstrom says. “Broad-based results from a lot of different countries are contributing to it. The leader continues to be Mexico.”

He points out that Central America in particular was at 14,500 tons, 35% above a year ago.

“Central America continues to be amazing on pork,” he says. “You’ve got regions like the Caribbean, they continue to perform, up again this month.”

Another highlight for pork is recent news about increased quotas into the European Union.

“We’ve been saying all along that in these negotiations, pork is sort of the quiet potential winner here in terms of incremental access,” Halstrom says. “And Europe is not generally thought of as a destination for pork exports, but there has been some history in the past with significant tonnages going there, and this might allow us to rekindle that demand, especially on items like ham meat.”

Pork variety meat demand was strong in July, with exports posting the second largest volume this year, Halstrom says. He notes pork value fell 4% to $680.9 million, largely reflecting the 10% decline in pork variety meat prices due to China’s tariffs.

Through the first seven months of 2025, pork exports were 4% below last year’s record pace in both volume (1.69 million mt) and value ($4.8 billion).

A Major Thorn in the Side for U.S. Beef

U.S. beef performed very well in July in leading market South Korea, as well as in the Caribbean, Central America, Chile, the Philippines and Africa. But with shipments to China nearly halted due to a lack of eligible plants, July beef exports were down 19% from a year ago to 89,579 mt, the lowest in five years. Export value declined 17% to $752.5 million, the lowest since January 2023.

“We were down about 19% at just about 90,000 metric tons. The vast majority of that decrease is attributable to China, which we fully expected,” Halstrom adds. “China continues to be a major thorn in our side in terms of lack of access, with the vast majority of the beef plants and cold storages not listed for China.”

Halstrom says this continues to be a very high profile priority for USTR and USDA, and USMEF is pushing strongly in that area.

“Outside of China, demand continues to be pretty resilient. Korea had a very good month in the month of July. We saw growth in excess of 10% there. While down slightly, Japan had a fairly good month as well,” he says.

From January through July, beef exports were 8% below last year in volume (691,800 mt) and down 7.5% in value ($5.67 billion).

CAB Insider: Market Update Aug. 27

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 13:01:46 GMT

The fed cattle market moved to higher values again last week with a $1.55/cwt. increase in the six-state fed steer price. Negotiated cash trade volume was active in the north, with Iowa and Nebraska prices averaging $245/cwt. live and $386/cwt. dressed. Limited Kansas and Texas negotiated head counts sold for $239 to $240/cwt.

On Monday, USDA adjusted last week’s estimated weekly cattle harvested up from 547,000 head to 551,000 head. This was 15,000 head larger than the prior week’s abysmal 530,000 head and the largest harvest volume since the second week in July. Still, 58,000 head smaller than the same week last year.

(Urner Barry)

Steer carcass weights remain heavier than a year ago by 14 lb. per head and 38 lb. heavier than the same week in 2023. The annual weight increase has narrowed in the third quarter, averaging 18 lb. heavier than last year. This compares to the first quarter jump of 30 lb. per head and the second quarter average of 21 lb. per head. Weights are expected to increase into the fall, but the pace of the increase from the summer low (931 lb.) is slower than it has been in the past two years.

Cutout values have been increasing at blistering speed over the past two weeks. Given that roughly 20% of boxed beef is typically available on the weekly spot market trade, buyers have had to compete for very small volume with fed cattle harvest 10% below a year ago in recent weeks. Cutout values have now surpassed their late-June highs following the July slump that took prices down 6%. Since recovering from the summer low, the comprehensive price is now the second highest price in history, only surpassed by the May 2020 COVID spike.

With retailers through their last-minute Labor Day buying, there is a strong likelihood that prices may relax, as is their tendency, moving into September. Demand tends to wane after the holiday, prior to normal fourth quarter increases.

Holding on for the Ride

The comprehensive cutout value, including all grades and delivery periods for fed steer and heifer beef cuts, has rapidly escalated from the late July summer low of $364.54/cwt. to this Tuesday’s $393.98/cwt. quote. This 8% increase is not much larger than the typical seasonal price hike for the same period, averaging 6.5% in the previous five years.

(CAB)

While August boxed beef inflation is more normal than one might think, it is capturing attention this year given the slightly sharper incline and the resulting comprehensive price that is now 25.6% higher than this time last year. The magnitude of this year over year price advance is a difficult reality for retail and foodservice sectors to digest. Even so, it’s a smaller percentage increase than that of the 2013-2014 period when the comprehensive price jumped 29.6% in the same August-to-August annual comparison.

Restricted cattle harvest as a result of weather-driven cow herd reductions was also the culprit in the 2013-2014 beef market run-up. Tracing the fed cattle price reaction for these periods provides yet another interesting comparison. From August 2013 to August 2014 the fed steer price increased 24% while the current 12-month price adjustment has, so far, brought on a 33% increase in fed steer value.

Continuing the theme, evaluating similar market dynamics roughly a decade apart, shows dramatic differences in carcass quality price spreads. Starting at the top of the quality grades with the smallest spread difference, the latest price spread between USDA Prime and Choice is just 13% larger than in August 2014. This is logical given that Prime carcass volume and share of fed beef supplies has more than doubled in that period. Next, the CAB® cutout premium over USDA Choice, currently $22.25/cwt., is more than triple that of the August 2014 market. Finally, the Choice/Select price spread last week averaged $23.39/cwt., just over twice the magnitude of that in August 2014. Bear in mind that wholesale boxed beef prices are 60% higher today than they were at that time, tempering the impact of today’s price spreads by comparison.

With fed cattle supplies projected to tighten even further into 2026, we aren’t equipped to mark any peak on the price charts for this phase of the supply cycle. What does appear evident is that, despite total beef market fluctuations, consumer demand for marbling-rich carcasses meeting consumer expectations are generating substantially larger premiums and gross dollars, compared to the average, than they were under similar market circumstances in 2014.

Will the Bull Market in Cattle Ever End?

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 17:37:51 GMT

The bull market continues in cattle with record cash prices fueling all-time highs in nearby live and feeder cattle futures again on Tuesday. The action is leaving the industry — especially producers — wondering if there is anything that can stop this incredible run?

Cash is King

Brad Kooima, of Kooima Kooima Varilek, calls this the bull market of his career. He says the key is cash trade leading the futures, with fed cash cattle hitting a new record again last week. The average steer price came in at $243.17, which was up $3.79 from the previous week.

“Cash is king with one packer in particular coming out there and paying higher money in areas of the cattle belt on Friday,” Kooima says.

The South traded mostly $235 to $236 live, with the volume in the North at mostly $245 live.

“Probably the high point of the whole deal came Friday in western Nebraska at $247. So again, there’s a wide range of markets — North is generally higher than the South — but new record highs here again and very impressive,” he explains.

Closeouts Also at Record Levels

The good news is profit margins per head for feedlots are also at record highs, according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek.

“Near a $1,000 a head closeout profit, and you’re wanting to take that for sure in my opinion,” he says.

Profitability Throttles Back Expansion

And that profitability is leading to a lack of heifer retention and expansion, says Don Close, senior animal protein analyst for Terrain.

“Even with the reduction in cow slaughter that we have seen for the year, in my line of thinking, mathematically, we’re still liquidating,” he explains. “Now there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence of people retaining heifers. But I don’t think we’ve numerically reached a plateau yet to think we’re into net expansion.”

Brady Huck of Advance Trading agrees, but adds some of his clients are starting to think more seriously about rebuilding.

“There’s also some tax implications as ranchers are out there selling their steer calves at record prices,” he adds. “If they go sell their heifer calf crop as well, they get into a situation where they’ve got to pay taxes on all that income — and you know how they hate to do that.”

When Will the Market Top?

Market analysts have been hesitant to call a top in the futures because live cattle are trading at such a steep discount to the cash trade. Plus, technically the futures have hit contract highs several times and put in key reversals only to have that bearish technical pattern negated.

Kooima says markets often top when the news is the most bullish, and there has been plenty of fundamental news for the bulls to feed on.

Supplies are tight, with the historical low in the cattle herd fueling the record cash prices for both fed and feeder cattle.

However, the market has also been fueled by the closure of the Southern border to Mexican feeder cattle , and the big key has been strong consumer demand .

What Could Break the Market?

Kooima says one thing that could break the market is a slowdown in consumer demand, which so far hasn’t happened — even with record-high retail beef prices.

The other possibility is a break in the cash market as packers get tired of negative margins.

Tyson Foods reported beef processing margins were down 8.8% in Q2 for a loss of $494 million.

Processors have been cutting kills for several weeks to prop up boxed beef values and stem their losses, but those kill cuts are ramping up even more.

Kooima adds, “I think there’s going to be a lot of kill cuts this week, you know, excuses for cooler clean outs and repairs. I think you’re going to hear a lot of 32-hour weeks in some of these places.”

With the fund, or managed money traders, near record long in the market, the other fear is a black swan event that could cause them to liquidate.

At these price levels, that means increased volatility in the cattle market. So, market analysts agree risk management is more important than ever.

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Cattle Prices Predicted to Continue Climbing: Breaking Down the Latest USDA Reports

CAB Insider: Market Update July 30

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 13:43:47 GMT

The pace of cattle harvest slowed even more last week with 549,000 head total, down 14,000 head from the week prior. A mechanical issue at one major plant last Monday pulled the head count lower that day, yet abundant harvest capacity did not pick up the slack by Friday, which has been the truncated harvest day in most recent weeks.

(Urner Barry)

After an early July pullback to the $224/cwt. average, fed cattle prices uncharacteristically ratcheted higher for three weeks, culminating in last week’s $238.80/cwt. steer average.

At the beginning of July the nearby August Live Cattle contract started at $212/cwt., apparently favoring seasonal expectations leading to a major cash market break developing through the month. Since quite the opposite has occurred in the cash market, the August contract has had to hustle to catch up to the reality of the fundamentals. Thus, the August contract as of Tuesday this week traded at $229/cwt., still below the market average but in-line with the southern cash trading range of $230/cwt. last week.

Packer leverage has been impossible to find as spot negotiated trade remains unfazed in the wake of handfuls of cutout price cuts throughout the past three weeks. The National Comprehensive Cutout has dropped $0.19/lb. (5%) since the beginning of July while spot fed cattle values increased 6.6%.

Cutout values are expected to continue on a slightly lower trend for a few weeks as the market finalizes a reset coming off of the sharp summer highs. Ground beef demand has been a bit softer lately as buyers watch round primal prices weaken. Rib values were stronger last week but short loin, strip loin and sirloins continued sharply lower retreats from record early July price points.

Trends Entrenched

Last Friday’s USDA Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports made for a big day in updating cattle supply forecasts for the near future. June 2025 feedlot placements were 8% lower than June 2024, greatly missing the average analyst expecations that predicted just a 2.5% reduction. The production sector is more attuned to the impact of the stoppage of Mexican feeder cattle imports and a domestic feeder and calf supply down -0.4% (CattleFax estimate) from Friday’s report.

Downstream beef buyers (distributors and grocers) must adjust their price expectations to remain on trend at recent levels with an upward bias. Since early July the national Comprehensive Cutout price has declined 5% from $388.64/cwt. to $369.20/cwt. (17% above a year ago). This classic July downturn shouldn’t be mistaken for weakening demand or a shift to a lower trading range for beef. Instead, this normal seasonal dip should be followed by an increase ahead of Labor Day, followed not long after by fourth quarter holiday demand surge. These are historic patterns, subject to unforseen developments impacting the market.

Certified Angus Beef ^® brand supply trends will continue to see the push and pull of cattle management responding to tight cattle supplies. Estimates for this year’s corn crop suggest an exceptionally large yield, continuing downward price pressure. This, coupled with freshly printed record replacement feeder cattle prices, will work to entrench the modern feedyard motivation to push days on feed to new heights with carcass weights following along to new records. The latest average fed cattle carcass weights are 23 lb. heavier than a year ago and 46 lb. heavier than two years ago. Feedyard and packer margins are assisted through the increased weight per head. In this scenario, excessive external carcass fat is problematic on many pens of cattle but economics have lately been overriding this downfall.

(CAB)

With even tighter cattle supplies ahead in 2026, consumer beef demand remains key to pulling the beef supply chain through the narrowest of the cycle supply lows. So far, higher prices have not diminished traditional CAB cutout premiums. The magnitude of inquiries for the most premium, Certified Angus Beef ^® brand Prime product from retail end users has been impressive lately, at even more impressive price levels. Yet with expected further tightening of fed cattle harvest throughput into next year, the proportion of quality carcasses meeting brand standards is keenly important. We cannot grow the pie without the ingredients, and the customer needs every carcass the supply chain can create.

A parting supply chain bright spot from the Cattle Inventory report shows a slight increase in the beef cow herd this year (CattleFax estimates +0.9%) and a relativley even, yet slightly smaller beef replacement heifer number compared to a year ago. With cow/calf economics looking bright near term, the capital investment in replacements (i.e. opportunity cost in retention) is ever-growing. Ranchers have to compete with feeder cattle prices whether buying replacements or opting to retain them. This means that decisions on expansion are very much individualized from producer to producer and likely won’t result in an ”all-in” turnaround in heifer retention.

Cattle Prices Predicted to Continue Climbing: Breaking Down the Latest USDA Reports

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 18:37:13 GMT

With the release of the Cattle on Feed report and Cattle Inventory Report
on Friday, data shows the nation’s cattle herd is still not expanding and feedlot placements continue to decline.

The exciting news for cattle producers is that based on the reports, Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, predicts cattle producers have not seen the highest cattle prices, yet.

“While I don’t think we’ve seen the high water mark of this market, I do not think we’ll continue to see prices escalate at the rate we have for the year to date,” he says.

Cattle on Feed Shows Bullish Placements

(USDA-NASS)

The on-feed total was 11.1 million head, down 1.6% from a year ago, the lowest in eight years. Placements were down 8%, the lowest in 16 years.

Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, says, “The placements came in substantially less than expected and as a result of that, it did change the on-feed number to about half a percent less than expected.”

Close adds, “If you look at the decline in placements, specifically Texas, and those Southern feeding states, and the implications we’re getting because of the border closure, to me, that’s the real story in the long-term ramifications to the market.”

He says the state-by-state breakdown confirms Texas placements down 18% compared to last year, Oklahoma down 27% while Iowa is up 21%.

“I think that’s going to have a big impact on the north to south price spread that has been such a big issue in the market through 2025 year to date,” he explains.

Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky livestock agriculture economist, says: “The surprise of this quarterly Cattle on Feed report was June placements, which were down 8% from 2024 and outside the range of expectations. Marketings continue to suggest we may be pulling cattle ahead, but placements suggest we are not replenishing them at the same pace.”

(USDA-NASS, compiled by LMIC)

Heifers, as a percentage of on-feed inventory, came in at 38.1%. This is about a percent and a half lower than July 1, 2024, but up about half a percent from April of this year.

“Much like the beef replacement heifer estimate from the inventory report, this does not suggest much retention is occurring,” Burdine says. “Any growth in beef cow numbers is coming from reduced cow slaughter.”

(USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS)

Cattle Inventory Down 1% from 2023

The cattle inventory report was compared to 2023 since last July’s report was cut. Close says it shows the smallest herd on record, with all cattle and calves down 1% at 94.2 million head.

He says the calf crop at 33.1 million is the biggest market signal.

“The real critical number is the calf crop number,” Close says. “That was down 1% so it still shows, you know, we’re going to see additional limits on the available number of potential placement or available cattle outside of the feedyard, again in 2026.

Ag Economists Weigh in

Following the release of the reports on Friday, seven university agriculture economists shared their perspectives after reviewing the data:

Will Secor, University of Georgia
“The July Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports from USDA provided indications that the cattle herd is approaching a low in inventory but may not be there just yet. The mid-year cattle report provided a first estimate of the 2025 calf crop, which is projected to be roughly 1.3% smaller than the 2024 calf crop. Combined with January’s report of fewer beef cow replacement heifers, this is an indication that the cattle herd may still be smaller come January 2026. However, the Cattle on Feed report indicates that the share of cattle on feed that are heifers declined again year-over-year to its lowest July reading since 2019. Overall, these reports show a continued decline in the cattle inventory, but they also shed some light on the potential of a rebuild that may be starting soon.”

(USDA-NASS)

Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky
“The fact that there was no mid-year inventory report in 2024 makes comparison a bit difficult. Beef cow inventory was down by 1.2% from July of 2023. Most were expecting beef cow inventory to be down a bit more over the last two years, but I think this speaks to how much lower beef cow slaughter has been running. For the 12 months from July 2024 to June 2025, nearly 650,000 fewer beef cows were harvested than from July 2023 to June 2024. I think it’s likely that beef cow inventory was down by more than that from July 2023 to July 2024 but increased over the last 12 months due to lower slaughter levels. Heifers held for beef cow replacement were down 3% from 2023, which is a decrease of 100,000 head. The best way to think about this number is to consider it as a percentage of beef cow inventory. When looking at it that way, our heifer retention pace is lower than it was in 2023.”

(USDA-NASS)

Andrew Griffith, University of Tennessee
“I don’t really know what to say about these reports. A lot of the time we discuss industry estimates compared to USDA estimates. The main thing in this report is we saw lower beef cow numbers, a smaller calf crop, and fewer cattle on feed. The one thing I feel certain is that the competition for cattle is going to be fierce the next couple of years. I think we will see closures, idling or consolidation of packing plants and feedlots. Even if that does not happen, capacity utilization is going to be small. This also feeds back to stocker and backgrounders who will be growing a smaller number of cattle than usual, which will influence profitability.”

Josh Maples, Mississippi State University
“I don’t see significant signs of expansion from these reports. Heifers held for beef cow replacement were down 3% from the 2023 report. The 5% drop in heifers placed into feedlots during the last quarter is the number that jumps out as the question mark. But, taken with all of the other data, I’m not yet ready to call it an obvious sign of expansion. After accounting for fewer imports from Mexico, heifer placement is down 2.5% during the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. It could just be that we have fewer heifers due to smaller calf crops and that there are some differences in placement timing. The overall percentage of heifers on feed ticked back up to 38% after dropping in the previous quarter. I think 2025 is likely a stabilization year for beef cow inventory, with 2026 having the higher odds for modest expansion if pasture conditions cooperate.”

Hannah Baker, University of Florida
“While the 2025 July inventory report does not include state breakdowns, the numbers reported in both the inventory and Cattle on Feed reports reflect what is happening across Florida: Some producers are thinking of and starting to retain heifers, but the majority are still capitalizing on record-high calf prices. Beef replacement heifers are down 3% from 2023, and the beef cow herd is smaller by 350,000 head. The number of other heifers over 500 lb. is also 3% lower than 2023, meaning there is also a smaller pool of heifers to pull from for any impulse breeding in the back half of 2025 and early 2026. Signs of slow heifer retention are also shown in the Cattle on Feed report, where the number of heifers on feed was 5% lower than 2024, but the percentage of heifers on feed rose by 0.5% since April to 38.1%.”

James Mitchell, University of Arkansas
“A statistic I like to track is the ratio of July beef replacement heifers relative to the previous year’s calf crop (as estimated in the January report). I use this as a crude indicator of retention and potential herd expansion. The estimate for July 2025 is 11.04%, nearly identical to July 2023 at 11.03%. For comparison, the ratio was 14.32% in July 2015. We’re not there yet, which makes me wonder: With strong profitability over the last few years, are producers reinvesting in other ways — farm infrastructure, equipment, land?”

Charley Martinez, University of Tennessee
“It’s unfortunate that we didn’t have last year’s July 1 report. But, when looking at the percentage of changes between 2023 and 2025, I think the trends were expected. The most interesting statistic to me was the expected 2025 calf crop of 33.1 million head. The calf crop was 33.56 million in 2023, and 33.52 million in 2024. The calf crop expectation highlights the impacts of the shrinking herd over the last two years, and the expected tighter feeder calf supply signals continued elevated feeder calf prices. This report also starts the excitement for the Jan. 1 report, where we will have statistics and more detailed data.”

“It’s bullish,” Close summarizes, “both the on-feed and inventory reports, I don’t think there’s any getting around the fact they’re bullish.”

Your Next Read: USDA Cattle of Feed Bullish, Inventory Report Confirms Record Low Herd

Several Factors are Driving Strong Cull Cow Markets

Tue, 22 Jul 2025 10:33:41 GMT

Cattle markets have been impressive across the board in 2025, and cull cow markets have been no exception. The monthly average price for 80-85% average dress boning cows in Kentucky set a record in June and may set a new record in July.

June 2025 prices were 16% higher than June of 2024 and 62% higher than June of 2023. This is a trend across all regions of the U.S. as demand remains strong and cull cow supplies remain tight.

I want to briefly discuss some specific factors behind these prices levels:

The most obvious reason for the extremely high cull cow prices has been sharp reductions in slaughter levels. As I write this in late July, beef cow slaughter is down 17% year-to-date from 2024. If this trend continued through the end of 2025, it would represent a reduction in beef cow slaughter of more than 450,000 cows.

The beef cow herd was culled hard from 2021 to 2023, so it is likely that a lot of poor performers had already exited the herd. And of course, the current calf market is encouraging producers to hold on to cows a bit longer than usual. It is also worth pointing out that dairy cow slaughter is down 7% for the year, which is also contributing to the tight supplies.

Consumer demand has been strong and has probably been overshadowed a bit by discussion of tight supplies. Ground beef represents a significant share of beef consumption, and a large portion of cull cow slaughter is targeted for the ground beef market. It is also likely that high retail prices are pushing some consumers towards lower priced ground beef, as opposed to higher priced cuts. While supply is absolutely a major factor, strong demand has added fuel to the fire.

Finally, there is another element that has not gotten as much attention, but that I consider to be significant. Multiple dynamics have pushed cattle to higher slaughter weights over the last few years and that has led to a substantial increase in quality grades.

For some perspective, 10.6% of cattle graded Prime in 2024 and that percentage is running at about 11.8% thus far in 2025. This increase in marbling also means there is an increase in the amount of fat in the trim, which creates additional demand for lean trim to be used for blending. Since cull cows are a source of lean trim, this has also contributed to strong cull cow markets.