Mixed Signals—What’s With This Cattle Market?

Cattle Markets
Click above to here Top Third's Craig VanDyke talk what's making the cattle market take this stop-and-go pattern. ( AgDay )

Additional cattle are continuing to come to feedyards, but fortunately there’s been several market factors at play to help offset beef supplies, at least for now.

“This market has stayed very current,” says Craig VanDyke, analyst with Top Third Ag Marketing, told Clinton Griffiths on AgDay.

Demand has been fantastic both domestically and foreign, he adds. April beef exports were 16% higher than 2017. (Read more coverage about beef exports here and here.)

“Right now we’re looking at export demand 2018 versus 2017 about 10% higher,” VanDyke says. “While we were coming into a potentially very scary period of just where this cattle market would head, which is no stranger to volatility, you know we’ve done a lot of things to help offset that. “

The next step will be seeing how packers respond, as they have fantastic margins right now and are processing as much beef as possible.

But will this counter-seasonal strength mean come back to hit us later this summer?

“If this continues the way we expect it to, August and October could be some problem months,” he says. Holes or expansions tend to move a bit faster than we all expect.”

Click above to hear VanDyke’s analysis on how recent trade issues are affecting prices.