Import/export data support prices
By Greg Henderson
| Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Through the first quarter of 2010, beef exports increased while beef imports declined. Those facts provided support to a spring rally that also gained strength from tight domestic supplies.
Imports
Imports of beef to the United States totaled 573 million pounds during the first three months of the year, a 19 percent decline from the same period last year. Analysts project a similar decline for the remaining months of the year. Total U.S. beef imports are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds during 2010, which would represent a 5 percent decline year-over-year. Tight exportable supplies from Oceania, coupled with a weakened U.S. dollar relative to Oceania currencies, are the primary contributors for declining U.S. beef imports.
First-quarter beef imports from Australia and New Zealand were down 41 and 18 percent, respectively, from the same quarter last year.
Imports from North American trading partners were up for first-quarter 2010 but not enough to offset declines from Oceania and South America. First-quarter imports from Canada were up 5 percent over last year. U.S. beef imports in 2011 are expected to total 2.79 billion pounds, almost a 12 percent increase from the projections for 2010.
Exports
Beef exports during the first three months of this year were 25 percent higher than last year. This growth is the result of increasing sales in several Asian markets, notably Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. First-quarter 2010 exports to Japan and South Korea improved 30 and 9 percent, respectively, above year-earlier levels.
Analysts claim the strength of the Australian and New Zealand dollars, coupled with strong U.S. beef marketing campaigns in Japan and South Korea, have shifted some of the market share away from Australia and New Zealand, the United States’ primary competitors for these markets. The result is respective U.S. market share increases of 54 and 31 percent in Japan and South Korea.
Exports to Canada during the first three months of 2010 increased nearly 20 percent from year-earlier levels. Exports to Canada, the United States’ second-leading export market, are fueled by the declining U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar.
U.S. beef exports to all countries for 2010 are forecast at 2.1 billion pounds, an increase of more than 10 percent over last year.
